NFL Divisional playoffs: Four games, one upset. Our latest picks on road to Super Bowl! | Opinion
GREG COTE’S NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF PICKS
AFC
RAVENS (12-5, No. 5 seed) at BILLS (14-3, No. 2)
Line: BUF by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: BAL 27-23.
TV: 8:15 p.m. Saturday, NBC.
So the average age of the starting quarterbacks in AFC Divisional Round is 24 years 345 days — youngest ever. (That’s in contrast to NFC final four, which features three G.O.A.T-y graybeards). Here it’s young guns Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen in Saturday’s prime-time game. Here, too: An elite Ravens defense and a Buffs D that is mid-pack. And an awesome Baltimore ground game — 889 rush yards the past three games — vs. a Bills run defense that has been ordinary. (Are you beginning to get the feeling I smell an upset cooking?). Allen’s skill set presents a challenge the Crows have not faced since Patrick Mahomes in Week 3, but BAL’s blitz-heavy defense is hot and healthy. Not saying Bills are in just-happy-to-be-here mode after the first franchise playoff win since 1995, but Ravens’ postseason experience is an edge that matters. So is John Harbaugh’s history of eight career playoff road wins, an NFL record. Even in expected freezing, maybe snowy weather, I’m saddling up Baltimore’s run-game and clear edge on defense. Upset!
BROWNS (12-5, No. 6) at CHIEFS (14-2, No. 1)
Line: KC by 10.
Cote’s pick: KC 34-23.
TV: 3:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS.
Two more young QBs in Baker Mayfield vs. Patrick Mahomes in Sunday’s early game. The difference? One began this season still doubted. The other already has a map to Canton. Mayfield just led Cleveland to its first playoff win since 1994, but here’s a whole ‘nuther challenge: Reigning champion Kansas City, and Mahomes, off a bye week, against a coach (Andy Reid) who handles extra time to prepare like Itzhak Perlman handles a violin. KC expects to be healthier now and plans to have RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire and WR Tyreek Hill back, while Browns will have coach Kevin Stefanski and top guard Joel Bitonio back off the COVID list. Who wins this game is not a real question. Cleveland is the team that jumped out 28-0 over Pitt last week — but also the team outscored by 37-20 after that. The question is the high point spread, because Chiefs have been much better at winning than at covering lately. Browns have a shot to stay close if they can crank that ground game and limit Mahomes’ snaps, but my money is on a comfy KC advance.
NFC
RAMS (11-6, No. 6 seed) at PACKERS (13-3, No. 1)
Line: GB by 6 1/2.
Cote’s pick: GB 27-17.
TV: 4:35 p.m. Saturday, Fox.
League MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers revealed this week he’ll be an upcoming guest host on the TV game show “Jeopardy!” But is he in any real jeopardy (sorry) of losing Saturday’s early game? Short answer: Not much. This is the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense (Rams) visiting league’s No. 1 scoring offense (Pack). Something gotta give. Somebody gotta break. I don’t see it being Mr. Rodgers in his own neighborhood. This is a rested Gee Bees squad (after a top-seed bye) vs. a banged-up Rams team. LAR went deep into week not even sure who its QB would be, with Jared Goff (after thumb surgery) and John Wolford (stinger) both less than healthy. And Rams defensive star Aaron Donald will almost certainly be playing, but with a rib injury. Rams must dirty up Rodgers’ pocket and get RB Cam Akers going like last week vs. Seattle to have any shot. But Pack’s advantage over Rams on offense is greater than L.A.’s edge on D. Cheeseheads are in their 34th playoff season, surpassing Dallas for most ever. It won’t be ending Saturday.
BUCCANEERS (12-5, No. 5) at SAINTS (13-4, No. 2)
Line: NO by 3.
Cote’s pick: NO 31-26.
TV: 6:40 p.m. Sunday, Fox.
Tom Brady (581) and Drew Brees (571) have the most touchdown passes in NFL history. But who will be the G.O.A.T-ier in the Sunday evening finale of the Divisional Round? N’Awlins has beaten Tampa five in a row including a sweep this this season, winning comfortably in September and by a holy rout in November. But it’s debatable if that should make bettors confident in the Saints ... or in the Bucs and Brady to not lose three times to the same foe in one season. Brady and Brees both show occasional cracks of fallibility in their old age, so the defense that bothers one of them the most may steer this thing. The iffy status of Tampa RBs Ronald Jones and LeSean McCoy adds pressure for Brady, who just led TB to its first playoff win since 2002. In any case, Tampa has nobody like Alvin Kamara. This is the toughest pick of the Divisional Round for me; Bucs’ 6-0 run on the road adds to that. There is little question the law of averages favor Tampa and Brady. But my gut says minus-3 is a small hill to jump for the Saints and Brees in the home dome.
[Point spreads used are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday.]
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
A solid start last week to our playoff run. Our only outright miss was not seeing the Browns’ upset at Pittsburgh. The other blemish was a miss vs. the spread on Bills to cover (they didn’t). Our best pick: We bull’s-eyed the Rams’ outright upset win at Seattle to continue our hotness on Upsets of the Week (“Aawwk!”). This is our 30th season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald and we thank you for joining us on the ride. Let’s keep it going and run the damned table all the way to the Super Bowl!
Wild Card Playoffs: 5-1, .833 overall; 4-2, .667 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.
