NFL Week 18: Went 14-2 last week, now come our picks for Dolphins-Bills, a pair of upsets and the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 18 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

GAME OF THE WEEK

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BILLS (10-6) at DOLPHINS (11-5)

Line: BUF by 3.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 23-20.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

“AAAWWWK!” crows the Upset Bird. “You’re welcome, Dolfans. Happy new yaawwk!” Not sure the last time the Dolphins were both the Game and Upset of the Week (and too lazy to look it up), but it has been a minute. The Game of the Week was an easy call. Befitting prime time and the final-game crescendo of the NFL regular season, Buffalo-Miami is all but literally a playoff game — the AFC East Championship Game! The winner wins the division and the No. 2 conference seed. Fins already are playoff-clinched but would see their seeding tumble with a loss. The Bills if they lose would not be assured a playoff spot unless the Steelers or Jaguars lose. So the stakes are clouds high with the playoff path easier for the winner and much more perilous for the loser. The Upset of the Week part was tougher. I sort of get why the Bills are favored. They are the hotter team and, more important, the healthier team. They walloped Miami, 48-20 up there in Week 4 and it was no fluke: The nemesis Bills have now won 12 of past 14 meetings in the rivalry. Oh, and the Dolphins are coming off that ugly, hope-jarring 56-19 smackdown in Baltimore. As if to punctuate the sudden down-turned state of the Fins entering this megagame, Tyreek Hill’s house caught on fire this week (though thankfully no one was hurt). Miami also has mounting injuries, of course, with defensive stalwarts Bradley Chubb and Xavien Howard to miss Sunday night’s game, receiver Jaylen Waddle seeming unlikely, and Hill and Raheem Mostert iffy with injuries though team is hopeful they’ will play. So why do I like Miami in an upset? Tua Tagovailoa is Miami’s first Pro Bowl QB since Dan Marino in 1995, Josh Allen did not make the Pro Bowl and there are reasons for both. The Dolphins defense is much better than in that first meeting, despite the injuries, and though last week certainly didn’t show it. If anything, I think last week’s embarrassing loss will be a huge motivation for Miami along with winning the club’s first division crown since 2008. Finally, Buffalo is 3-4 away, the Fins are 7-1 at home and that matters. The series trend favoring the Buffs also pushes the law of averages in Miami’s favor. “Last week’s embarrassment as a mighty motivator rings plausible,” nods the U-Bird. “Tua Tagovailaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 18:

Steelers (9-7, -4) over @Ravens (13-3), 20-17: Baltimore owns No. 1 seed and playoff bye so has no stakes here and will rest QB Lamar Jackson and others. Hence the otherwise crazy point spread. Pittsburgh, contrarily, can punch a wild-card ticket with a win here if Buffalo or Jacksonville lose. Augmenting Pitt’s sizable need edge in Saturday’s early game, the Steelers have won five of past six visits to BAL and held Ravens under 20 points in six straight meetings.

@Colts (9-7, +1 1/2) over Texans (9-7), 24-23: Upset! Sky-high, must-win stakes in Saturday’s late game: Winner is in playoffs, loser is not. Additionally, a victory wins AFC South for Houston. Indy needs a win and a loss by Jax to take division title. Flip a coin in this near pick-’em game, but Colts won 31-20 in first meeting and series trends have me leaning to Nags again. Colts are 8-2-1 in past 11 vs. Texans, and Houston is 4-16 in past 20 trips to Indy.

@Bengals (8-8, -7) over Browns (11-5), 19-14: Zero playoff ramifications, with Cleveland locked into the No. 5 AFC seed and Cincy eliminated from contention. I see Bengals treating this like their playoff game and taking out their season’s frustrations on their state and division rival. Cleveland hasn’t been great on the road (3-4) and travels for this one with relative disinterest in the result, with Joe Flacco and other starters sitting, and with minds on next week.

@Lions (11-5, -3 1/2) over Vikings (7-9), 27-17: Stakes low, but enough to warrant A-team effort from both squads. Detroit with a win can clinch NFC No. 2 seed if Dallas and Philly both lose. Minnesota can sneak a wild card pass with a win if Packers, Seahawks and either Bucs or Saints all lose. Lions beat fading Vikes 30-24 just two weeks ago. Dan Campbell and Detroit also figure to draw motivation from the officiating mess they think robbed them of a win over Dallas last week.

Jaguars (9-7, -3 1/2) over @Titans (5-11), 21-17: Tennessee’s 8-1 run at home vs. Jacksonville puts Titans in prime spoiler mode here in trying to deny Jaguars the playoffs. Jags are AFC South champs with a win. They can sneak a wild card ticket even by losing, but it would require losses by Steelers, Broncos and either Colts or Texans. So call it a near must-win for the visitors. Teams are hopeful QBs Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) and Will Levis (foot) will play, with Lawrence’s availability paramount. Jax handled Tenners 34-14 in November and should again if Lawrence’s wing is sound.

@Patriots (4-12, -2) over Jets (6-10), 10-6: One of only two Week 18 games (Denver-Vegas) with both teams eliminated. For drama, two questions: 1). Is this Bill Belichick’s final game on Pats’ sideline? (Hard to fathom, but leaning yes). 2). Is Zach Wilson (out with concussion) done as a Jet after being the second overall draft pick in 2021? (Bet on it.) New England has won 15 in a row over NYJ including past dozen in Foxborough. Pats have lost eight games by one score, are still playing hard and should continue the series mastery.

