NFL Week 16: Our picks for Miami Dolphins vs. Cowboys, Ravens at 49ers, pair of upsets & all the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 16 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

COWBOYS (10-4) at DOLPHINS (10-4)

Line: MIA by 1.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 31-28.

TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.

Week 16’s Game of the Week runnerup is a Christmas Eve gift of a matchup and near pick-’em, with Miami a negligible 1-point home fave. Dolphins clinch AFC East title with a win if Bills lose on Saturday. Dallas already is in playoffs but still fighting to win NFC East. Both teams have something to prove. Cowboys are only 3-4 on the road and must rebound from last week’s jarring 31-10 loss at Buffalo. Dolphins’ 10 wins have included nine against teams currently with a losing record; the other was against a .500 team. Can they finally beat a winning team? Another question to be answered: Will Dolphins superstar WR Tyreek Hill play? The answer seemed to be trending yes as of Thursday. They didn’t need him to rout the Jets. They’ll need him to beat Dallas. I expect Hill to play in favoring Miami to finally beat a winning team. Two other factors for me: 1) The Dallas O-line has leaked to allow 10 sacks in past three games, and I think Miami’s pass rush will bother Dak Prescott. 2) The Bills ran all over the Cowboys for 266 rushing yards last week, which bodes pretty well for Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. So, can Miami finally beat a winning team? The Fins hate the question. Now, Sunday, they can finally make it go away.

GAME OF THE WEEK

RAVENS (11-3) at 49ERS (11-3)

Line: SF by 5.

Cote’s picks: SF, 27-23.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ABC/ESPN+.

Game of the Week committee took the holiday week off. This Monday nighter was a foregone pick. This marks only the third time since 1970 merger that the two teams with the best record in each conference have met in December. Has the full heft and feel of a Super Bowl preview. Both No. 1 seeds and first-round byes are in play here, and Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson are both high in league MVP odds. Baltimore has won four in a row and can clinch the AFC North with a win if Cleveland loses. San Fran has won six straight and has clinched the NFC West. Ravens are 6-1 on the road and Niners 5-1 at home. You need a microscope to see weaknesses on either side. Ravens are playing the disrespect card for being underdogs. Except they aren’t being disrespected. The 49ers are that good, with the best balance of run/pass and offense/defense in football. The two defenses are close to bottom-line comparable but SF’s edge with the ball is clear, especially with Crows missing RB Keaton Mitchell to heap added pressure on Jackson to do it all. But here’s my respect for BAL: Bet-line is big. Ravens cover.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

SEAHAWKS (7-7) at TITANS (5-9)

Line: SEA by 2 1/2.

Cote’s picks: TEN, 21-20.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Footballs roasting on an open fire, Jack Frost nipping at my aaawwwk!” Tennessee is eliminated from playoff contention and coiled in spoiler mode at home as Seattle travels at risk of taking Titans lightly after Seahawks’ big upset win over Philly on Monday night behind sub-QB Drew Lock. Geno Smith is set to return from a groin injury ... but is that smart? Titans also face a QB change, with Will Levis very iffy with an ankle sprain and old friend Ryan Tannehill poised to start. Tanny was shocked to have been benched earlier this season and should be super-motivated to prove he still has it. And Derrick Henry should get untracked vs. a bottom-tier SEA run defense. “Agreed on Tannehill’s motivation and Seattle maybe coming in overconfident,” adds U-Bird. “Tannehaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 16:

Thursday night: @Rams (-4) over Saints, 23-16: Find this full prediction capsule separately here.

Bengals (8-6, -2 1/2) over @Steelers (7-7), 20-17: First of two Saturday games sees this AFC North duel huge in playoff hunt after Cincy’s three straight wins and Pitt’s three straight L’s. Desperate Steelers turning to QB Mason Rudolph for only his third start since 2000. That desperation and a 5-1 run in division games makes for a tempting home dog, but I’m riding the hot team and hot hand of Jake Browning.

Bills (8-6, -12) over @Chargers (5-9), 31-13: Saturday’s prime-time game finds Buffalo at risk of a letdown after last week’s huge win over Dallas -- more so with Bolts giving up 63 points last week to get coach Brandon Staley and the GM both fired. Teams sometimes get a coaching-change bump and Bills are only 2-4 on road, but hot Buffs still think they can pinch the AFC East title away from Miami and won’t let this one slip. Can’t see Easton Stick outscoring Josh Allen and a running game flexing under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

Colts (8-6, +1) over @Falcons (6-8), 24-20: Upset! Both teams are still in the hunt to win their conference’s weak South divisions. Falcons need to get Bijan Robinson going vs. a shaky Colts run-D, but Indy arrives rolling on a 5-1 run and has been good this season (5-2) on the road. Nags expect RB Jonathan Taylor back after three games’ absence and also hope WR Michael Pittman clears concussion protocol.

