NFL Week 2 picks: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, Game of the Week, upset and all the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 2 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

DOLPHINS (1-0) at PATRIOTS (0-1)

Line: MIA by 3.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 24-20.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

Give the living ghost of Bill Belichick credit. He may be defrocked of his genius card ever since Tom Brady left and took the winning with him, but Bill still know how to coach him some defense. He still majors in taking away what the opponent does best, so we have to figure the Patriots will scheme to derail Tyreek Hill as Tua Tagovailoa’s chief target. But even if that words to some degree, doesn’t that just mean Jaylen Waddle’s fantasy owners will be smiling? Miami had nine plays of 20-plus yards vs. Chargers last week while Pats gave up only one such long play in their 25-20 loss to Philly. New England’s defense assures these old AFC East rivals will fill the Sunday night stage with a great game. This is a jinx situation to overcome for Miami, with the Fins having won only twice in past 14 trips to Foxborough. Then again Miami is on a 12-3 run as a betting favorite, and Tagovailoa is 4-0 in his young career vs. the Pats, only proving that trends can bend to your needs. Miami is hopeful LT Terron Armstead is back in action and that an iffy Waddle will be ready, too. RB Raheem Mostert seems the biggest injury concern. Pats are a trendy upset pick, but I correctly had Fins an upset winner in L.A. last week and I’ll continue riding the Dolphins train until it throws me off.

GAME OF THE WEEK

CHIEFS (0-1) at JAGUARS (1-0)

Line: KC by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: KC, 34-24.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

The Game of the Week committee meeting grew contentious as Ravens-Bengals advocates got rowdy and started throwing chairs like Bobby Knight. Order was restored and the vote went to Patrick Mahomes and reigning champion Kansas City desperate to avoid an 0-2 start, at upstart Jacksonville and Next Big Thing candidate Trevor Lawrence. K.C. has won seven straight over Jax, but Jags are on a 7-1 roll overall and get help from addition of Calvin Ridley. Chiefs get All-Pro DT Chris Jones back — that’s huge — but the key will be TE Travis Kelce’s iffy availability. Either way, like Andy Reid and Mahomes to find a way against a young Jax defense.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BROWNS (1-0) at STEELERS (0-1)

Line: CLE by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: PIT, 20-17.

TV: 8:15 p.m.Monday, ABC and ESPN+.

“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Pittsbaawwk!” Cleveland manhandled Joe Burrow and Cincinnati last week while San Fran was doing the same to Pittsburgh. Those results make this pick seem all the riskier. No matter. Steelers come into Monday night’s late game having not lost consecutive home games since September 2021. And Pitt has beaten Cleveland in three of past four meetings including 28-14 last season. Also hunch Brownies coming in with unearned overconfidence. “Counting on trends, intangibles and a hunch,” admits U-Bird. “Intangiblaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 2:

Thursday night: @Eagles (1-0, -6 1/2) over Vikings (0-1), 30-20: Find that full prediction capsule separately here.

@Falcons (1-0, -1 1/2) over Packers (1-0), 23-20: Matchup swung from Pack by one point to even to Falcs by 1 1/2. I get it. Falcons are sneaky-good at home, on a 7-2 run in ATL, and also have won past three homies with Green Bay visiting. And Gee Bees could be missing top back Aaron Jones (hamstring) in addition to WR Christian Watson again to same injury.

@Bills (0-1, -8 1/2) over Raiders (1-0), 31-13: Josh Allen and the embarrassed Buffs figure to be boilin’ mad in their home opener after Allen’s turnovers handed a win to the Jets Monday night. Bills on a 10-1 run at home and catch Raiders hobbled, still without top pass rusher Chandler Jones and with WRs Davante Adams (foot) and Jakobi Meyers (concussion) both iffy.

@Bengals (0-1, -3) over Ravens (1-0), 24-23: Joe Burrow was beyond horrible last week, and his Super Bowl-dreaming Gals are at risk of an 0-2 hole as rival Crows hope to have TE Mark Andrews back. But Cincy has won four of past five in this division rivalry. Also, desperation matters, even this soon, and Bengals have that here. But riding BAL plus that half point.

