NFL Week 15: Our picks for Miami Dolphins vs. Jets, Cowboys-Bills, a pair of upsets and all the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 15 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

JETS (5-8) at DOLPHINS (9-4)

Line: MIA by 8 1/2.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 27-17.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

Miami enters a game carrying some pressure for the first time all season. The Dolphins’ first three losses were against quality teams on the road. Monday night’s loss was against the 4-8 Titans, at home, and the 28-27 defeat happened in the worst way, with a 14-point lead blown on an utter defensive collapse in the last four minutes. Another home loss Sunday against the bitter-rival Jets would have the Fins suddenly staggering and the AFC East title in doubt. And, with the regular season schedule closing brutally vs. the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills, this Jets game has almost a must-win feel to it for Miami. OK, that’s the framework. Now on to the game itself. Miami is more talented and should win comfortably. Fins are on a 10-2 series run including a 34-13 win just last month up there, and have beaten the Jets seven straight times in Miami. But the usually steady NYJ defense and the Zach Wilson we saw last week gives the Planes a shot, especially in a ratcheted-up division game. Injuries are a giant key for Miami. Fins hope to have safety Jevon Holland back, but will superstar WR Tyreek Hill (ankle) play? They need him urgently after the way the offense sagged when he was out Monday night. Dolfans also must hope the absence of center Connor Williams doesn’t make a crapshoot of exchanges with Tua Tagovailoa. I expect a huge home performance by Miami. Then again, I expected that Monday, too. Is this Miami team, at 9-4, the Super Bowl contender it thinks it is? The final four-game stretch will provide the answer — beginning Sunday.

GAME OF THE WEEK

UPSET OF THE WEEK

COWBOYS (10-3) at BILLS (7-6)

Line: BUF by 2.

Cote’s picks: DAL, 31-28.

TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” croons the Upset Bird. “Cowbaaawwwk!” Both teams coming off huge wins (Dallas over Philly, Buffs over K.C.), but no letdowns allowed here. Cowboys can clinch playoff spot with win or other results aligning, while Bills are scrambling just to make the playoffs but think the AFC East crown is still in play. I get the point spread. Dallas is mighty at home but all three losses have been on the road; in fact, the Boys have lost 13 of their past 21 away from home. And Buffalo in winter is an italicized home edge. Nevertheless! The two defenses — and which can bother the opposing quarterback more — will define this result. And I trust Dallas’ playmakers on D such as Micah Parsons and Da’Ron Bland against Josh Allen, who has thrown an least one interception in nine straight games. “Allen’s mistake propensity coupled with Dallas’ plus-10 turnover differential do not augur well for the home team,” notes U-Bird. “Therefore, an upset. Upsaawwk! Roger Staubaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 15:

Thursday night: @Raiders (-3) over Chargers, 20-16: Find this full prediction capsule separately here.

@Bengals (7-6, -3) over Vikings (7-6), 21-17: Same won-lost records here, but the first of three Saturday games finds Cincy needing the win more desperately in the more crowded AFC playoff chase. Bengals have won four straight at home vs. Vikes, and clear edge to Jake Browning over Nick Mullens in the battle of backup QBs.

Steelers (7-6, +1 1/2) over @Colts (7-6), 19-16: Upset! Big game in lower tier of AFC playoff chase. Mitch Trubisky expected to pitch again for Pitt, but should get more ground help from Najee Harris vs. shaky Colts run D in this middle game of Saturday’s tripleheader. Indy has lost five in a row at home to Steelers, who enjoy added rest/prep after playing last Thursday.

@Lions (9-4, -4 1/2) over Broncos (7-6), 27-17: Saturday’s prime-time game sees Detroit able to clinch a playoff spot with a win if a few other results fall just right. Quality matchup, with Denver on a 6-1 heater and a 15-5 run vs. teams with a winning record, while Lions have dropped two of past three. Broncos tempt getting four points, but I like Motown and Jared Goff with a convincing home rebound after last week’s stinker of a loss in Chicago.

@Browns (8-5, -3) over Bears (5-8), 24-16: Coach Matt Eberflus and QB Justin Fields are fighting for their futures in Chicago and have turned sneaky dangerous, winning won two in a row and three of four. But veteran fill-in Joe Flacco has been tonic for Cleveland’s offense and proved capable of keeping Browns on playoff pace. Venue a big factor here, too, with Earthtones on a 9-2 run at home and Chitown mired in a 2-9 road swoon.

@Packers (6-7, -3 1/2) over Buccaneers (6-7), 23-20: Battle of the Bays finds Bucs clinging to a tiebreaker lead in the weak NFC South and Pack hanging onto the seventh and last playoff spot in the conference. Green Bay’s home edge grows in Frozen Tundra time. Jordan Love has been quite good lately and now hopes to have weapons Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back from injury.

