NFL Week 1 picks: Dolphins at Chargers, Bills at Aaron Rodgers’ Jets, 3 big upsets and all the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 1 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

DOLPHINS (0-0) at CHARGERS (0-0)

Line: LAC by 3.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 31-27.

TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.

Upset! Well, I had Miami No. 4 in my 2023 NFL team rankings and LAC 11th, so it’s time to put my theoretical money where my mouth is. I believe the Dolphins are clearly better overall defensively than the Chargers. I also believe (here it comes) that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa is better than Justin Herbert — with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle having a ton to do with that. The two young QBs are forever linked, with Tagovailoa picked fifth overall and Herbert sixth in the 2020 draft. They are 1-1 head to head. And both have something to prove: Tagovailoa that he can stay healthy and concussion-free, and Herbert that his 13-TD decline from the year before wasn’t a bad sign. Herbert’s name also is on L.A.’s blown 27-0 lead in a playoff loss to Jacksonville last year. The result will be telling for both teams, because Week 1 matters. Since the 32-team era began in 2002, teams 1-0 are more than twice as likely to make the playoffs as teams starting 0-1, by 52.7 percent to 24.7. The 57 Super Bowl winners were 46-10-1 on opening day. Miami is 12-5 in its past 17 games vs. the Chargers (and 11-6 against the spread). There also is a lane for a big game from Fins RB Raheem Mostert on Sunday, as the Bolts were bottom five in run defense last season and figure to be preoccupied with stopping Hill and Waddle. My No. 4 ranking for Miami was higher than most anywhere else. Sunday will make me look smart, or leave me stranded all alone for now on Homer Island.

GAME OF THE WEEK

BILLS (0-0) at JETS (0-0)

Line: BUF by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 27-24.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.

Bills at Jets alone would be enough to have hearts palpitating among the Monday night crew. But now you add Aaron Rodgers in Jet green in his post-Packers debut? And living miracle Damar Hamlin back with the Bills? OMG! New Jets RB Dalvin Cook can barely get on the doggone marquee. To the game now, one of eight division contests in Week 1: Teams split last season and both games were low scoring. Both defenses are strong, but Buffalo’s, already missing top pass rusher Von Miller, might now also be without safety Micah Hyde due to an ailing back. Still, Josh Allen has the Buffs a title contender going in, while NYJ has missed the playoffs 12 straight years and is 11-23 the past two seasons under Robert Saleh. Can Rodgers, about to turn 40, turn all of that around right away? Let’s see that show on the field before we start anointing the Jets as catapulting from 7-10 to Super Bowl-bound.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

TITANS (0-0) at SAINTS (0-0)

Line: NO by 3.

Cote’s pick: TEN, 23-18.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” trills the Upset Bird in flight, crimson scarf in stark relief against his noir iridescence. ”Tennessaaawwwk!” Titans have won six of past eight over N’Awlins, and the one matchup I like more than any other here is Derrick Henry vs. what was a really bad Saints run defense last year. And if they stack it to limit Henry, Ryan Tannehill has an elite target again with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Cajuns are missing RB Alvin Kamara to a suspension, but new QB Derek Carr has a nice targets in Chris Olave and a finally healthy (for now) Michael Thomas. So the over/under of 41 feels quite low. “Hopkins could be just the ticket to buoy Tannehill’s flagging career,” notes U-Bird. “Tannehaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 1:

Thursday night: @Chiefs (0-0, -4 1/2) over Lions (0-0), 34-24: Find that full prediction capsule separately here.

@Falcons (0-0, -3 1/2) over Panthers (0-0), 20-17: An otherwise bland dish adds wild spice with the debuts of rookie of the year favorites Bryce Young, Carolina’s overall No. 1 pick QB, and Bijan Robinson, Atlanta’s fantasy darling first-round RB. Young getting comfortable might take longer, though he’s in good hands with new coach Frank Reich. Let’s ride that half point to a Cats cover in a points-shy opener.

Bengals (0-0, -2) over @Browns (0-0), 23-20: Joe Burrow is back healthy from a calf issue, and Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd await his aerials. That’s a lot for Deshaun Watson to outscore as he hits the reset button for a fresh start. Home field gives Browns a fair upset shot if Nick Chubb can chew enough clock to keep Burrow buried on sideline, but there’s a reason Cincy is on an 8-2 tear in this rivalry.

Jaguars (0-0, -5) over @Colts (0-0), 31-16: Jax’s Trevor Lawrence is poised to elevate to the exclusive axis of elite QBs. Indy is starting raw rookie Anthony Richardson, whose accuracy issues forebode a rough career launch for the ex-Gator. This matchup alone is a huge edge for Jags, and Colts missing unhappy RB Jonathan Taylor adds to the disparity.