@Lions (1-0, -4 1/2) over Seahawks (0-1), 27-20: Detroit stunned mighty K.C. last Thursday, so Dan Campbell has had extra time to (try to) convince his Lions to get down off the cloud and not take any foe lightly. The home-opener crowd will help. So will the fact it was Seattle that snatched the last playoff spot from the Lions last year. Seattle also could be without both starting offensive tackles.

Chargers (0-1, -3) over @Titans (0-1), 24-20: It is hard to envision Justin Herbert not finding a way to outscore a struggling Ryan Tannehill. Especially assuming Bolts stars Austin Ekeler and Joey Bosa both play, though each is questionable. Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins also is iffy, but that team needs to feed Derrick Henry early and often for any upset shot.

@Buccaneers (1-0, -2 1/2) over Bears (0-1), 19-16: Do I think Week 1 was a harbinger and that Baker Mayfield, rising like a phoenix, can lead Tampa to a playoff season? Um ... no. Do I believe Chicago is as bad as it seems? Yes. Maybe worse. Bears have now lost 11 in a row and 14 of past 15 dating to last year, and Justin Fields’ arm continues to not be the answer.

@Texans (0-1, -1 1/2) over Colts (0-1), 17-13: It’s C.J. Stroud vs. Anthony Richardson in the year’s first rookie QB matchup. Neither is surrounded with much help, but Richardson has even less as Indy’s Jonathan Taylor mess drags on. Houston has won and tied in last two meetings and should keep the little run going at home.

49ers (1-0, -7 1/2) over @Rams (1-0), 24-18: San Fran looked like the best team in league in Week 1, a fully formed Super Bowl fave. And Niners have dominated this division rivalry, on an 8-1 series run including seven consecutive point spread covers. But Matthew Stafford had Rams flying last week, even sans Cooper Kupp, and should keep it inside a fat betting line.

Giants (0-1, -4 1/2) over Cardinals (0-1), 23-20: Confession: My gut said Arizona wins. Even had that as my Upset of the Week for a minute. Then talked myself out of it, which I rarely do. Or admit to, anyway. Uh-oh? Can’t stop thinking how bad NYG looked in that 40-0 loss to Dallas. Also, Zona has beaten Biggies in past four meetings. If Cards win, I’ll be the distant voice screaming, “Nooooooo!”

@Cowboys (1-0, -8) over Jets (1-0), 24-10: Aaron Rodgers, his Jets season ended after four snaps and one incomplete pass, said he is “completely heartbroken” by his Achilles injury but that, “I shall rise yet again!” But will the Jets keep rising without Aaron? We think not. Dallas’ big defense will make Zach Wilson look like, well ... like Zach Wilson.

@Broncos (0-1, -3 1/2) over Commanders (1-0), 19-17: Two popgun offenses have this one of six Week 2 games with a sub-40 over/under on total points. Denver’s home-field edge isn’t what it once was, but expected return of WR Jerry Jeudy should give Russell Wilson enough to help deliver Sean Payton his first victory as Denver coach. Comms with points, though.

@Saints (1-0, -3) over @Panthers (0-1), 23-16: Earlier of two Monday night games finds N’Awlins, at home, a solid choice to make putting up points a tough task for Cats rookie QB Bryce Young and his limited surrounding cast. Meantime, albeit one game in, Derek Carr looks like a good fit for Saints.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Week 1 is a feeling-out process for predictors as well as for teams. That means the team will take any sort of win, no matter how homely — and I’ll take a 9-7 mark out the gate (8-8 against the spread) and feel OK to launch our 33rd season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald. Glad to have you back with us for the long ride as we take our picks seriously but also have fun doing them. The upside to our season’s start: Went 2-1/3-0 on upset picks, nailing outright road upset wins by the Dolphins over Chargers and Packers over Bears, and also calling the Titans’ cover at the Saints. Onward and upward! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Eagles (-6 1/2) over Vikings, 30-20. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 1/Season: 9-7, .563 overall; 8-8, .500 vs. spread.

Final 2022: 162-107-2, .602 overall; 121-143-7, .459 vs. spread.

Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.