In Week 5, we saw one big favorite go down and three others survive by the skin of their teeth. Las Vegas lost to Chicago as a -225 favorite while Minnesota, New England and Baltimore just barely escaped with wins.
Last week, we correctly identified as the Raiders as the most likely favorite to lose. This week, there are 7 favorites priced at -200 or higher on the moneyline at BetMGM. Which teams are most likely to get tripped up this week?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
The Buccaneers are -300 favorites on the road against the Eagles on Thursday night. This has the potential to be a close game. The Eagles defense has been stingy against the pass, highlighted by their three interceptions of Sam Darnold last week. On the other side of the ball, Jalen Hurts has outperformed expectations and he has the capability of taking advantage of a depleted Buccaneers defense. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will be without Sean Murphy-Bunting, Carlton Davis, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers head on the road, where they find themselves a -200 favorite against the Chicago Bears. Chicago's defense and their ability to sack the quarterback has quickly become a story early in the season. They lead the league with 17 sacks. The Packers might be getting Josh Myers and Elgton Jenkins back this week, but both are banged up on the offensive line. On the other side of the football, Chicago's offense is starting to show signs of life under Justin Fields. Backing a road favorite in a divisional game is always a risky proposition.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts currently sit with a 1-4 record, but that hasn't stopped them from being massive -500 favorites at home against the Houston Texans. Indianapolis knows this is a must-win game, so this shouldn't be a spot where they lack focus or overlook their opponent. Nevertheless, any time a bad team comes into town, it's a concern. It seems like a potential fragile group in Indianapolis after Carson Wentz commented on the need for leadership to step up in the locker room. On the other side, Houston almost pulled off an upset as a 9-point underdog last weekend against the Patriots. Davis Mills flashed some ability that we didn't know he had.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Los Angeles is the biggest moneyline favorite of the week, currently sitting at -600 as they hit the road to face the New York Giants. This is definitely a sleepy spot for the Rams, heading east to face a poor New York team. This is their second straight game on the road, which is a spot they haven't faired well in. In the last two seasons under Sean McVay, the Rams are 0-4 in the second leg of back-to-back road games. I feel like the Rams always have a game or two every year where they just don't show up, such as when they lost to the Jets last season. The Giants have been bitten by the injury bug, but there's hope quarterback Daniel Jones will play.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
The Chiefs are once again in the favorite role, as they are -300 favorites in Washington when they meet the Football Team. Do we really need to remind you or inform you why the Chiefs are a risky bet these days? Their defense is putrid and they will do everything in their power to keep the other team in their game. Logically, it makes sense to think Taylor Heinicke won't be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. However, the Chiefs defense will do everything in their power to ensure that he can in fact keep up.
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves as -225 favorites at home against the Seattle Seahawks. Yes, Geno Smith is a tremendous downgrade from Russell Wilson, but Geno looked somewhat competent in his relief appearance against the Rams. Smith is a once highly regarded prospect out of West Virginia that even flashed his ability at times as a starter in this league. I don't think this is a case of a back-up outright killing a season. Sure, it'll be a lot harder, but there's still hope. As for the Steelers, their offense finally had a good game against the Broncos last weekend. Forgive me for needing to see more from Ben Roethlisberger and company before I trust them.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
The Buffalo Bills are -250 road favorites in Tennessee against the Titans this week. Tennessee actually blew Buffalo out last season when the teams met, winning the game by a score of 42-16. In most normal situations, that result would be front of mind for the Bills and would lead to a motivated bunch. While this still might be the case, that task got a little harder. The Bills find themselves in a potential let-down spot after their big road win against Kansas City last week. Additionally, I think Tennessee is a good team and expect them to be in the playoffs. Their passing attack has gotten off to a slow start, but I expect that to change now that it appears both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones will play this week.
This list highlights my confidence in this week's favorites in descending order.
2. Los Angeles
3. Tampa Bay
5. Green Bay
6. Kansas City