NFL Week 17: Our picks for Miami Dolphins at Ravens, Cowboys-Lions, a pair of upsets and all the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 17 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

GAME OF THE WEEK

DOLPHINS (11-4) at RAVENS (12-3)

Line: BAL by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 27-23.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

An alleged homer, I rarely pick against the Dolphins, and with good reason. But “at Baltimore” are the scariest two words in the NFL right now, with kickoff temps in the 40s underlining that. Mega stakes in play, with Ravens able to clinch the overall AFC No. 1 seed and a first-round playoff bye with a win, and Miami able to clinch the AFC East title and stay alive for the top seed if it wins. Dolphins are really good, and just erased the old can’t-beat-a-good-team narrative by sticking an L on Dallas last week. But Ravens seem on a different level — and proved it last week with that 33-19 triumph at San Fran. The Niners remain the Super Bowl betting favorite but BAL is closing in as a consensus No. 2, with the Dolphins or Philly third depending on the sports book. So this pick isn’t disrespecting or doubting the Fins; it’s heaping praise and love upon the Crows. Lamar Jackson leads an offense as comparably dangerous as Tua Tagovailoa’s, and the latter might be missing Jaylen Waddle to a high ankle sprain. Baltimore also boasts the league’s No. 1 scoring defense. Miami’s next “narrative” to conquer is that it can play physical and isn’t just a finesse team built on speed. A slugfest win against Dallas helped, but nobody does physical quite like the Ravens. Said Fins coach Mike McDaniel: ”To spend your time worrying about narratives, I would be a stressed-out individual. I think it is kind of odd, though. I feel like — I haven’t checked lately — but I feel like we’re pretty good at stopping the run and running the football. That’s generally not associated with cuteness.” Fair enough (and fun use of the word “cuteness”). The Dolphins can win if they can summon their best performance. But not if the Ravens do the same.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

SAINTS (7-8) at BUCCANEERS (8-7)

Line: TB by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: NO, 22-19.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” sings a partying Upset Bird. ”Almost time for the football to drop. Happy New Yaawwk!” Sentences I never thought I would write (one in a series): “Baker Mayfield has been as good as any QB in the league the past few weeks.” True. Now watch N’Awlins’ very solid pass defense bring him back to Earth. Bucs clinch NFC South crown with a win and would remain in contention even in losing. The Fleur de Lis are at death’s door and would be a long shot even if they win. Tampa beat its division rival in Week 4, but Saints are sneaky dangerous despite the record, with as good or a better points-differential than the better-record Eagles, Browns, Bucs and Rams. New Orleans has won four of past five trips to Tampa and also enjoys the edge of having played last Thursday. “Yes, it surely does seem Mayfield is due a reversion to the mean with a chaotic game,” nods U-Bird. “Baker Maaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 17:

Thursday night: @Browns (-7) over Jets, 19-13: Find this full prediction capsule separately here.

@Cowboys (10-5, -5 1/2) over Lions (11-4), 32-23: Our Game of the Week runnerup and lone Saturday matchup is worthy of the prime time stage. Both teams are playoff-clinched but with very little shot at getting NFC’s No. 1 seed so stakes aren’t real high -- but this should be a fun shootout nonetheless. I like Dak Prescott vs. a Lions secondary that gave up 411 air yards to Nick Mullens last week. Also, Dallas has won 15 straight at home by an average margin of almost 19 points, and five in a row over Detroit Expect ‘Boys to bounce back big from loss in Miami.

@Bills (9-6, -13) over Patriots (4-11), 27-10: Pats are coming off a surprise win over Denver and upset the Bills 29-25 back in Week 7. It won’t happen again. Buffalo is surging and with a victory here can still win the AFC East -- if Dolphins lose in Baltimore as the odds suggest. That’s major incentive. Buffs also enjoy a rest/prep edge after playing last Saturday while NE played Sunday night.

@Bears (6-9, -3) over Falcons (7-8), 24-17: Playoff hopes on life support times two here. Atlanta must win and pray; Chicago must win and believe in miracles. Bears have come on a bit in season’s second half (4-2 run) and have won four straight at The Soldier. Falcons are on a 3-14 skid away from home.

@Colts (8-7, -3 1/2) over Raiders (7-8), 23-20: Vegas hit a 63-point jackpot two weeks ago and upset the Chiefs last week, so Raiders make a tempting dog. Stakes are higher for the home team, though. Indy enters holding the seventh and last AFC playoff ticket and would solidify that path with a win, while a loss would cripple the Colts’ hopes. Vegas even by winning would be a longshot. Will feel better about this pick if WR Michael Pittman (concussion) is a go for Indy. Hedge with LV and that extra half-point.

