Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)
Baltimore is two games clear of the rest of the AFC North and has an MVP candidate emerging at quarterback in Lamar Jackson. After handing New England its first loss, the Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) went to Cincinnati as 10.5-point faves and rumbled to a 49-13 victory Sunday.
Houston is atop a clogged AFC South, with all four teams within two games of each other. The Texans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) had a bye in Week 10, after breezing by Jacksonville 26-3 catching 1 point on the road in Week 9.
“We opened Ravens -4.5 and moved down to -4,” Murray said. “The Texans have been great in this position as a road underdog and are coming off their bye week. This is the best game of the morning slate by far.”
New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
New England had a well-timed bye this past week, following its first loss of the season, which actually ended a 13-0 SU (10-3 ATS) dating to last December. The Patriots (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) tumbled to Baltimore 37-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 9.
Philadelphia is just a tick above .500 following its bye week, but is certainly in contention in the middling NFC East. The Eagles (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) topped Chicago 22-14 as a 5-point home favorite in Week 9.
Aside from a preseason meeting last year, this is the first time these two have met since the Eagles beat the Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl 52. Murray fully expects an overload of Patriots action.
“We opened it Patriots -3.5,” Murray said. “Interesting game with both teams coming off their byes. The Patriots were exposed in a lot of ways by Baltimore. Books will need the Eagles huge.”
There were no line moves Sunday night, but the Patriots twice went to -3 (even), then back to -3 flat.
Kansas City was thought to be the best shot to dethrone New England atop the AFC, but at 6-4 SU (5-5 ATS) faces a key Monday night showdown in Tinseltown. The Chiefs let a 29-20 fourth-quarter lead slip away in a wild finish at Tennessee, losing 35-32 as 5-point favorites Sunday.
Los Angeles hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations, but a win in this prime-time contest would put it right back in contention in the AFC West. In the Week 10 Thursday nighter, the Chargers (4-6 SU, 3-5-2 ATS) gave up a late touchdown at Oakland to lose 26-24 laying 1 point.
“The Chargers got a little banged up on Thursday in Oakland,” Murray said. “The public will be all over the Chiefs, who will likely need to win to stay in first place, assuming the Raiders beat the Bengals on Sunday. The Chargers may as well play a home game out of the country. They don’t have any fans at their games in L.A. anyway.”
The line settled at Chiefs -4 late Sunday evening.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)
San Francisco (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) still has Week 10 work to do, facing a tough Monday night task at home against Seattle. But the 49ers have very recent tape to work with for Week 11, having played at Arizona in the Week 9 Thursday nighter. In that contest, the Niners got out to a 21-7 lead, then held on for a 28-25 victory giving 10.5 points.
Arizona is much more competitive than expected under rookie head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie QB Kyler Murray. The Cardinals (3-6-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) have played in seven one-score games, including Sunday’s 30-27 loss at Tampa Bay getting 5.5 points. Arizona is tied with Green Bay for the NFL’s best ATS mark.
“The Cardinals have been great ATS this season, especially as road ‘dogs,” Murray said. “These two teams just played, and the Cardinals moved the ball pretty well. We may see sharps on Arizona and squares on San Francisco here.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.