@Titans (5-8, -3) over Texans (7-6), 27-23: Coin flip of a game, with Houston likely to bounce back from a rout loss to Jets and Tennessee facing risk of a letdown after that crazy 28-27 upset win in Miami on Monday night. I lean with the home team largely because Texans QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) and top WR Nico Collins (calf) both were iffy to play as of Thursday.

Chiefs (8-5, -7 1/2) over @Patriots (3-10), 23-16: The Drama Bowl. K.C. has lost two straight and four of past six, the frustration showing in Patrick Mahomes’ whining about the officiating last week. (Can we find a way to blame Taylor Swift?) Meanwhile Bill Belichick parries growing questions about his future in New England with his team already playoff-eliminated. Pats can cover here with a massive defensive showing at home, but cannot see an offense that has scored 23 total points in the past three home games outscoring even a struggling Mahomes.

@Saints (6-7, -6) over Giants (5-8), 17-16: For two losing teams, a stout matchup. N’Awlins is well alive in the NFC South race, while NYG has won three in a row with an offense come to life behind Tommy DeVito and improved defense. With Derek Carr’s receivers room an injury-wracked shambles, expect low-scoring Biggies to cover.

Falcons (6-7, -3) @Panthers (1-12), 23-17: Carolina was first team eliminated from playoff contention, while Atlanta improbably is in thick of the terrible NFC South race. Erratic Falcons won first meeting 24-10 in season opener and should roll again, though ATL cannot be trusted. Panthers defense ranks fourth in yards allowed but 31st in points because its lousy offense keeps gifting short fields to opponents.

@Rams (6-7, -6 1/2) over Commanders (4-9), 34-13: Washington in three straight losses has been outscored by 77 points as the seat under coach Ron Rivera reaches spontaneous combustion levels. For L.A. the return of RB Kyren Williams has been a lightning-bolt spark, and Matthew Stafford has 10 TDS and one pick over his last three games. Opposite directions and high likelihood of a rout.

49ers (10-3, -12) over @Cardinals (3-10), 27-17: San Fran already has clinched playoff ticket and can claim NFC West title with a win or a loss by Rams. The 49ers are rolling like a big wheel as Super Bowl favorites with NFL’s most balanced team — offense and defense, run and pass. They have won five straight games by an average margin of 21.4 points, and three in a row over Arizona by 72 points’ difference. This could be another such rout ... but will it be? With Baltimore up next for SF in what could be a Super Bowl preview? Niners won’t lose but, with an eye on Ravens, lean Cards with the points.

Ravens (10-3, -3 1/2) over @Jaguars (8-5), 24-16: Our Game of the Week runner-up is a delicious duel for prime-time Sunday as two AFC division leaders meet. Baltimore can be first in conference to clinch playoff spot with a win if other results fall right. Ravens visit San Fran next week but cannot afford a look-ahead effort, with losses in four of past five trips to Jax. Steering this result: A Ravens defense leading the league in sacks vs. a QB in Trevor Lawrence who probably shouldn’t even be playing after suffering a high-ankle sprain just two weeks ago.

Eagles (10-3, -3 1/2) over @Seahawks (6-7), 30-20: Monday nighter finds Philly able to clinch playoff spot with a win or other results aligning just right. Both teams looking for a lift, Eagles off two straight losses and Seattle’s four-loss streak its worst since 2010. Strong lean to Birds on a 9-1 run as favorites, while Seahawks have lost six straight as ‘dogs and are 2-10 in past dozen games under the lights. Plus, QB Geno Smith (groin) was iffy to play as of Thursday.

[Note: Betting lines via ESPN Bet sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

We bull’s-eyed our Upset of the Week pick with Bills winning at Chiefs (“Aawwk!”) -- but that was about it for the good news. Endured a rare losing week straight-up at 7-8, though managed to go even against the spread, with the Vikings’ three-point win the push. In addition to Buffalo we had three other dogs-with-points on covers by the Patriots, Bears and Giants. Missing the upset win by the Jets hurt especially bad. I wrote in the predix preview capsule, “The Upset Bird really wanted this game. Was flying over my house with one of those “Fire Manny Diaz”-type banners the small planes pull” -- but then didn’t find the cojones to pull the trigger. Oh well. Let’s bounce back and own the stretch run! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Raiders (-3) over Chargers, 20-16. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 14: 7-8, .467 overall; 7-7-1, 500 vs. spread.

Season: 127-81, 611 overall; 103-98-7, .512 vs. spread.