NFL odds, betting: How to play Steelers-Colts 'Monday Night Football' matchup

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As we move toward the NFL season's final six weeks, motivation becomes more of a factor. The race to secure a playoff spot starts to heat up, while the weaker teams drop out and begin to make decisions with their futures in mind. Unfortunately, throughout the next few weeks, we will see more and more teams fall into the latter as their chances start to slip away. That's where it becomes crucial for bettors to get a pulse of the team and the coach's ability to keep the team focused on finishing the season with a strong effort.

"Monday Night Football" features the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) taking on the Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1). While both coaches are trying to navigate through disappointing seasons, each team still has plenty of motivation. Despite being only two losses behind the Titans, the Colts' season still feels more like an audition for coach Jeff Saturday and his players. This is only Saturday's third game as an NFL head coach. That's 249 less than the Steelers' Mike Tomlin, who is trying to avoid his first losing season in his 16-year career. However, with a 3-7 record, Tomlin can only afford one more loss to keep his record-breaking streak alive.

We should get strong efforts out of both teams, which are in dire need of a win to keep their seasons meaningful. The Colts are 2.5-point favorites after back-to-back impressive showings against the Raiders and Eagles. It will be their first time playing under Saturday as a favorite, a spot where Indianapolis is only 1-4 ATS on the year. Are the Steelers a live dog under Tomlin, or will the Colts continue to rally around their new coach?

PITTSBURGH, PA - NOVEMBER 20: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) looks on from under center during the national football league game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers on November 20, 2022 at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts' offense, or lack thereof, has been the driving force behind the team's struggles this season. The Colts are 31st in points scored, ahead of only the Broncos, and have failed to reach 17 points in four of their last five games. They scored 25 points in Jeff Saturday's debut against Las Vegas, but it's important to note that the Raiders have one of the league's worst defenses. The following week against Philadelphia, Matt Ryan was sacked four times in a 17-16 loss. The Colts' offense experienced the same challenges it faced under former coach Frank Reich. That's where this Pittsburgh defense will cause problems for the Colts.

Protecting Ryan has been an issue all season. Indianapolis' offensive line has allowed 40 sacks, tied for the most in the league with Chicago. Without protection, Ryan is limited in attacking Pittsburgh's biggest defensive weakness: the secondary. The Steelers currently rank outside the top 20 in EPA per dropback and were carved up by Joe Burrow for 355 yards last week. My concern for the Colts' offense is that Ryan doesn't have the mobility to make plays off-script and will turn the ball over when he tries. Relying solely on Jonathan Taylor isn't going to work against a solid Steelers run defense.

The Steelers' offense has had many problems this year, but there have been recent improvement in some key areas. RB Najee Harris has consecutive games of 90-plus yards, and Kenny Pickett is coming off his best game of the season against Cincinnati. After throwing seven interceptions in his first four starts, he only has one in his past three. The Colts' defense presents a tough challenge for the rookie, but Pickett has the more prominent playmakers, like George Pickens, at his disposal.

With a total below 40, we are likely looking at only one team reaching 20 points. Both teams will look to grind out yards on the ground on early downs, hoping to keep their quarterbacks out of third-and-long situations. This game will come down to making big plays in the passing game and, more importantly, protecting the football. It feels odd, but I am more comfortable with the rookie quarterback getting it done than the veteran. I have seen Ryan at his worst under pressure this year, and I think the Steelers' defense forces him into some big turnovers that decide the game. The Colts are vulnerable favorites that I am happy to fade after they played over their heads against the Eagles. Bet the Steelers +2.5 with a smaller stake on the moneyline at +120.

Stats provided by Teamrankings, rbsdm (based on WP 90-10), Football Outsiders.