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NFL football is back.
Last week, our picks went 10-6 against the spread.
This week we're backing the Browns and Packers to cover big numbers.
Football is back!
Last week, our picks against the spread went a solid 10-6 to start the year and would have been 11-5 if the Carolina Panthers hadn't missed an extra point. That's gambling for you.
This week, we're back with another full slate of games and looking to make a buck or two. Take a look below at our best bets against the spread for Week 2 of the NFL season (* indicates home team).
LAST WEEK: 10-6
New York Giants* (+3.5) over Washington Football Team
If I had any action on this game, it would likely be on the under, or possibly on whatever the best odds you can find on Washington running back Antonio Gibson to have a good game. The Giants are pretty terrible, and if they don't win this week or next week against the Falcons, have a real shot at starting the season 0-10.
Washington is down to backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke, but he is probably better than you think he is, and he has a dominant defense to rely on the other side of the ball. Still, this is a divisional slugfest, so if New York has a win in them, it might as well be this one.
Cleveland Browns* (-12.5) over Houston Texans
Despite their win last week, I still believe the Houston Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL this year - they just happened to be going against the absolute worst team in the NFL in the Jaguars in Week 1.
The Browns fought hard and lost a tough one to Kansas City last week, but they should be ready to roll in front of the home crowd in Cleveland. It's never fun to lay double digits, but we can make an exception here.
New England Patriots (-6) over New York Jets*
Bill Belichick has never lost to a rookie quarterback making their first NFL start, going 9-0 in such games in his career as a head coach.
On Sunday, Jets quarterback Zach Wilson will be making his second NFL start. While I don't have the stats on Belichick in those games, I can't imagine they're much better for the rookies.
Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) over Chicago Bears*
If the Bears were any other team, I might fear this spot as an Andy Dalton revenge game, with the Red Rifle facing off against his old team. But this game is in Chicago, and Bears fans are so frustrated their team is starting Dalton over rookie Justin Fields that Fields had to step in and ask them not to boo the veteran quarterback.
Maybe Dalton has a double-revenge game, taking out his frustrations with the Bengals and the Chicago crowd with one game of brilliance. I wouldn't bet on it, though.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts*
Before checking the schedule, I assumed this line would be at least six points. The Rams should be one of the most potent offenses in the NFL this year, and the Colts are just okay. Rams roll.
Carolina Panthers* (+3.5) over New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are flying high coming off of what might go down as the most unlikely victory of the 2021 season, dismantling the Packers to the tune of 38-3. If there was ever a spot for a let-down game, it's here, facing a Panthers team that could be a sleeper contender in the NFC playoff picture.
Philadelphia Eagles* (+3) over San Francisco 49ers
There's no team more difficult to figure out after Week 1 than the 49ers. San Francisco jumped all over the Lions through most of their game but then gave up two touchdowns mere seconds apart to suddenly throw everything into question. Was their late collapse against Detroit just the result of playing soft defense expecting the game was already wrapped up? Or a sign of possible deeper problems that could show themselves against a better opponent.
I have no idea, but I am an Eagles fan. Go birds.
Denver Broncos (-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars*
The Jaguars are the worst team in football. I will not be betting on them until they give me a reason to think it is a good idea. I wish Trevor Lawrence the best of luck in 2023, when he finally might have a fighting chance.
Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers*
Las Vegas is playing on a short week after an overtime thriller against the Ravens, but getting nearly a touchdown this Sunday against the Steelers, it feels like they should be able to do enough to keep things close.
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) over Miami Dolphins*
The Bills didn't look great last week in their season opener, but up against a divisional opponent and with another week of practice under their belt, look for Josh Allen and company to shake the rust off and put up some points.
Atlanta Falcons (+12.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
The Falcons offense could not have played any worse than last week against the Eagles, managing a meager six points against a defense that is not nearly as good as the one they'll face this week in Tampa Bay. Still, 12.5 is a lot. Even if the Falcons are trailing by 20 heading into the final minutes, the backdoor is open for a cover.
Arizona Cardinals* (-3.5) over Minnesota Vikings
Kyler Murray might be the most exciting player in football not named Patrick Mahomes and might even give Mahomes a run for his money at this point. The Vikings have plenty of firepower of their own, but it feels like this is the year Arizona takes things to another level.
Dallas Cowboys* (+3.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
This game is a crapshoot. The Cowboys looked great against the Buccaneers in Week 1 but have sustained a series of injuries that could derail the season. The Chargers did enough to get past Washington but looked far from dominant against what should have been a lesser side. It's a coin flip, so I'll grab the points and hope for the best.
Seattle Seahawks* (-5.5) over Tennessee Titans
Last week the Tennessee defense gave up four passing touchdowns to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Russell Wilson is cooking, so look for a big game from him and receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Even with a big game from Derrick Henry, the Titans are going to struggle to keep up.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) over Baltimore Ravens*
The Ravens are coming off of a Monday night game that went into overtime and what must have been a brutally frustrating cross-country flight home after their loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL. Lamar Jackson can do a lot on his own on the football field, but asking him to keep pace scoring with Patrick Mahomes is a lot, even for him.
Green Bay Packers* (-11.5) over Detroit Lions
Once again, we're going to lay double digits. Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his life last week against the Saints, and he's not a guy that likes to let his team down twice in a row. In a divisional game against a dismal Lions team, Rodgers and the Packers should light up the scoreboard.
Before you go betting the house on Green Bay, though, a word of caution - in 19 meetings since 2012, the Packers have beaten the Lions by more than 10 points just twice. The Lions have beaten the Packers by 10 or more on five different occasions in that same span. Not what I would have expected!
But if there's anything I have more faith in than numbers when placing a bet, it's Aaron Rodgers playing with vengeance on his mind.
Read the original article on Insider