@Saints (8-8, -3 1/2) over Falcons (7-9), 24-17: Large stakes. The winner wins the ramshackle NFC South if Tampa Bay loses; the loser here is out. If Tampa wins, N’Awlins with a win could still pinch a wild card but only if Seahawks and Packers both lose. Falcons beat Saints 24-15 in November, but “Fleur de Lis” had won nine of 11 prior meetings prior, and ATL is on a 2-14 road skid dating to last season.

Buccaneers (8-8, -4 1/2) over @Panthers (2-14), 20-17: It’s all or nada for Tampa Bay. Buccaneers make playoffs via NFC South title by winning, and are out with a loss. The caveat: Bucs QB Baker Mayfield (ribs) is legit-iffy to play, and it would be a steep drop to Kyle Trask in his first NFL start, especially against Panthers’ third-ranked pass-D. Still lean TB on a 6-1 series roll vs. a Carolina squad in a 1-10 rut vs. NFC brethren.

@Packers (8-8, -3) over Bears (7-9), 24-20: Chicago is out and aching to play spoiler to Green Bay’s near must-win hopes. Packers are in the playoffs with a win. With a loss, it’d take a prayer. Excluding remote scenarios involving ties, Gee Bees if they lose would need Vikings and Seahawks and either Bucs or Saints all to lose. Packers sailing on a 9-0 series run vs. rival Bears including a 38-20 win in season opener, but Chitown visits having won four of past five. Medium-large upset shot.

@Raiders (7-9, -3) over Broncos (8-8), 19-17: Stakes are below zero; both are out. The twofold drama: 1). Does Russell Wilson still have a future in Denver. (Seems doubtful.) 2). Will Vegas hire popular interim coach Antonio Pierce full-time? (Leaning yes, but a closeout win here would be big.) Raiders have beaten Broncos seven times in a row, but give DEN a sizable upset shot. Winning to help save Pierce’s job could be the motivation that swings the result for Vegas.

Eagles (11-5, -4 1/2) over @Giants (5-11), 31-23: Philadelphia can snatch the NFC East crown by winning if Dallas loses, but otherwise the Birds are nesting in the No. 5 seed. Eagles have slumped badly with disappointing defense since a 10-1 breakout and did not impress in beating NYG 33-25 on Christmas Day. Philly is on a 13-2 series run but Biggies’ offense has been better with Tyrod Taylor started taking snaps.

Seahawks (8-8, -2 1/2) over @Cardinals (4-12), 27-23: Oh how the Upset Bird wanted this one! He is over my shoulder squawking “Arizaawwk!” even as I type these words. A Seattle win coupled with a loss by Packers sees Hawks in the playoffs, so Cardbirds — a week after upsetting the Eagles — could be spoiler ready here. Seahawks on a 5-1 series run including a win in October, but Zona was without Kyler Murray and James Conner then. Cards pulsing like neon as home dogs, but leaning on playoff stakes to lift Pete Carroll’s guys.

Chiefs (10-6, +3 1/2) over @Chargers (5-11), 20-16: Patrick Mahomes won’t play; hence, the point spread. Locked into the No. 3 seed and with nothing to play for but staying healthy, K.C. will start Taylor Swift at QB. Just kiddin’! (It will be Blaine Gabbert.) Even so, Chiefs are on a 16-3 series run and should beat Bolts by pure habit. LAC is 2-6 at home, has lost four in a row and seven of past eight, and seems to have quit since Justin Herbert was lost to injury.

@49ers (12-4, -4) over Rams (9-7), 23-20: Stakes are low. San Fran has locked up the No. 1 seed and first-round bye while L.A. has clinched a playoff spot and is set as the No. 6 seed no matter the result. So reports are QBs Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford both will sit along with several other starters for both teams. Out of mothballs to pass will be S.F.’s Sam Darnold and L.A.’s Carson Wentz. That makes this pick a crapshoot, so I’ll lean on the team that’s both home and on a 9-1 series run to win but hedge with LAR to cover.

Cowboys (11-5, -13) over @Commanders (4-12), 27-16: Dallas clinches NFC East with a win or a Philly loss, and a W also secures No. 2 seed for the Boys. So no resting starters here. Cowboys infamously are 3-5 on the road. Then again, Washington is 1-6 at home, has lost seven games in a row, and lost four of past five meetings with Dallas including 45-10 carving on Thanksgiving. Point spread only seems fat because DAL may rest Dak, et al, if the lead gets big.

[Note: Betting lines via ESPN Bet sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

The gods of prognostication smiled down upon me in the regular season’s penultimate week. Had our finest week of the season, sizzling both ways at 14-2 and 12-4. Bull’s-eyed our Upset of the Week with Saints over Bucs (“Aawwk!”), nailed another outright upset with Packers over Vikings, and even hit an exacto score with Colts’ 23-20 win. Oh, and the only two games we lost outright? We nailed both of them against the spread with covers by the ‘dog Cardinals and Steelers. About as near-perfect a week as you get in the confounding NFL. Week 18 is appreciably tougher because so many teams not needing a win maybe resting starters. No excuses, though. Let’s finish strong and ride tall into the playoffs!

Week 17: 14-2, .875 overall; 12-4, .750 vs. spread.

Season: 161-95, .629 overall; 126-121-9, .510 vs. spread.