Rams (8-7, -5 1/2) over @Giants (5-10), 27-16: Desperate, spoiler-mode NYG has flipped QBs and will start Tyrod Taylor over Tommy DeVito. LAR presently holds the NFC’s sixth playoff seed and must win to stay on track. Rams offense has been smokin’ hot the past five games led by Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams. The Biggies, even if Taylor lends a spark,. don’t have the point-making punch to keep up.

@Eagles (11-4, -11) over Cardinals (3-12), 30-20: Philadelphia is playoff-bound win or lose but unlikely to get the No. 1 seed with San Fran owning the tiebreaker edge. That and a bad foe could mean a complacent performance by the confounding Eagles, whose defense has allowed 30.8 points on average over the past five games. ‘Zona is in a 1-10 rut on the road but 6-3 in past nine meetings with Philly. Leaning in on a Cardbirds cover.

49ers (11-4, -12 1/2) over @Commanders (4-11), 34-16: San Fran’s No. 3-ranked scoring offense faces Washington’s dead-last-by-a-mile scoring defense. Any questions? Comms have lost five in a row at home, six straight overall and coach Ron Rivera, whose pants are on fire, has pivoted on his passer, benching slumping Sam Howell for journeyman Jacoby Brissett. Niners must win to keep a grip on the No. 1 NFC seed and a first-round playoff bye.

@Jaguars (8-7, -6 1/2) over Panthers (2-13), 24-13: Jax cannot clinch playoff spot but a win would hoist hopes while a loss would sink the likelihood to 40 percent. The dice roll is QB Trevor Lawrence. The Jags’ four-game losing streak has coincided with his spate of injuries, the latest a sprained right shoulder that figures to again limit his game. With much more to play for, though, like J-ville at home vs. a Carolina squad that is 0-8 on the road.

@Texans (8-7, -5 1/2) over Titans (5-10), 26-17: Spoiler-mode Tennessee expects QB Will Levis back from injury. More significantly, Houston is hopeful C.J. Stroud returns as well after missing two games with a concussion. Texans are in three-way tie for AFC South lead but would lose tiebreakers. They sit eighth in battle for seven conference playoff tickets and must win or see their hopes devastated. HOU beat TEN 19-1 in OT two weeks ago sans Stroud, and Titans are 1-6 on the road.

@Seahawks (8-7, -3 1/2) over Steelers (8-7), 21-19: Seattle enters holding the seventh and last NFC playoff ticket and must win to stay on course. Pittsburgh has same record but in the more crowded AFC playoff hunt would be a longshot even with a win, and all but out with a loss. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett (ankle) could miss a fourth straight start, but backup Mason Rudolph played well in last week’s 34-11 rout of Cincy. If that Steelers team makes this trip, they’ll have a medium-high upset shot with a good chance to cover. But lean ‘Hawks outright at home and on a 6-0 roll when favored.

@Broncos (7-8, -3 1/2) over Chargers (5-10), 23-14: Denver coach Sean Payton benching QB Russell Wilson for a third career start by Jarrett Stidham all but assures Russ will be on the offseason trade market. It also signals that the Broncos, though mathematically alive, are conceding they have next-to-zero playoff shot even if they win. Broncs beat Bolts 24-7 three weeks ago and are on an 8-1 home roll in division rivalry. LAC has lost six straight as an underdog.

@Chiefs (9-6, -7) over Bengals (8-7), 24-16: Teams have met in the past two straight AFC Championship Games, but rough seasons for both. K.C. clinches division title with a win but hasn’t impressed, slogging into this game in a 3-5 slump as Patrick Mahomes’ passer rating stands a middling 13th in a once-great offense tied for 11th in scoring. And Cincy must win to be playoff-likely, facing near-elimination with a loss. See a big game from K.C.’s defense.

Packers (7-8, +2) over @Vikings (7-8), 25-20: Upset! With no Monday game. this Sunday nighter wraps Week 17 with a division rivalry carrying big playoff weight. Winner will have around a 50-50 shot to make it; loser will be all but eliminated. Minnesota handled Green Bay 24-10 in October but things have changed. Vikes have lost four of past five and Nick Mullens has tossed six INTs in past two games and now is without missing TE T.J. Hockenson. Meantime Pack QB Jordan Love is en fuego with 15 TDs and one pick across past six games.

[Note: Betting lines via ESPN Bet sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Our 10-6 mark straight up last week was tolerable. The 5-11 stinker against the spread, not so much. I picked a bad week to have a bad week, dipping just below .500 ATS with only two weeks left. Ouch. The near-miss on our Upset of the Week was indicative. Titans led 17-13 with one minute left but fell to Seattle. I was off by two points on Jets’ win. Not good enough. Had Ravens with the points at San Fran Monday night and that was about it for the highlights. Must finish strong! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Browns (-7) over Jets, 19-13. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 16: 10-6, .625 overall; 5-11, .313 vs. spread.

Season: 147-93, .613 overall; 114-117-9, .494 vs. spread.