Lions (10-4, -3 1/2) over @Vikings (7-7), 23-20: Detroit clinches NFC North with a win, and can make playoffs even with a loss if Rams and Seahawks both lose. Minny is very much alive but can ill afford a loss. Lions are on a 9-3 run on the road (5-2 this year), but Vikes have won five straight at home in this rivalry and entice as a home dog, especially with that extra half-point on the bet-line. Don’t trust QB Nick Mullens for the outright win, though.

@Jets (5-9, -3) over Commanders (4-10), 17-13: Game of the Weak, with both teams out of all playoff hopes. Aaron Rodgers reportedly will be activated but it’s false drama; he will not play. With Zach Wilson (concussion) iffy for NYJ, it’s Trevor Siemian in the on-deck circle. Washington has allowed 35.6 points in its five-game losing streak, while a Jets defense embarrassed by Miami last week will be amped and should dominate a slumping Sam Howell.

Packers (6-8, -5) over @Panthers (2-12), 24-13: Two straight losses, both as favorites, have knocked Green Bay near the bottom of playoff contention -- still alive, but no margin of error left. Pack is also on a 1-5 skid on the road, but give us Jordan Love managing to outpoint the NFL’s foryuth-worst scorign offense. ads

Browns (9-5, -2 1/2) over @Texans (8-6), 24-17: Cleveland presently is AFC’s No. 5 seed and can cinch a playoff spot with a win if a handful of other results all fall right. Houston is alive but on the far edge in tiebreaker territory for the final wild card spot. Browns have not been great on road but have won three straight over Texans. Veteran QB Joe Flacco has provided Cleveland a real lift, but pick leans that way mainly because HOU rookie QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) has been trending doubtful, with Case Keenum on call.

@Buccaneers (7-7, -2 1/2) over Jaguars (8-6), 20-17: Two division leaders here (both on a tiebreaker), but also two teams not yet assured of a playoff ticket. Jax has been a good road team at 5-1. Tampa has won three in a row and past two meetings in series but is on a 1-8 skid vs. AFC foes. Would probably lean Jags except for the big risk that a concussion may sideline Trevor Lawrence, and it’s a big ol’ drop to C.J. Beathard.

@Bears (5-9, -4 1/2) over Cardinals (3-11), 23-20: Chicago is technically still alive in playoff hunt but would need to win out and get lucky in about 643 other ways. Arizona is 1-6 on road but capable of an upset, mainly because Bears are 5-19 in past 24 game vs. teams with a losing record. Lean Justin Fields over a soft Cardbirds defense, but close.

@Broncos (7-7, -6 1/2) over Patriots (3-11), 17-10: Could be a prime-time stinker on Sunday night. Sean Payton yelled at Russell Wilson on sideline last week but defense is Denver’s bigger problem -- especially against the run. Expect Bill Belichick to pound the ground, with Pats hoping to have RB Rhamondre Stevenson back from injury. Broncos are (barely) alive in playoff chase and must win. New England is 5-15 in past 20 trips to Denver and don’t see that trend ending here.

@Chiefs (9-5, -10) over Raiders (6-8), 27-14: Early game in the Monday tripleheader finds K.C. able to clinch AFC West crown for an eighth straight year by winning. Vegas still has playoff hope in much the same way it’s possible you might win the Powerball jackpot. Vegas scored 63 points last week but it means little. Patrick Mahomes has an ordinary 93.2 passer rating and his team is only 10th in scoring average, but K.C. still is formidable and on a 14-1 run in division games. Chiefs beat Raiders 31-17 just four weeks ago and that sounds about right again.

@Eagles (10-4, -12 1/2) over Giants (5-9), 31-13: In this middle of three Monday games, Philly already has clinched playoff ticket but three straight losses have Birds in a scramble to win NFC East and still with an outside shot at No. 1 seed. Eagles defense has been a big disappointment but doubt Tommy DeVito and that tepid NYG offense can take advantage. This is the right situation for the homies to get back on the rails. Phils have won 10 in a row at home vs. Biggies. Make it 11.

[Note: Betting lines via ESPN Bet sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

I’ll never complain too loudly about double-digit wins straight-up, although we left some W’s out on the field -- notably a bad misfire on our Upset of the Week thinking Dallas would win in Buffalo. Ouch. (I blame the Upset Bird, who pounded way too much rum eggnog on picks day last week.) Disappointed with our mark against the spread; the two ties were pushes on 3-point wins by the Bengals and Browns. Highlight: Bucs with the points covering at Green Bay. Home stretch. Strong finish. Let’s go! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Rams (-4) over Saints, 23-16. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 15: 10-6, .625 overall; 6-8-2, .438 vs. spread.

Season: 137-87, .612 overall; 109-106-9, .507 vs. spread.