NFL Week 11 picks: Tua’s surging Dolphins at Denver, Rams-Bucs, 3 big upsets and the rest | Opinion

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

DOLPHINS (6-3) at BRONCOS (3-6)

Line: MIA by 3.

Cote’s pick: MIA 27-13.

TV: 4:05 p.m.,CBS.

Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0 as a starter with five touchdown passes and zero interceptions — only the second rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era (Carson Wentz, 2016) to start 3-0 with zero picks. If Tagovailoa bags a fourth consecutive victory Sunday to begin his career he will be only the second rook since 1976 to do that, and the first since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Heady stuff, the way the Golden Samoan has introduced himself to Miami. He has helped make the Fins one of 15 teams with six-plus wins, the most ever entering Week 11. He also is a win in Denver from hoisting Miami into a tie for the AFC East lead with Buffalo. This might give us pause: Miami somehow has lost 10 consecutive road games vs. teams with losing records. Except: Denver has lost eight of the past nine at home vs. teams with winning records. Mile High is no longer a scary visit. The Broncos are in shambles. QB Drew Lock (ribs) is iffy to play and has 10 interceptions in past five games when he does play. The once-proud Denver defense has allowed an average of 36 points during the past four games. The Broncos’ decline and the way Miami is playing are a stark contrast. Can’t recall when last I said what I’m about to: Miami losing on the road Sunday would be a huge surprise.

GAME OF THE WEEK

RAMS (6-3) at BUCCANEERS (7-3)

Line: TB by 4.

Cote’s pick: TB 23-20.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.

The Monday night stage and ESPN’s talking heads get just what they want here: Tom Brady. Long touchdown pass. Screaming on the sideline. Triumph or meltdown. Doesn’t matter. Brady is money ratings. Bonus: Two good teams, two great defenses and one intriguing game. This is one of five Week 11 matchups of teams with at least six wins, the most ever in one week this deep into a season. Tampa is 3-1 at home, and the Rams are only 2-3 on the road. That and Brady piloting the clearly better offense steer the pick, although we will hedge with LAR to cover Also lean to the under. A year ago, Bucs beat Rams 55-40. This time, see a D-driven night.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

LIONS (4-5) at PANTHERS (3-7)

Line: CAR by 3.

Cote’s pick: DET 30-27.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “Detroiaawwk!” This game stayed off the bet board at some sportsbooks because of the quarterback situation: Matthew Stafford (thumb) and Teddy Bridgewater (knee) both questionable deep into the week. With two comparably mediocre teams I get Panthers being given the minimal three-point home-field edge, except that Carolina has lost eight of its past nine home games, the actual home advantage is diminished in pandemic 2020, and RB Christian McCaffrey is expected out again. Motown, please. By which I mean, Motown, please? “Yes, picking the Lions to win always feels like a tightrope walk,” notes U-Bird. “Tightrope waaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 11:

@Browns (6-3, -3 1/2) over Eagles (3-5-1), 19-13: A long-standing policy of mine — Never Trust the Browns — is being tested this year. The gamble on making this pick Thursday as I must: Will Browns DE Myles Garrett play? The NFL sacks leader has missed practices and is iffy with a (non-COVID) illness. If he’s good to go (gambling he will be), the pressure on a regressing Wentz (12 Picks)will shape the outcome. No Garrett would greatly increase Birds’ uspet shot. Either way, more dreary weather = ‘under.’

@Saints (7-2, -5) over Falcons (3-6), 31-23: This game got very interesting because A) Falcons are 3-1 with improved defense since the coaching change and B) Jameis Winston is pitching for injured Drew Brees. But N’Awlins was 5-0 without Brees last season,, so there’s plenty around him to insulate Winston. Jinx Alert!: Saints defense has gone 52 games in a row not allowing an opponent a 100-yard rusher, longest streak since the 1970 merger. ATL-to-cover really tempts, but the Fleur-de-lis, even Brees-less, are really good.

@Washington (2-7, -1) over Bengals (2-6-1), 27-16: These free-falling teams have lost 11 of past 13 games between them, but a couple of matchups heavily favor the No Names in this near pick-’em game. Washington will control the ground on Gals’ bad run D, and the home team’s defensive front will dominate Cincy’s awful O-line and bother rookie Joe Burrow all day.

Steelers (9-0, -10) over @Jaguars (1-8), 31-6: Mike Tomlin spent the week lavishing over-the-top praise on Jacksonville, so you know it’s going to be a rout. Jags did play Green Bay tough last week in a four-point loss, but this one won’t be close. Pittsburgh’s elite defense will cause large problems for rookie QB Jake Luton, and Big Ben and all those weapons will dominate Jax’s bad defense.

