Tropical Storm Odette forms off the East Coast

Tropical Storm Odette formed off the East Coast of the United States on Friday, becoming the 15th named storm of the season. Although it is expected to remain out to sea, it will stir some dangerous impacts along the Atlantic coast into this weekend.

By Sept. 17 last year, the 21st named storm, Vicky, had just formed. However, while the basin is behind last year's hyperactive season, it's still double the average pace of seven named storms by Sept. 16.

The system, which AccuWeather forecasters have been monitoring since this past weekend, had drifted to within about 100 miles southeast of the Carolina coast as of Friday midday. Satellite images revealed that a circulation had developed in the lowest part of the atmosphere where tropical systems dwell.

The tropical storm had previously been struggling to get its act together into Friday morning due to disruptive northerly winds and dry air sweeping in from the west, but there were a few factors that allowed it to strengthen into a tropical storm by Friday evening, one of which was favorable water temperatures.

Waters in the Gulf Stream are in the 80s F offshore of the Carolinas and near 80 off the mid-Atlantic coast this week. Water temperatures of 78 degrees or higher are considered favorable to allow a tropical storm to develop and strengthen.

There is also a system over the east-central Atlantic that may soon become a tropical depression and storm. The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is Peter.

AccuWeather meteorologists believe that while the center of Odette will stay offshore of the mid-Atlantic and New England regions, enough of a circulation will develop to stir winds and create waves that propagate outward from the center of the storm on Saturday.

The conditions will create moderate wave action and more frequent and stronger rip currents than on typical September days. Beachgoers and boaters from the Carolinas to Massachusetts are urged to abide by restrictions set forth by local officials.

Along with gusty breezes and rough surf conditions, minor coastal flooding at times of high tide can occur. Low-lying roads on the barrier islands and in coastal areas, in general, may take on water.

Earlier in September, major Hurricane Larry brought punishing waves and strong rip currents to much of the U.S. East Coast even though it was about 1,000 miles out to sea. This system will be much weaker, but it will track much closer than Larry did so waves generated will not have as much distance to dissipate.

As Odette strengthens, wave action will increase even if the system turns away from the coast of New England this weekend.

While still dubbed as Invest 96L, the tropical system produced showers and thunderstorms in eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. The system has also allowed a front to stall in the mid-Atlantic. Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms that ignite along the front have the potential to bring localized flash flooding through the end of the week. Torrential downpours triggered flash flooding in the Washington, D.C., and Richmond, Virginia, areas on Thursday.

"The vast majority of the heavy rain and severe thunderstorms associated with the brewing tropical system will likely remain offshore of the U.S. as the system is likely to remain lopsided while moving northward along the mid-Atlantic coast into Friday night," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.

Similar to eastern North Carolina, some drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms associated with the budding tropical system are forecast to pivot into southeastern New England into Saturday.

Rough surf, showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact Bermuda into this weekend. The storm may also track close enough to Atlantic Canada to bring rain and gusty winds to part of the island of Newfoundland from Sunday to Monday. Just last weekend, Larry made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane near South East Bight, on Newfoundland, where it brought high winds, heavy rain and pounding seas.

Never-ending Nicholas

Farther to the west, the old circulation associated with Tropical Rainstorm Nicholas was still crawling over western Louisiana, days after moving onshore near Matagorda Bay, Texas, Monday night.

The old center will only directly produce clouds and spotty showers in the vicinity, but moisture will continue to stream in farther to the east from the Gulf of Mexico over the Southeastern states, AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. Moisture from the Atlantic is likely to factor into downpours as well.

"Since there are no strong steering winds to disperse this moisture, drenching showers and thunderstorms will continue to dampen areas from Louisiana and Mississippi to northern Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas through this weekend and into Monday," Rayno stated.

Nicholas was responsible for 7-11 inches of rain in Louisiana through Wednesday. Due to wet ground, most recently from Nicholas but also still in Ida's wake from late August, any downpour that persists can lead to localized flash flooding. The pattern can still squeeze out a general 1-3 inches of rain over the Southeast with local amounts to 5 inches, especially along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast. Should downpours linger over some of the watersheds across the interior, river flooding can occur as well.

And heavy rainfall won't be the only leftover risk. Isolated severe thunderstorms that could produce a tornado or waterspout could erupt in the Southeast.

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is still behind the pacing of the record 2020 season, but it continues to run well ahead of the average pace. Based on data from 1991-2020, an average hurricane season produces 14.4 named storms, of which an average of 7.2 develop into hurricanes and 3.2 of those storms become major hurricanes.

The season is just past the halfway point, and already 15 named tropical storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger) are in the books for 2021. The number of named systems and major hurricanes has already reached the end-of-season averages. In comparison, the entire 2020 season brought 30 named systems with 14 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes.

AccuWeather is projecting 20-25 named tropical storms with as many as 10 hurricanes and five to seven major hurricanes in 2021. One or two more systems may have a direct impact on the U.S., following eight so far.

Should the season run out of the designated 21 names for 2021, a secondary list of names has been prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and will replace the Greek alphabet for use as supplemental names. The hyperactive 2005 and 2020 seasons were the only two to use Greek letters to name storms beyond the original designated list.

For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, DIRECTVstream, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeatherNOW is streaming on Roku and XUMO.