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NFL Week 12 betting roundup: Aaron Rodgers, Packers as underdogs at Lambeau is rare occurrence

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  • Aaron Rodgers
    Aaron Rodgers
    American football quarterback

It’s not very often that Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are underdogs at home.

However, that was the case on Sunday when the Packers were two-point underdogs at BetMGM against the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field. According to the Odds Shark database, the game marked just the 14th time that the Packers were home underdogs since Rodgers became the team’s starting quarterback back in 2008.

In the previous 13 instances, the Packers were just 4-8-1 straight up and 5-7-1 against the spread. Seven of those games were played without Rodgers, either due to rest or injury.

Rodgers was out there on Sunday, and he made his presence felt. He threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns and also added a rushing touchdown in the Packers’ 36-28 victory. The Packers are now 5-0 against the spread at home and 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. The Packers have been one of the most consistent ATS home teams in the NFL for years. In their last 30 home games, the Packers are 25-5 straight up and 20-10 against the spread

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) runs to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2021, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) runs to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2021, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

The Rams have not been as kind to bettors this season. Entering Sunday, the Rams had lost back-to-back games but were still favored coming off a bye week. With Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller in the fold, it felt like the bye week would help all of those new parts jell.

Instead, it resulted in the team’s third straight loss. The Rams are now 7-4 overall and just 4-7 against the spread. That’s tied with four other teams for the third-worst ATS mark in the NFL. Only the Washington Football Team (3-7 ATS) and New York Jets (3-8 ATS) have been worse against the number.

The Rams have been particularly bad on the road, covering just twice in six tries. The Packers, meanwhile, are an NFL-best 10-2 against the spread this season.

Another winning week for sportsbooks

Remember that three-week stretch where the public was crushing the books? Well, the house has bounced back in a big way over the last month and Week 12 brought another winning week.

It wasn’t quite as lopsided as recent weeks, but Jeff Stoneback, the Director of Trading for BetMGM, told Yahoo Sports that the house had another winning weekend.

“The house overall was just a small winner, so bettors got a little bit of their money back,” Stoneback said.

The Packers winning as underdogs was one of the big winners for the house, Stoneback said. The "Sunday Night Football" game always attracts a lot of bets, and this weekend was no different. The Baltimore Ravens beat the Cleveland Browns 16-10 as three-point favorites and that was a big win for the book.

The other big wins for the book were, unsurprisingly, underdogs winning outright. They included the Miami Dolphins beating the Carolina Panthers 33-10 as 1.5-point underdogs and the Denver Broncos beating the Los Angeles Chargers 28-13 as three-point underdogs.

On the whole, it has been a strong season for underdogs. Entering "Monday Night Football," underdogs are 7-7 against the spread in Week 12 with six outright winners. In addition to the aforementioned Packers, Chargers and Dolphins, the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants and New York Jets all won as underdogs.

Jets were rare public side

Some of the usual favorites of the public came through on Sunday.

The New England Patriots covered as 7.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers covered as three-point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts.

The opponent of the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars usually get their fair share of public action, and on Sunday it was the Atlanta Falcons as 1.5-point favorites. As of Sunday morning, the Falcons had received 77% of the bets and 56% of the money at BetMGM. They won 21-14.

The other winner for the public was the Jets, Stoneback said.

The Jets were three-point underdogs on the road against the Houston Texans. The Jets were starting struggling rookie quarterback Zach Wilson yet still attracted 44% of the bets and 64% of the money at BetMGM.

After falling behind 14-3 in the first half, the Jets rallied and won 21-14 to snap a three-game losing streak.

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) looks to pass during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Nov. 28, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Matt Patterson)
New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) looks to pass during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Nov. 28, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Matt Patterson)
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