NFL Week 14: Our picks for Dolphins-Titans, Cowboys-Eagles, Bills-Chiefs, upsets and all of the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 14 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

TITANS (4-8) at DOLPHINS (9-3)

Line: MIA by 13.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 41-16.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.

Miami is 8-0 vs. teams with a losing record, and is in the midst now of five of those in a row in facing a Tennessee team that is 0-6 on the road. I might mention here that the Dolphins are 5-0 at home. I might also mention that Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill et. al will be facing a Titans team with a decidedly subpar pass defense — but that might be piling on, so I won’t. There is always the risk of Miami taking a bad opponent lightly, but that 8-0 record we mentioneed is a pretty good track record to the contrary. And these are necessary wins with the Fins fighting not only for the AFC East crown but for the AFC‘s No. 1 seed. Miami was last 9-3 in 2001, so these are heady days. This also is the club’s first time hosting the Monday night stage since December 11, 2017, so the atmosphere figures to be special. (Alas, longtime former Fin Ryan Tannehill is watching from the Titans sideline these days.) Somebody Miami will lose again to a bad team. Won‘t be Monday night.

GAME OF THE WEEK

EAGLES (10-2) at COWBOYS (9-3)

Line: DAL by 3 1/2.

Cote’s picks: DAL, 30-27.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

The NFL scheduler who divined this as a late-season prime-time gem is doing a peacock walk this week. Both NFC East rivals can clinch a playoff spot by winning (if other results fall just right). Winner also bumps up in the race for No. 1 conference seed. This result could reframe the league MVP race, too, with Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts both among front-runners. Philly won the first meeting 28-23 and, coming off that huge loss to San Fran last week, its hard to imagine the Eagles losing two straight. I can, though. They will. I like Dak vs. a Birds D allowing fourth-most passing yards in league. Dallas is 6-0 at home, has won five straight at home vs. Philly, and also enjoys a rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday. (Good to see an NFL over/under top 50 points, by the way. Makes me feel nostalgic!)

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BILLS (6-6) at CHIEFS (8-4)

Line: KC by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BUF 28-24.

TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “Buffalaaawwwk!” Unusual context for our Game of the Week runner-up, with Bills on a three-game losing streak and K.C. having lost three of its past five. Chiefs lost to Green Bay on Sunday night and rarely drop two in a row under Patrick Mahomes. But Buffalo enjoys a big rest/prep edge coming off a bye and an even bigger edge in desperation and need. Bills must win out for any prayer of catching Miami in the AFC East and must get on a roll even to snatch a wild-card spot. The over/under here is 48.5, and that’s just on shots of Taylor Swift up in the suite. Should be high-scoreing, too. If Josh Allen limits the picks to one or none ... upset! ”You go that right,” nods U-Bird. “Allen outplays Mahomes, Buffalo’s defense outplays Chiefs’ D, and Taylor smears her red lipstick wolfing down a chili dog. Aawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 14:

Thursday night: @Steelers (-6) over Patriots, 17-13: Find this full prediction capsule separately here.

@Falcons (6-6, -2 1/2) over Buccaneers (5-7), 20-17: First place in the weak NFC South is in play. Atlanta won earlier meeting 16-13 and I would expect a rematch every bit as competitive and as low-watt on excitement. Tossup, but Falcs have been decent at home this year (4-2) so let’s ride the venue.

Lions (9-3, -3 1/2) over @Bears (4-8), 23-20: Detroit is a bit of a wobbly 9-3 after surviving a bunch of close calls lately, including last month’s 31-26 win over Chicago that the Bears led 12 points with four minutes left. Chitown has QB Justin Fields back from injury since then, and his team is coming off a bye.

Colts (7-5, +1) over @Bengals (6-6), 27-23: Upset! (Well, a lil’ one.) Indy has won four in a row and is 5-1 on the road. Cincy is home favorite (though negligible) because QB Jake Browning was great in his maiden NFL start Monday night. Expect a drop-off. Plus, Colts RB Zach Moss will chew clock vs. Cincy’s subpar run D to keep Browning off the field.

@Browns (7-5, -3) over Jaguars (8-4), 17-13: Jax is 5-0 away from home and likely would be favored here if not for Monday night’s ankle injury that makes QB Trevor Lawrence almost certain to not play. That means C.J. Beathard for his first NFL start since 2020, a huge dropoff. Cleveland is down to recycled veteran Joe Flacco (less a dropoff) and is 5-1 at home.

