NFL Week 13: After a 14-2 week, our picks for Dolphins-Washington, 49ers-Eagles, upsets & the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 13 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

DOLPHINS (8-3) at COMMANDERS (4-8)

Line: MIA by 9 1/2.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 37-17.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

This should be a lousy game that Miami wins comfortably even with temps in the mid-40s, so I’m going to try to infuse a little drama and doubt. Few teams more than the Dolphins are better at home but show a more sizable drop-off on the road. At home Miami averages 38.8 points; on the road, it’s 24.2. At home the defense allows an average of 18.0 points; away, it’s 28.6. If I were coach Mike McDaniel worried my Fins might take Washington lightly, I’d also certainly mention that the 10-1 Eagles beat the Commanders twice -- but by only 34-31 and 38-31. So the Comms do have an upside ... they just don’t reach it very often. Now here’s Miami should win comfortably. Washington QB Sam Howell is pretty but Miami’s pass defense is better. Howell leads the NFL in passing yards ... but also interceptions. The Dolphins have the No. 2 scoring offense (Dallas eked ahead), while the Commanders are dead last in scoring defense and 30th in pass defense. Sunday should be fun as Christmas morning for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and that gang. In-season “Hard Knocks” Episode 3 could be a stage for Cheetah’s TD celebrations against Washington. Having had since Thanksgiving Day to prepare for Miami’s offense will be little help in actually stopping it. Fins have suffered slow starts on the road lately, with only one TD and 13 total points in the first quarter of the past away games. So a big opening quarter would be a welcome harbinger to the rout I expect.

GAME OF THE WEEK

49ERS (8-3) at EAGLES (10-1)

Line: SF by 3.

Cote’s pick: SF, 27-23.

TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.

Team with best record in NFL is a home dog!? “Hmm,” you may say. Rule of thumb: Any time a betting line looks strange at a glance ... give it a second, longer look. The sharps who set the numbers are rarely way off. And the fact Niners minus-3 hadn’t budged as of Thursday tells you money isn’t exactly pouring in Philly. This is a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game that the Eagles won in a 31-7 rout after 49ers QB Brock Purdy left injured early. San Fran has the redemption factor from that, plus a healthy Purdy firing on all cylinders with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, et al. Philly and Jalen Hurts can hang in a shootout -- and often must because the Birds’ scoring defense ranks a middling 20th in the league. By contrast the Niners possess the No. 1 defense and the best-balanced team in football. A turnover could decide who wins. Purdy has six picks in his last six games and Philly is minus-2 on turnovers, so one giveaway may be the difference. Would the 1-1 team winning at home be a surprise? Not at all. But the 49ers are favored with cause, and I’d not bet against ‘em.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

FALCONS (5-6) at JETS (4-7)

Line: ATL by 3.

Cote’s pick: NYJ, 19-16.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” caws the Upset Bird. “New Yaaawwwk!” Planes will deploy Tim Boyle to start at QB over Zach Wilson again despite Boyle’s ineffective showing in that Black Friday loss to Miami last week. But, the real question: How many times will the cameras show Aaron Rodgers on the NYJ sideline (over/under 6 1/2) and when will he play again now that he’s cleared to practice? Every game is must-win now for the Jets, because if you have no playoff hope, how on Earth do you justify playing a QB who turns 40 on Saturday and ruptured an Achilles tendon less than three months earlier? Winning to stay in the hunt helps, and the Jets’ defense will make it happen Sunday. “Happy birthday, Aaron!“ notes U-Bird, minding his manners. “Nobody comes back in three months from a ruptured Aawwkilles. It’s a miracle! Aaron Raaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 13:

Thursday night: @Cowboys (-9) over Seahawks, 34-13: Find this full prediction capsule separately here.

@Titans (4-7, +1) over Colts (6-5), 23-20: Upset! (Well, mini-upset.) Indy won the early season meeting 23-16 and has won 22 of past 26 trips to Nashville, yet I have a feeling Titans defense will rise up at home,. where all four Tennessee wins have come. Indy will be missing RB Jonathan Taylor to thumb surgery, and Titans have won outright seven of the past nine times they’ve been home dogs.

Chargers (4-7, -5 1/2) over @Patriots (2-9), 24-16: Confession: I looked intently as this game as my Upset of the Week pick. Law of averages, right? Bolts are erratic and poor Bill Belichick is so overdue a win. Then I came to my senses. If the Pats do win they will be able to hear my anguished screaming in Foxborough, but they’re 1-5 at home, so I think I’m good. Bailey Zappe is no better than Mac Jones, just less scared and not scarred yet.

