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Often when talking about betting sports with others, you'll hear comments such as "the public is all over that pick" or "that's such a square pick." Being too aligned with general consensus is usually viewed as a negative thing in the sports betting world for one reason or another. In fact, some bettors' whole betting strategy is based on "fading the public."
Well, in Week 6, the public absolutely dominated. Wins and covers by the Chiefs, Packers, Vikings, Rams, Cowboys and Cardinals led sportsbooks to one of their worst weekends in recent memory. With the public on such a hot streak winning wise, which side are they rolling with on Monday night where the Buffalo Bills are 6-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans?
We are all Bills mafia
The Buffalo Bills are on an absolutely dominant tear over the past four weeks. After losing their opener to the Steelers, there were questions about whether Buffalo was going to regress after their impressive season last year. They've shut down those questions pretty quickly.
Over their last four games, the Bills have outscored opponents 156-41. To put that into context, on average, they are scoring nearly 40 points per game while giving up just 10. They've shutout two of their past four opponents. They have a 4-0 record against the spread during this stretch, beating the closing line by an average of 22 points per game.
It should come as no surprise that 84% of the action is on Buffalo to cover the spread on Monday night. The line opened with the Bills as a 4.5-point favorite but that number has ballooned up to the Bills being a 6-point favorite due to the overwhelming support they've gotten in this spot.
There are two concerns for the Bills in this spot. One, they're coming off a huge win over the Chiefs. Will there be any sort of letdown from Buffalo? Secondly, the Titans will be getting Julio Jones back from injury and now their offensive weapons are all healthy. Tennessee beat Buffalo by a score of 42-16 last season, so they're more than capable of hanging with the Bills.
Money is hitting the under but no movement
Nearly 70% of the betting handle is on this game to go under the total of 53.5 points. Despite that, the total has not moved since opening.
I'm a bit surprised to see the support for the under in this spot. Bettors are usually quick to bet the over in hopes for a fun and exciting game, especially in a primetime spot. This game has all the makings of a potential shootout.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are basically scoring at will over the past few weeks and I wouldn't expect this Titans' defense to be the ones to figure them out. On the other side, Derrick Henry is being Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill has both of his star receivers back from injury in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. You would think they'd be able to put up a few points and carry their weight in terms of the total as well.
Derrick Henry a popular prop bet
There's few players more dominant in this sport than Derrick Henry. Once again, he's a clear favorite to lead the league in rushing while handling a significant workload. Despite Tennessee's underdog status, bettors are riding the Titans' powerful back in the prop market.
Henry is currently +550 to score the first touchdown of the game and he's listed at -200 to score a touchdown at any point in the game. These are currently the two most popular prop bets for this game at BetMGM.
Henry isn't the only star player getting some love in the prop market, as Bills' receiver Stefon Diggs is a popular choice as well. Buffalo to win the game with Diggs scoring a touchdown is currently +100 at BetMGM. Diggs established himself as a top-end receiver last season, but he has just one touchdown through the first five games of this season.