NFL evaluators, quarterbacks weigh in on Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa and what he could become

Third of a three-part series

One thing that’s clear about Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa: Nine starts aren’t enough to judge what he can become, especially with a supporting cast that was subpar by NFL standards.

But that doesn’t stop NFL evaluators from speculating, and I solicited input from NFL people this past week after a rookie season in which he threw 11 touchdowns and five interceptions and produced an 87.1 passer rating, which was 26th.

I spoke with four former NFL general managers by phone in recent days; here’s their feedback on Tagovailoa, plus comments from two former NFL quarterbacks with network TV jobs:

▪ Former Washington and Houston general manager Charley Casserly, now an analyst for NFL Network:

“Tua has the potential to be a good starter. I thought he was at a disadvantage because of his receivers. At times, he didn’t have any of his top three guys. Also, his receivers don’t get great separation. He had a lot of tight-window throws, which is a compliment to him.

“He’s a young quarterback still learning. The best things he did were bootlegs and run pass options. He got the ball out quick and was accurate in the games I evaluated. He didn’t push it downfield, but you don’t know what he’s supposed to do. When I talked to people who played against them, they had a positive [impression] and that he was a young guy learning.

“The question is what does he become when they have a full receiving corps and a running game and he takes the next step reading defenses.”

Last year, Casserly asked a bunch of Southeastern Conference coaches whether Joe Burrow (who went first in the draft to Cincinnati) or Tagovailoa was the better prospect and “it was dead even. One guy said those are the two best college quarterbacks they’ve seen in 10 years.”

But when he asked college coaches nationally the same question, Burrow got “by far more votes,” Casserly said.

▪ Former Denver Broncos general manager Ted Sundquist said he believes Tagovailoa can get a team to the playoffs but the unknown is “how far can he carry them once there. He’s a winner. That’s what he has going for him. If you build around this guy in the proper manner, he will have a much better opportunity to thrive.

“Remember, Drew Brees hasn’t been the most athletic guy, but he was mature coming out. And Tua is a very mature young man. I think he’s going to be fine. He’s able to make the right throws.”

Sundquist watched the Broncos and Raiders games — when Tagovailoa was replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick in the second half — and “Tua didn’t sit on the bench and sulk. He was extremely engaged. He didn’t look like he was upset. Steve Young said he was a little concerned Tua wasn’t more upset and should show more outward anger, and I couldn’t disagree more.”

Sundquist believes sticking with Tagovailoa is the right approach “after two decades of being irrelevant, stuck at 7-9, 8-8.”

[Quick aside: The Denver-based Sundquist is the brainchild of Tampa-based SportsVTS, which uses mixed reality technology to prepare teenagers for high school football, high school football players for college football or college players for the NFL. It’s a unique concept that offers players an all-22 look when they walk to the line of scrimmage, and other neat mixed-reality technology elements. For more information, click here.]

▪ Mike Tannenbaum, the Dolphins’ former executive vice president/football operations: “Tua, like all rookie skill players, we have to give a grade of incomplete given there was no offseason, no preseason games, coupled with major hip surgery a year and a half ago. The only analysis would be a grade of incomplete. When you look at his first nine starts, he compares favorably to the first nine starts of the other AFC East quarterbacks as rookies.”

Check this out: Tagovailoa had a 63.9 completion percentage in his nine starts, with 1,805 passing yards, 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Buffalo’s Josh Allen, in his first nine career starts, had a 52.9 completion percentage, 1,559 passing yards, six touchdowns and nine interceptions.

The Jets’ Sam Darnold, in his first nine starts as an NFL player, was 55.0, 1,934 yards, with 11 TDs and 14 INTs. New England’s Cam Newton, during his first nine starts as a Carolina Panthers rookie, was 60.2, 2,605, 11 TDs and 10 INTs.

Tannenbaum added of Tagovailoa: “I think he can be a winning quarterback. You need to be patient. He needs a strong, stout offensive line much the way Drew Brees had in New Orleans. There’s enough [skill] with Tua. He has the accuracy, anticipation to be a winning quarterback.”

▪ Ex-general manager No. 4, who requested anonymity because he’s still involved in the league, said he believes Tagovailoa can be a functional starter but “I’m sort of pessimistic about him being a star. He’s a smaller guy that has to win with his feet and his throwing.

“I don’t see Kyler Murray explosion in running to compensate for his size. He’s no Drew Brees; the accuracy hasn’t carried over from Alabama. When I watched him this year, he was short with some of his throws and late on some of his reads. But we’ll see. You can’t discount what he showed at Alabama. I’d rather have Justin Herbert, but I told you that before the draft.” (Which he did.)

▪ ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky: “Eleven touchdown passes, five interceptions with a subpar offensive line, subpar skill group, subpar scheme.

“Don’t ask somebody to be what they’re not. He’s an executor. You know who else is? Drew Brees? Tua is not Russell Wilson when it comes to freestyling with the football.

“So build your football team like the Saints did. Tua’s game is accuracy, timing, anticipation, ball out and then the play-action pass. You know who else is? Drew Brees.

“You got the third pick; don’t fall in love with the receivers. Build the offensive line, allow him to use motion, own the line of scrimmage, dominate the play action pass, pick people apart with his brain and his arm. Tua will be a great player if you do it the right way, Miami.”

▪ Former NFL quarterback and No. 1 overall pick David Carr, now an NFL Network analyst: “Josh Allen and Tua aren’t the same type of players. Josh Allen has incredible physical abilities. He can do things most guys can’t do.

“Tua is going to have to utilize bootlegs, getting out to the perimeter. He gets the ball out quick. I honestly think Tua is farther along in his first year than Josh Allen was. You’ve got your guy.”

Carr noted how former 49ers coach and NFL Network colleague Steve Mariucci compared Tagovailoa to Hall of Famer Steve Young — also a left-handed quarterback — earlier this season. And Carr said he believes Miami can get Tagovailoa to produce Young-type production if he’s used correctly.

“You can utilize the same type of offense and get the same type of production, honestly, and you can have this quarterback for two decades slinging the rock in Miami,” Carr said.

Here’s part 1 of the series with a look at how Tagovailoa played this season.

Here’s part 2 of the series with a look at how Tagovailoa played compared with 25 other 21st century quarterbacks in their rookie seasons.

Here’s my Thursday piece with details on the six offensive coordinator candidates contacted by the Dolphins.

Here’s my Thursday Marlins 6-pack, including a significant looming acquisition.