Next Indonesia Leader Went From ‘Poison Pill’ to Affable Grandpa

Philip J. Heijmans and Norman Harsono
·5 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Once described by US diplomats as a “poison pill” ex-general accused of human-rights abuses, Prabowo Subianto remade his image as an affable grandpa to win over Indonesia’s young electorate and is set to become the next president of Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.

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The 72-year-old defense minister secured around 60% support, according to unofficial quick counts from multiple independent pollsters. That’s more than the 50% needed to win Wednesday’s vote outright and avoid a run-off that his backers feared could see victory slip from his grasp. The election commission will declare the official result in coming weeks.

The win marks a stunning turnaround for a three-time presidential candidate with a reputation for being temperamental, pounding tables and fiery nationalist speeches.

Prabowo, the former son-in-law of Indonesia’s late dictator Suharto, was fired from his post as lieutenant general in 1998 amid accusations of human rights abuses.

He was accused of the abduction and disappearance of student activists during the pro-democracy protests that eventually led to Suharto’s resignation. Prabowo also headed the army’s special forces unit, Kopassus, and was accused of rights violations in the former province of East Timor.

Prabowo has denied any wrongdoing, saying his missions were sanctioned by superiors.

Classified diplomatic cables from the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta, written in 2008 after Prabowo entered politics and made public by WikiLeaks, describe him as ambitious and unpredictable.

“To say that Prabowo has a controversial reputation is an understatement,” reads an August 2008 cable. “His direct links with gross human rights violations under Suharto make him a poison pill for many Indonesians,” reads one from November 2008. Prabowo was for years denied a visa to the US.

In the years after his dismissal from the military, Prabowo lived in exile for several years before successfully casting himself as a businessman and farmer.

In 2014, the first of two times he lost a presidential election to Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, he dismissed worries about his past.

“Nelson Mandela was blacklisted from the United States at one time,” Prabowo said in a interview aired on Al-Jazeera at the time. “Am I not in good company?”

The last time, in 2019, he fought a bitter months-long campaign to overturn the results before eventually joining Jokowi’s cabinet as defense minister, a move aimed at healing the nation after the campaign’s acrimony led to deadly clashes in Jakarta.

This election cycle, Prabowo recast himself on social media as an affable, cat-loving, grandfatherly figure in a bid to win over the under-40s that makes up more than half of the nation’s 200 million registered voters.

Many see the president’s implicit support for Prabowo as Jokowi’s way of continuing to influence politics — and cement his legacy — after he steps down later this year.

Indonesia’s trillion-dollar economy, dubbed by Deutsche Bank as a “rising economic powerhouse” in a recent report, has grown at an annual average of 5% over the past decade — except during the pandemic.

Jokowi poured money into infrastructure and attempted to move the archipelago up the global metal supply chain — which has led to a surge in foreign direct investment in the last five years and created much-needed jobs. His goal is to make Indonesia a developed country by 2045.

Prabowo has pledged to continue on that path. “We are not ashamed to say: we are team Jokowi,” Prabowo said in a speech at a rally in Jakarta prior to the election. “We’ve been selling our natural wealth to foreign nations for minimal prices. That doesn’t make sense. We have to process all our natural wealth on Indonesian soil.”

While most analysts expect him to continue many of Jokowi’s policies, given Prabowo’s past volatility, temper and single-minded pursuit of the top job, there is no guarantee that he will faithfully execute Jokowi’s vision, or be as pliable as the Indonesian president might like him to be.

As Jokowi’s defense minister, Prabowo largely kept a low profile. Tasked with modernizing the country’s bloated and creaking military, he focused on the acquisition of big-ticket weapons platforms from a variety of countries, which his critics questioned for interoperability issues. Broadly, they say the challenges faced by Indonesia’s military remain unchanged under Prabowo.

Over the past few months, Prabowo consistently led the polls through the months-long campaign against former governors Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.

Prabowo did so, in part, by securing Jokowi’s support, most importantly by picking his 36-year-old son to be his running mate.

Prabowo has pushed some ideas beyond promising to continue Jokowi’s policies. He’s pledged a 400 trillion rupiah ($25.5 billion) free school lunch and milk program as his flagship economic policy. It’s an expansion of his 2019 campaign promise to provide free milk for school children.

The program is expected to help boost economic growth to 6%-7% by helping local farmers and by freeing up more income, according to Drajad Wibowo, an economist affiliated with Prabowo’s campaign. His team has also said that the program won’t fuel inflation or raise debt.

Prabowo could “very significantly” expand social welfare measures including food and nutrition programs as well as public health infrastructure, according to Doug Ramage, managing director for BowerGroupAsia, Indonesia.

“We must keep in mind that there’s no precedent of a president affording their predecessor much influence,” Ramage said. “So we should expect a Prabowo presidency, not a third Jokowi term.”

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