NFL futures, odds: Buffalo Bills enter as Super Bowl favorites

·9 min read

Fans of the Buffalo Bills are still not over the coin flip that didn't go their way in last season's playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs. If Josh Allen had called "heads" instead of "tails," many believe the Bills might be entering this season as the defending Super Bowl champions. Unfortunately for Buffalo, the Chiefs won the toss, took the ball and never gave the Bills a chance.

However, things might be different in 2022. Buffalo enters the season with extremely lofty expectations. They are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl and are expected to be the cream of the crop across the NFL. They have preseason MVP favorite Josh Allen leading the way. Yahoo's Frank Schwab has Buffalo ranked No. 1 in his preseason power rankings. The betting market certainly doesn't disagree with that assessment.

Buffalo enters with lofty expectations

After winning 11 games in 2021, the expectations for Buffalo are even higher. Oddsmakers have set the over/under for Bills win this upcoming season at 11.5. This is tied for the highest win total in the league, alongside the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The win total is not deterring bettors either, as 80% of bets and 88% of the money is backing Buffalo to go over 11.5 wins.

The Bills are -550 favorites to make the playoffs this upcoming season, odds that suggest Buffalo makes the postseason nearly 85% of the time. Only the Buccaneers have better odds to make the playoffs. After missing the playoffs in 17 straight seasons from 2000-16, the Bills have made the playoffs four of the last five years and in three straight seasons.

Buffalo enters as a massive favorite to win the AFC East. The Bills are -225 favorites to finish atop their division. Across the NFL, only the Buccaneers are bigger favorites to win their division. Over 62% of the money bet has backed Buffalo to win the AFC East. The Bills are -10000 favorites to finish top two in the division, meaning you'd need to bet $100 to win a dollar.

The Bills are the betting favorites to have the most wins in the NFL this upcoming season at +500. Tampa Bay has the second-best odds at +550. Buffalo is also the betting favorite to lead the league in points scored this upcoming season with +600 odds. Tampa Bay, Kansas City and the Chargers have the second-best odds at +800.

Buffalo is +300 to win all six of their division games against the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets. They went 5-1 last season, with the only loss coming in ridiculous weather conditions against the Patriots. The Bills are +375 to win all of their home games this season and +400 to open the season 4-0, though they face some stiff competition in the Rams, Ravens, Titans and Dolphins. If you're really feeling a special season from the Bills, you can bet on a team going 17-0 in the regular season at 14-to-1 odds. A perfect season pays out at 40-to-1.

Bills are Super Bowl favorites

The Buffalo Bills enter the 2022 season as the Super Bowl favorites with +600 odds to win it all. The next-best odds belong to the Buccaneers, who are +750. No other team has odds better than 10-to-1.

The Bills are the most popular Super Bowl bet at BetMGM. They've received 18% of the money wagered. No other team has received more than 10.4% of the money. The Bills opened with +750 odds to win the Super Bowl, but those odds have moved as the offseason has progressed and the money has piled up on Buffalo.

The Bills are +300 to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are a distant second on the odds leaderboard at +500. The Bills are the most popular bet to win the AFC with the Broncos a distant second. Buffalo is +275 to have a first-round bye and finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That makes the Bills huge favorites ahead of the Chiefs, who have the second-best odds at +600.

Bills player props and awards

With expectations so high for the Bills, it's no surprise that oddsmakers are expecting big years from some of their players.

Josh Allen

Allen enters with +700 odds to win NFL MVP in 2022. That makes him the betting favorite, ahead of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, who both have +800 odds. Allen is currently the second-most popular MVP bet, getting over 15% of the betting action, which trails only Russell Wilson. An Allen MVP and Bills Super Bowl pays out at 35-to-1.

Allen is also the second-most popular bet to win AP Offensive Player of the Year behind Justin Jefferson. Allen has 25-to-1 odds to win the award, as it seems the award has shifted toward awarding non-quarterbacks. A non-quarterback has won the award three straight seasons, but a quarterback has won the award seven times in the last 15 years, so it's certainly possible.

Allen is 12-to-1 to lead the NFL in passing yards, which is tied for the seventh-best odds with Dak Prescott. He's +750 to lead the league in passing touchdowns, tied with Matthew Stafford for the third-best odds behind only Tom Brady and Justin Herbert. Allen finished eighth and seventh in the two categories last season. Allen is 25-to-1 to lead the league in interceptions, which are intriguing odds for someone who threw the third-most picks last season.