@Ravens (6-3, -6) over Titans (6-3), 27-17: If you believe in intangibles such as motivation, oh are the Ravens your team here! Tennessee played last Thursday and Baltimore on Sunday night, so Titans have edge in rest/prep time. And both teams have stumbled lately. No matter. Two big ground games here but only one top defense. Coming off upset loss to Patriots, BAL will be super-stoked to avenge last season’s home playoff elimination by the Titans.

@Texans (2-7, +1) over Patriots (4-5), 26-23: I am resolute (a.k.a. stubborn) that Deshaun Watson and Houston are better than their record. Apparently I’m not alone because Patriots, showing life off a big upset of Baltimore, and on an 8-1 run in this series, should be a bigger favorite -- and were, at 2 1/2, before money on Texans bet it down to 1. Call this one a gut/hunch pick. Upset!

@Chargers (2-7, -9 1/2) over Jets (0-9), 24-17: Jets are coming off a bye, but NYJ has lost five in a row after a week off ... and you think winless Adam Gase will end that trend!? Bolts DE Joey Bosa returns from a concussion to enhance LAC’s advantage. Still, point spread is way big. Chargers major in close games, and Planes nearly beating Pats before the bye suggests the cadaver may have a pulse.

Packers (7-2, +1) over @Colts (6-3), 27-23: Duel of division leaders was another Game of the Week contender. I get this bet-line being all but even as Aaron Rodgers confronts an elite Indy pass defense and a strong D overall. And Colts’ strong offensive line has been a fountain of youth for Philip Rivers. But Gee Bees are 4-1 on road and I see Mr. Rodgers finding a way to solve Nags’ D just enough. Upset!

@Vikings (4-5, -7) over Cowboys (2-7), 24-20: Minnesota played last Sunday night and Dallas is coming off a bye and has QB Andy Dalton back. So the idea of an upset is not preposterous, and the notion of at least a Boys cover tempts like your favorite dessert. Vikes have won three in a row and super hot Dalvin Cook has a good matchup in Dallas’ weak run D. A rout would hardly surprise; still, Cowboys played unbeaten Pittsburgh tough last week and I’d fancy them plus-7 to keep this one close, too.

Chiefs (8-1, -7 1/2) over @Raiders (6-3), 41-23: Our Game of the Week runner-up is a division rivalry tinged with bitterness and elements of revenge -- perfect for Sunday prime time. After Las Vegas upset Kansas City 40-32 in Week 5, the Raiders team buses took a victory lap around Arrowhead Stadium in a showy gesture that angered KC coach Andy Reid, who made it a rallying cry to his team this week. Vegas’ defense has been good the past few games but highly motivated Chiefs and maximum Patrick Mahomes is a different story.

[Point spreads used are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook by Williams Hill as of Thursday afternoon].

Byes:

Bears (5-5) — Chitown has lost four straight games and gone seven in row scoring 23 points or fewer. Team says Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky may start after bye if both QBs are healthy. Up next: @Packers.

Bills (7-3) — Buffs had won three straight games before losing to Cardinals last week on last-second Hail Mary -- now Bills are only a half-game ahead of surging Dolphins in AFC East. On deck: Vs. Chargers.

49ers (4-6) — Niners have dropped three straight and may be out of playoff contention by time QB Jimmy Garoppolo returns from injury, which seems at least two weeks away. Next game: @Rams.

Giants (3-7) — NYG has won two in a row after beating Eagles last week, and, astonishingly, the Biggies are still in contention for division title in the awful NFC East. On deck: @Bengals.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Pleased to report our Week 10 results showed a strong 10-4 overall and a really strong 11-3 against the point spread -- best of the season thus far ATS. Called the Colts’ mini-upset win at Tennessee, nailed Washington covering at Detroit in our Upset of the Week (that’s a semi-”Aawwk!”) — and also had another couple of ‘dogs-with-points in covers by Texans and Giants. Needed that big week against the Evil Point Spread for some breathing room over .500. Glad you’re with us on our 30th season of picks in the Herald. Now let’s keep it going! [Note: Thursday night pick was @Seahawks (6-3, -3) over Cardinals (6-3), 34-30. Find that full preview and pick HERE].

Week 10: 10-4, .714 overall; 11-3, .786 vs. spread.

Season: 93-53-1, .637 overall; 77-68-2, .531 vs. spread.

Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.

Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.