@Vikings (0-0, -5 1/2) over Buccaneers (0-0), 27-17: Tampa’s starting QB has gone from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. That’s like your college literary professor going from Shakespeare to me. Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson will be plenty here as Vikes try to force to Mayfield throw behind Bucs’ ragamuffin offensive line.

49ers (0-0, -2 1/2) over @Steelers (0-0), 23-16: As Brock Purdy and Kenny Pickett endeavor to further prove themselves in their second seasons, defense is this game’s unmistakable calling card. Niners stud Nick Bosa is the newly minted richest defender ever with a five-year, $170 million extension, while Pitt’s T.J. Watt is a similar force. Bosa, though, fronts the NFL’s best defensive unit overall.

@Commanders (0-0, -7) over Cardinals (0-0), 24-6: New Washington QB Sam Howell might need time to settle in after playing little as a rookie, but this is the game for coach Ron Rivera to put on a show for the club’s new ownership. Because Arizona stinks. I mean, like Limburger cheese left on the front porch to rot. With Kyler Murray out injured for a good while, Cards releasing Colt McCoy and starting Joshua Dobbs was a strong indication of full-on tank mode.

@Ravens (0-0, -10) over Texans (0-0), 34-16: A sacks-strong defense, a tough place to play and a savvy coach in John Harbaugh combine to suggest a very rough debut for Houston’s rookie QB C.J. Stroud and the hobbled O-line that will fail valiantly to protect him. TE Mark Andrews is iffy, but Lamar Jackson has plenty else to dominated the Texans’ D.

Packers (0-0, +1) over @Bears (0-0), 23-20: Upset! Sort of. Gee Bees have won eight in a row against the Bears and covered every one, and Chitown ended last season on an 0-10 skid, but the betting line obsesses over no Aaron Rodgers. I don’t. I see Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon dominating on the ground against Chitown’s bad run-D to take the onus off Jordan Love.

@Broncos (0-0, -3 1/2) over Raiders (0-0), 24-20: Raiders have won six in a row in this rivalry, but I believe three things: 1). Denver paid big for, and got, a really good, difference-making coach in Sean Payton; 2). Russell Wilson will enjoy the vindication of a bounceback season; and 3). Vegas’ major problems on defense have not gone away, and Jimmy Garoppolo is not a win-you-a-shootout kind of passer

Eagles (0-0, -4) over @Patriots (0-0), 24-17: Will Bill Belichick ever relocate his lost mojo? (The one Brady took with him?) NFC champ Birds won’t match last year’s 14-3 record but are still the team to beat over there, and adding RB D’Andre Swift makes a potent offense even better. Belichick still has the defense to keep Pats in games, but QB Mac Jones has a lot to prove and not a ton of special offensive talent to help him.

@Seahawks (0-0, -5 1/2) over Rams (0-0), 23-16: The 5-12 Rams were the worst reigning Super Bowl champ ever and that included being swept by Seattle last year. Now top weapon Cooper Kupp (hamstring) won’t play Sunday. But are the Seahawks all that? Can Geno Smith duplicate his Cinderella ‘22? Like Seabirds at home, especially with Kupp out, but if Cam Akers can get it going vs. a so-so run D, Rams will have a shot.

Cowboys (0-0, -3 1/2) over @Giants (0-0), 30-20: Big out the gate for the Sunday night crew, with a division rivalry, America’s Team and the New York market all in play. I wouldn’t overthink this. Dallas on a 9-1 run has dominated this series., and Daniel Jones is 1-5 vs. Boys and played badly in two losses last year. Dallas has a top-five defense led by Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs and will show it under the lights.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

The Soviet Union collapsed, the Gulf War began and you couldn’t turn on a radio without hearing Michael Jackson singing, “Black Or White.” It was 1991 when we began our NFL picks in the Miami Herald. Thirty-three seasons later, we’re back and determined to bounce back from an uncharacteristically rough 2022 -- although we did rally in the postseason, going 10-3 overall and 9-4 against the spread including a bull’s-eye on the Chiefs’ Super Bowl upset of the Eagles. Still, in the regular season, the Evil Betting Line had its way. Now it shall feel our wrath! Welcome back to longtime readers and welcome aboard to newbies. We like to have fun here but take our picks seriously, so let’s get this thing going! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Chiefs (-4 1/2) over Lions, 34-24. Find that separate full prediction capsule here.]

Final 2022: 162-107-2, .602 overall; 121-143-7, .459 vs. spread.

Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.

Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.