NFL DFS Single Games: TNF Week 7

Spencer Limbach

Here we go with the Single Game NFL DFS slate for Thursday Night Football of Week 7. Tonight’s matchup is between the Chiefs and Broncos, as Kansas City is listed as three-point road favorites with an over/under of 49.  

We’ll highlight the top picks and best bargains to assemble a cash-inducing lineup. On top of that, the “additional notes” section will feature several tournament selections while adding context to the rest of this slate. 

We will be producing these articles for Thursday, Sunday, and Monday primetime matchups every week, so be sure to bookmark the Rotoworld Daily page for those occasions - not to mention all the other fantastic daily fantasy content. 

TOP PICKS

Patrick Mahomes - QB - Kansas City 

Do we really need to talk at length about Mahomes? He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league - let alone this single-game DFS slate. Sure, Mahomes has been somewhat mediocre in recent outings, but his “down” performances (18-20 FP) are actually pretty good in the grand scheme of things. Facing the Broncos in Denver is a difficult matchup on paper, but the Kansas City QB had no problems with this divisional foe last season while tossing for 607 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception through two games. He has a great chance to keep that going with more weapons at his disposal (Tyreek Hill back). 

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Travis Kelce - TE - Kansas City 

Kelce vs. Hill will be a key decision point in this slate. Kelce is marginally cheaper on both sides with a realistic opportunity to post better numbers. Neither finds themselves in a comforting matchup, but Kelce has destroyed the Broncos in the past. As Ian Hartitz noted in his WR/CB Matchups article, Kelce has gone 8-101-0, 11-160-1, 7-133-1, 7-78-1 and 6-79-1 in his last five against Denver. 

Courtland Sutton - WR - Denver 

Sutton isn’t in the same “top play” category as Mahomes/Kelce, but I wanted to identify him as an important mid-range lift at a higher priority than similarly priced DFS assets. Sutton has come on strong this season, averaging eight targets, five catches, and 80 yards per contest in 2019. He has a good chance to exceed all of those totals on Thursday, as Denver could pass more than usual while trying to keep pace with Kansas City’s explosive offense. It should be noted that Sutton is gaining momentum as a legitimate fantasy lift as fellow WR Emmanuel Sanders fades into the background with two catches, four targets, and nine yards over his past two outings. 

BEST BARGAINS

Royce Freeman - RB - Denver 

The scales have tipped in favor of RB Phillip Lindsay, who has seen 19 and 17 touches respectively over the past two games. However, Freeman still holds a sizable role in this split backfield, racking up 7.7 and 10.1 fantasy points (half PPR) with 16 and 15 touches in his last two outings. As you can see, his volume is similar to Lindsay, but the latter has produced four touchdowns over his last four games. It’s worth noting that Freeman has looked like the better receiving back this season, piling up 21 catches for 145 yards with 26 targets. If Denver falls behind while resorting to their passing attack, Freeman could see more snaps, targets, and fantasy points. No matter how you slice it, he’s a plausible bargain on Thursday. 

Demarcus Robinson - WR - Kansas City 

Robinson is one of my favorite tournament targets who can also be utilized as a cash game value filler. He was held without a catch on four targets last week, and most DFS enthusiasts will avoid him due to that goose egg. Sure, Hill’s return will cut into his fantasy production, but that’s baked into the bargain salary. Per Ian Hartitz, Robinson held an 89% snap rate last week compared to 59% for Byron Pringle, 55% for Mecole Hardman, and 50% for Hill. It’s possible that Hill’s snap rate will rise as he becomes healthier, but that will seemingly come at the expense of Hardman - if last Sunday’s game is any indication. Also, the Broncos could devote their best defensive resources to limiting Hill, opening up looks for Robinson, Pringle, and Kelce. Keep in mind that Sammy Watkins’ (ruled out) absence should keep Robinson on the field. Add it all up, and Robinson is an interesting bounce-back candidate on Thursday. 

ADDITIONAL NOTES

Let’s take a closer look at the Denver passing game, where Joe Flacco (QB - DEN) makes sense through all formats with the game flow and matchup on his side ... Emmanuel Sanders (WR - DEN) is battling a knee injury, and playing on a short week doesn’t help. He should be avoided in cash game lineups while only looking to him as a tournament differentiator who can hopefully reel in a long pass or two … If Sanders remains ineffective, Sutton (mentioned above) and DaeSean Hamilton (WR - DEN) will continue to pick up the slack. Even then, he’s nothing more than a tournament bargain. The same can be said for Noah Fant (TE - DEN), who has plenty of talent - but not enough volume to garner cash game status. 

Tyreek Hill (WR - KC) will draw tough coverage against Denver CB Chris Harris on Thursday. He still has the ability to break things open on any given play, but the difficult assignment has me leaning towards Kelce > Hill for the majority of my action … Byron Pringle (WR - KC) finds himself along the same lines as the aforementioned-likes of KC WR Robinson above. He could stand to benefit if Denver keeps Hill under wraps, but the fantasy floor is otherwise pretty low (like Robinson). 

Phillip Lindsay (RB - DEN) is pricey due to his recent streak of four touchdowns over four games. Still, he’s a legitimate DFS play against a Kansas City team that allowed Carlos Hyde (26-116-1), Marlon Mack (29-132), Kerryon Johnson (26-125), Mark Ingram (16-103-3), and Josh Jacobs (12-99) to post solid lines this season. Lindsay seems to blend more favorably on DraftKings than FanDuel. 

Harrison Butker (K - KC) and Brandon McManus (K - DEN) are definitely in play as serviceable value fillers. It goes without saying that Butker is the preferred option with a higher team total and better offense to give him several attempts. As is the case seemingly every week, both kickers are underpriced on DK.