Allen's over/under for passing yards this upcoming season is set at 4349.5. He had 4,407 last season and has gone over this number in back-to-back years. His passing touchdown prop is set at 35.5, a number he has gone over in two straight seasons. His interception number is lined at 11.5 picks. He had 15 last season and has 46 over four seasons.

On the ground, Allen's over/under for rushing yards is set at 524.5. He had 763 last season but went under this number the two years before that. His over/under for rushing touchdowns is set at 6.5. He had just six last year, but went over this number his first three seasons.

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 05: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws to fans during practice on August 05, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images)
Josh Allen is the favorite to win MVP, and his Bills are favorites to win the Super Bowl. (Joshua Bessex/Getty Images)

Stefon Diggs

Diggs enters the season with 14-to-1 odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Those are the sixth-best odds behind only Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase and Davante Adams. He finished eighth last season, but led the league in 2020. Diggs is +900 to lead the league in receptions, odds which are third best in football. He was ninth last year, but again, led the league in 2020. Diggs is 14-to-1 to lead the league in receiving touchdowns after finishing sixth last year.

After posting 103 receptions, 1,225 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns last season, Diggs' props for the upcoming season are set at 99.5 receptions, 1199.5 receiving yards and 8.5 receiving touchdowns. His per season averages over two seasons in Buffalo are 115 receptions, 1,380 receiving yards and nine touchdowns.

Von Miller

Miller was once one of the most feared defensive players in the league, and while his best years might be behind him, he's still an impact player. Miller is 40-to-1 to win Defensive Player of the Year, which is tied for the 12th-best odds with Derwin James, Jalen Ramsey and Danielle Hunter. Miller is 25-to-1 to lead the league in sacks. Those are the 14th-best odds, tied with four others, including Haason Reddick. He finished tied for 11th last season with 9.5 sacks. His over/under for this upcoming season is set at 10 sacks. He's gone under this number in back-to-back seasons, but went over in his first seven healthy seasons.

Other Bills players

  • Gabriel Davis is expected to have an increased role with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley out of the picture. After posting 35 receptions, 549 receiving yards and six touchdowns last season, his season-long props are set at 60.5 receptions, 799.5 receiving yards and 7.5 touchdowns. He's 25-to-1 to lead the league in receiving touchdowns, which are better odds than marquee names like A.J. Brown and Keenan Allen.

  • Dawson Knox's season-long props are set at 51.5 receptions, 550.5 receiving yards and 6.5 receiving touchdowns. Last season, he had 49 receptions, 587 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. It'll be interesting to see if his red-zone prowess translates to the rest of the field with an increased role.

  • Devin Singletary is 30-to-1 to lead the NFL in rushing yards, which ties him for the 13th-best odds with the likes of Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette. His over/under for rushing yards is set at 749.5 after he posted 870 last season. His rushing touchdowns number is set at 5.5. He scored seven rushing touchdowns last season but had only four total over his first two seasons.

  • James Cook is 16-to-1 to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Those odds are tied for ninth best with Garrett Wilson, Kenneth Walker and Jalen Tolbert. If Cook steals the backfield from Singletary, he could be an intriguing bet.

  • Kaiir Elam is 20-to-1 to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. Those are the ninth-best odds, tied with five other defensive rookies.

  • Sean McDermott is 25-to-1 to win NFL Coach of the Year. Those odds are tied for 14th best, but McDermott is currently the third-most popular bet to win the award at BetMGM behind only Dan Campbell and Nathaniel Hackett.

Bills open season with stiff test

The Buffalo Bills open the season by visiting Los Angeles to face the defending Super Bowl champions. This is the first game of the season and kicks things off on Thursday, Sept. 8.

Despite being on the road and facing the defending champions, the Bills are 2-point favorites over the Rams. That highlights just how high the betting market is on this Buffalo team. If you don't want to fool around with the points, the Bills are -130 favorites to win the game on the moneyline.

The total for the game is set at 51.5 points. This is the second-highest total on the board, behind only the Kansas City-Arizona matchup. Fireworks are expected between two of the league's best teams.