NFC Playoff Picture: Cowboys looking for 1 of 2 Sunday-result combos

The Dallas Cowboys did their part, now they have to wait for the results of three different Sunday afternoon games to learn who they will be facing in the wild card round. By virtue of a 51-26 thumping of the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, Dallas earned their 12th victory of the 2021 season and finished the NFC East at 6-0 for just the third time in club history.

The Eagles, already locked into the No. 6 or No. 7 seed and without definitive control over which seed it would get, put 12 players on the COVID list and then rested almost every other starter. Dallas had most of their offense intact, but was missing numerous defensive starters. It’s anticipated they’ll be whole once the playoffs start, however, so now it’s about who they will host at AT&T Stadium. Here’s how those possibilities are configured based on the Sunday games of importance. These three late-afternoon-window results are all that matter, everything else is noise.

Los Angeles Rams (12-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (9-7), 3:25 pm Central

This is the game with the best chance to end up in Dallas’ favor, but by itself a Rams’ loss is meaningless.

Currently the Rams hold the No. 2 position in the NFC, having the tiebreaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by virtue of a Week 3, 34-24 win at SoFi Stadium. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers have a decided advantage over Sean McVay’s Rams, San Francisco holds a 6-3 advantage head-to-head and have won the last five matchups.

That includes a road romp earlier in mid-November, 31-10.

Should San Francisco sweep the season series, that means the Rams and Cowboys would have identical records at 12-5 and would put Dallas ahead in tiebreaker scenarios due to superior conference record, 10-2 against 8-4.

If Los Angeles wins, Dallas is guaranteed to finish as the No. 4 seed, no matter anything else. A loss helps, but would also put the Rams in position to lose the NFC West, which would mean Dallas has another contender to tend with.

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-10), 3:25 pm Central

The loss to the Cardinals in Week 17 ended Dallas’ four-game winning streak and gave Arizona the head-to-head tiebreaker. By itself, a Cardinals’ loss doesn’t help Dallas’ seeding much because Arizona loses the NFC West, earns the top wild-card round and returns to Dallas for a rematch.

The Cowboys need the Cardinals to lose the NFC West AND for the Rams to come down to Dallas’ 12-5 mark in order for their to be any upward mobility for the Cowboys’ seeding. If Arizona wins, Dallas is locked into the No. 4 seed regardless of anything else.

The Cardinals handled the Seahawks pretty handily on November 21, 23-13 in Seattle. QB Russell Wilson was in just his second game back and was still clearly affected by his finger injury. Over his last two games he seems to be back to normal and there’s a strong possibility this will be his final start for Seattle, so perhaps there’s some magic here.

ONLY if these two results go the Cowboys way can the third game have an impact.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4) @ Carolina Panthers (5-11), 3:25 pm Central

On paper this game appears to be a win for the Bucs before they even hit the field, but there could be factors involved. Tampa is dealing with the Antonio Brown turmoil from last week’s on-field tantrum and this week’s release. It could boost them to no longer have the distraction, or it could be something that impacted their focus.

Just two weeks ago, the Bucs beat the Panthers in Carolina 32-6, so hopes aren’t high. However the Panthers just told head coach Matt Rhule he will return in 2022, so maybe there’s a boost of confidence and Carolina can pull off the season-ending upset.

If the other results don’t go Dallas’ way, this game means nothing. Tampa beat Dallas in Week 1, so a head-to-head tiebreaker means the Bucs get the higher seed. If Dallas, Tampa and Arizona all end up with the same record, Dallas is eliminated from the tiebreaker because they lost to both; that sits ahead of the conference record tiebreaker.

Only if Dallas ends up in a three-way tie with the Bucs and Rams can Dallas move up to the No. 2 seed.

Result Combinations and where it seeds Dallas

So here’s how the combination of results could impact Dallas’ seeding.

Dallas is the No. 4 seed if:

LA-SF | SEA-ARI | CAR-TB
LA-SF | SEA-ARI | CAR-TB
LA-SF | SEA-ARI | CAR-TB
LA-SF | SEA-ARI | CAR-TB
LA-SF | SEA-ARI | CAR-TB
LA-SF | SEA-ARI | CAR-TB

Dallas is the No. 3 seed if:

LA-SF | SEA-ARI | CAR-TB

Dallas is the No. 2 seed if:

LA-SF | SEA-ARI | CAR-TB

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