@Saints (5-7, -4 1/2) over Panthers (1-11), 24-13: N’Awlins QB Derek Carr was in the grips of concussion protocol as of Thursday and very iffy to play. Backup Jameis Winston, about to turn 30, is erratic but with an upside and out to show he’s still starter material somewhere. Carolina only lost 20-17 in teams first meeting but is seldom if ever a good bet.

Texans (7-5, -3 1/2) over @Jets (4-8), 21-16: The Upset Bird really wanted this game. Was flying over my house with one of those “Fire Manny Diaz”-type banners the small planes pull. Sorry, couldn’t do it. Sure, it’s possible the highly unanticipated return of QB Zach Wilson could spark the Planes. Yes, it’s possible the injury to top WR Tank Dell could derail C.J. Stroud a bit. But these are not things you’d actually bet on. (P.s, remember when Breece Hall seemed really good?

@Ravens (9-3, -7 1/2) over Rams (6-6), 27-17: L.A. has won three in a row led by the return of RB Kyren Williams and should make this competitive. But Baltimore is on a 6-1 run coming off a bye and the Ravens are smokin’ hot on offense, great on defense and jostling with Miami for the best best team in the AFC at the moment. Unless the Crows are already looking ahead to San Fran on Christmas night, they should T.C.B. at home.

Vikings (6-6, -3) over @Raiders (5-7), 27-23: With both teams coming off a bye the big story here is Vikings WR Justin Jefferson’s (likely) first appearance since a Week 5 hamstring injury. Patient fantasy owners are thinking big. Problem is, Josh Dobbs is coming off a four-pick game and may be on a short leash with backup Nick Mullens now healthy. With Jefferson back and Vegas’ Davante Adams facing a weak Vikes secondary, the “over” on that 40.5 number is looking good. But watch Minny DC Brian Flores unleash the blitz against Aidan O’Connell.

@49ers (9-3, -10 1/2) over Seahawks (6-6), 34-17: San Fran is coming off a convincing 42-19 statement win over Philly, so a natural letdown might be a concern here. But Niners are fighting to win the NFC No. 1 seed and can be the first to clinch a playoff spot here by winning — if the Vikings or Packers lose. Plus, this is a division rival, and Frans have won 10 in a row in their four-team group. SF beat ‘Hawks 31-13 just two weeks ago. Sounds about right again.

@Chargers (5-7, -3) over Broncos (6-6), 24-20: This might have been the toughest call of Week 14 for me. Denver on a healthy 12-6 run in this series, although Broncos also are on a 3-14 skid on the road and a 2-11 slump overall within the AFC West. Justin Herbert should click against an overrated Denver defense, although a little more help from a stalled Austin Ekeler would be well-timed.

Packers (6-6, -6 1/2) over @Giants (4-8), 21-17: In a game sharing the Monday night bill with Dolphins-Titans, the big(ish) point spread favoring the Pack suggests bettors are swooning over the upward trajectory of Jordan Love. I’d feel better if I were sure Aaron Jones and Christian Watson both would be available. NYG is coming off a bye and Biggies should keep it inside the bet-line.

OFF THIS WEEK

Cardinals (3-10; next vs. 49ers): This marks the end of bye weeks. Bye-bye, byes. ‘Zona is better with Kyler Murray’s return and upset Steelers last week but still is miles out of the playoff hunt and dreaming of the draft.

Commanders (4-9; next @Rams): That 2-0 starts seems years ago. Washington’s rout-loss at home to Miami was its fourth straight to plunder playoff hopes, and the seat under coach Ron Rivera is getting toasty again.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday.]

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

We anticipated a dip after going a surreal 14-2 both ways in Week 13 and saw one, but survived it pretty well. The 8-5 straight-up didn’t delight me. but the hard-fought 7-6 ATS was a plus. Endured some close-call near misses but ended strong by nailing Packers and Bengals with the points in Sunday and Monday night covers to end the week. Let’s keep the roll going and finish strong as the stretch runs nears. [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Steelers (-6) over Patriots, 17-13. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 13: 8-5, .615 overall; 7-6, .538 vs. spread.

Season: 120-73, 622 overall; 96-91-6, .513 vs. spread.