NFL evaluators discuss whether Miami Dolphins should draft Alabama’s Smith or LSU’s Chase

The Miami Dolphins, with a choice of two top college wide receivers to fill their biggest need, probably couldn’t go wrong by taking Alabama’s 6-1 DeVonta Smith or LSU’s 6-1 Ja’Marr Chase with the third overall pick in April’s NFL Draft.

Chase, the 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner, set Southeastern Conference records in receiving yards and touchdowns in 2019, producing 84 catches, 1,780 yards (21.2 average) and 20 touchdowns in 14 games. That included 221 receiving yards in the national championship game (most ever in the playoff era) before he opted out of playing this past season.

Smith, meanwhile, had 117 catches for 1,856 yards (15.9 average) and 23 touchdowns in 13 games in 2020, won the Heisman Trophy and caught three touchdown passes (and finished with 215 receiving yards) in Alabama’s recent national championship game win against Ohio State.

Chase has the bigger build (207 pounds to Smith’s 175), which might or might not lead to greater durability. But Smith already has on-field chemistry with Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from playing together at Alabama.

So which would be the better option? I polled three long-term NFL evaluators; two former general managers told me they would pick Smith, while a veteran NFL scout opted for Chase.

Some feedback:

▪ The scout who preferred Chase said:

“He’s bigger, stronger, physical. I gave him one of the best grades I’ve ever given anyone. He can do it all, one of the best wide receivers in the draft I can remember. He outfights cornerbacks. He high-points the ball. When the ball is in the air, he has a mentality that it’s his.

“He can knock the [expletive] out of you as a blocker. He’s better than [Minnesota Vikings standout rookie and former LSU star] Justin Jefferson; he’s bigger and stronger. If you want a guy who can go underneath, go over the top, run after the catch, I’m taking Ja’Marr Chase.

“Smith is a very good player, but his size [weight/build] worries me. The DBs are getting bigger, and it wears you out” breaking free from press coverage at that size.

▪ One of the ex-GMs: “Smith and Chase are both outstanding playmakers, but I would take Smith because I think he will give you more big plays. I know he’s not the biggest guy but that doesn’t concern me.” The other former GM expressed similar sentiments.

▪ ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay favor Smith, but it’s close. Both advocate Miami taking him at No. 3.

“With 40 touchdown catches over the past three seasons, Smith has continued to get better every year,” Kiper said. “At 6-foot-1, 175 pounds, he has a slight frame — McShay has compared his body and style to Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, and I agree. Smith is going to be a superstar.”

But Kiper also loves Chase, noting “he’s stellar after the catch, breaking tackles and running away from defenders. Chase consistently beat first-round pick A.J. Terrell in the [2019 season] national title game, catching nine passes for 221 yards and two TDs. He’s an elite prospect.”

McShay’s breakdown: “Smith rarely drops anything in his vicinity, displays some jump after catch, explodes off the line, is crisp in his route running and tracks the ball well vertically….[Chase] is explosive off the line, a smooth route runner and tough in the open field. His body control stands out, and his speed is solid.”

▪ NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah says Chase “is the best pass catcher in the draft” and has Miami taking him third, with Smith going seventh to Detroit.

▪ Longtime draft analyst Dane Brugler of The Athletic reversed his order of the two receivers after the championship game, moving Smith to third and Chase to sixth:

“Tua Tagovailoa needs to learn the difference between college open and NFL open and reuniting him with Smith — who has elite ball skills and separation quickness — would speed up that learning curve,” Brugler wrote. “Chase has gear-changing acceleration and finishing skills.”

▪ But Pro Football Focus rates Chase the better prospect, noting “he’s every bit the prospect A.J. Green was a decade ago. Chase was doing what DeVonta Smith is doing this year when he was 19 years old, and he was doing it against guys like A.J. Terrell and Trevon Diggs, who are currently the best starters on their respective teams [Falcons, Cowboys, respectively]. His 24 deep catches that year is still the most we’ve seen in a single season.”

PFF ranks Chase the fifth-best prospect in the draft and Smith eighth.

▪ Per PFF, Chase had the most 15-plus-yard catches in a season since 2014 when he had 46 in 2019. Smith had 44 of those this past season.

▪ ESPN’s Chris Fowler said Smith’s appeal extends even beyond his talent.

“You look deeper, this guy is a model teammate, an alpha of that offense,” Fowler said on a recent conference call, praising “his contributions, his example, his quiet leadership, his toughness, his completeness as a player, his humility which is so refreshing.”

▪ Pro Football Focus draft analyst Mike Renner had this nugget: Receptions on screens: Smith (2020): 33 catches, 279 yards, two touchdowns; Chase (2019): five catches, 69 yards, no touchdowns…

A few other tidbits: With regard to Smith, Randy Moss (1997) is the only player in FBS history who had more touchdown catches in a season while averaging at least 15 yards a catch….

Smith was PFF’s highest-graded receiver from the slot this season, so he would be a weapon in the slot or on the boundary…

Smith had 39 catches in which he gained at least 10 yards after the reception; no other college receiver had more than 26 such receptions this past season. Chase averaged 49 yards of YAC alone per game in the regular season in 2019, which was in the top seven in the country that year. The Dolphins were 30th in YAC this season, so that skill would help….

Since 2014, there have been nine instances of a player hitting 200 receiving yards in the first half. Per PFF, Smith has three of those nine games.

FYI: Alabama’s Smith will not practice or play in the Senior Bowl next week, but will spend the week in meetings with Brian Flores and the rest of the Dolphins coaching staff. Chase is not involved in the Senior Bowl.

As of late Friday afternoon, the Dolphins hadn’t named a new offensive coordinator; tight ends coach George Godsey and running backs coach Eric Studesville are among those that have interviewed for the job.