Lions (8-3, -4 1/2) over @Saints (5-6), 27-23: Detroit was an upset loser to Packers on Thanksgiving Day so it has had extra time to prepare, and has followed all three of its losses this season with a win. Lions also have been better on the road (4-1) than Saints have been at home, where they’ve lost seven of past eight as dogs. N’Awlins also could be without top WR Chris Olave, who hadn’t cleared concussion protocols as of Thursday, though still lean Fleur-de-lis with the points.

@Steelers (7-4, -5 1/2) over Cardinals (2-10), 24-13: Arizona is unquestionably better since Kyler Murray’s return; unfortunately, he doesn’t play defense, where the Cardbirds really need the help. Zona is 0-6 on the road, Pitt in winter is a tough venue, and when you say “Arizona’s D” it might as well be a letter grade. Watch the improvement of Kenny Pickett and his offense continue.

@Texans (6-5, -3 1/2) over Broncos (6-5), 27-23: Big game in the lower-tier AFC playoff race. The Upset Bird was squawking on Denver’s behalf. I get it. Broncos have won five straight. But Broncos also have lost 15 of their past 19 road games, and C.J. Stroud-to-Tank Dell should stay hot vs. an overrated Denver defense that in fact is worst in the AFC in points allowed.

@Buccaneers (4-7, -5) over Panthers (1-10), 24-10: Carolina fired coach Frank Reich this week and ofttimes teams enjoy an immediate (if temporary) bump from the jolt of an in-season change — but Panthers are bad enough to be an exception. (Reich reportedly wanted to draft C,J. Stroud instead of Bryce Young, which began a rift with ownership made worse by rampant losing.) Bucs are somehow only one game out of first in the woeful AFC South despite losing six of past seven games, so the home team has big incentive.

@Rams (5-6, -3 1/2) over Browns (7-4), 23-17: [Fast fact: The home franchise began as the Cleveland Rams and played there in 1937-45. If you recall attending those games, congrats for still being alive!] Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is iffy (concussion) and newly signed Joe Flacco (!) may be extracted from mothballs to start. Cleveland also could be missing top defender Myles Garrett (shoulder).

Chiefs (8-3, -6) over @Packers (5-6), 24-20: Does the Sunday night stage have itself a good one? QB Jordan Love in a two-game Pack win streak has begun to look like a long-term answer, while Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs are not the offensive juggernaut of years past. Gee Bees also have had since Thanksgiving Day to prepare for K.C. Love likely will be missing RB Aaron Jones again and maybe backup A.J. Dillon, too, and Chiefs bring a strong pass defense, but still lean Pack to cover.

@Jaguars (8-3, -8) over Bengals (5-6), 21-17: Joe Burrow at Trevor Lawrence would have been something for the Monday night guys to hype, but Joe’s done for the year and it’s a steep drop to Jake Browning. Jaguars are on a 7-1 series roll vs. Cincy including eight wins in past 10 meetings in Jax. But all three Jags losses have come at home, and ‘Gals hope to finally have Tee Higgins back healthy, so bet-line may be a tad plump.

OFF THIS WEEK

Bears (4-8; next vs. Lions): Chicago won Monday night snoozer over Vikings, 12-10, but still resides in NFC North basement.

Bills (6-6; next @Chiefs): Loss at Philly and now K.C. next? Brutal schedule has Buffalo barely hanging on in playoff chase -- and now dealing with the arrest warrant and legal problems involving defensive star Von Miller.

Giants (4-8; next vs. Packers): NYG has worst points differential (minus-133) in NFL as it hosts Green Bay on a Monday night.

Raiders (5-7; next vs. Vikings): Mid-season coaching change won’t save Vegas barring a fast and dramatic revival.

Ravens (9-3; next vs. Rams): Baltimore is in charge in the AFC North and looking for an L.A. sweep next week after beating the Chargers last Sunday night.

Vikings (6-6; next @Raiders): Monday night’s 12-10 home loss to Bears verified QB Josh Dobbs is back to Earth with a thud.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday.]

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

We’d been waiting for a breakout like last week’s, and our season dearly needed it. The 14-2 mark overall was a season-best and to also go 14-2 against the spread was the stuff of dreams. That one week alone lifted us up over the Mendoza line of .600 outright for the season and into the promised land of over .500 vs. the betting line. The near-perfect week included a bull’s-eye on our Giants over Patriots Upset of the Week pick (“Aawwk!”), and three other dogs-with-points hits on covers by the Packers, Bills and Bears. Wish we could bottle last week and sell it. All we can do instead is take a photo of the Week 12 line below for posterity and vow to keep the hand hot. Let’s go! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Cowboys (-9) over Seahawks, 34-13. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 12: 14-2, .875 overall; 14-2, .875 vs. spread.

Season: 112-68, .622 overall; 89-85-6, .511 vs. spread.