It was a thrilling and wild divisional round of the NFL playoffs. All four games were won on the last play of the game. The total margin of victory across all four games was just 15 points, breaking the previous divisional round record of 18 points. The Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all went down as favorites. The only favorite to actually win their game was the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, they're favorites to win it all at BetMGM.
Kansas City is the betting favorite
In late October, the Kansas City Chiefs were 3-4 through the first seven games of their season. The defense was a historical level of bad while the offense was in a clear funk. It did not look promising for the Chiefs at all. On Oct. 26, Kansas City was 16-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. They were below teams like the Cardinals, Ravens and Packers. They had similar odds to teams like the Chargers and Browns. There were just too many visible flaws to think that they had what it took to win a Super Bowl this season.
They then proceeded to win nine of their final 10 games and finish the season with a 12-5 record. They demolished the Pittsburgh Steelers during the wild-card round. Then, we got the game of the year.
It felt like both the Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills won and lost the game three times each in the final two minutes. Both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen led two scoring drives each in the final two minutes to force overtime. With the way the offenses were playing, we all knew the winner of the coin toss in overtime was going to win the game. Josh Allen called tails, the coin landed heads. A few minutes later, Mahomes found Travis Kelce in the end zone to send Kansas City to its fourth straight AFC championship game.
Heading into the weekend, the Green Bay Packers were favorites to win the Super Bowl. They went down to the San Francisco 49ers. The one seed in the AFC, the Tennessee Titans, also went down. The Rams eliminated Tom Brady. As a result, Kansas City is now the favorite to win it all. The Chiefs are currently +120 favorites to win the Super Bowl. That line implies the Chiefs have a 45.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons.
Rest of the field
With three underdogs winning outright this past weekend, a lot of popular bets have gone down the drain. Entering the weekend, the Packers, Buccaneers and Bills were the three biggest liabilities for BetMGM. All three teams were eliminated over the past few days. With the Chiefs installed as the new betting favorites, the rest of the odds look like this:
Los Angeles Rams +200
San Francisco 49ers +450
Cincinnati Bengals +800
The Rams are 3.5-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship game. The Bengals are a 7.5-point underdog against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Chiefs-Rams seems like the most likely Super Bowl matchup, but as we saw this past weekend, an underdog can always bark. San Francisco and Cincinnati pulled off upsets in the divisional round and will be looking to do the same Sunday.