This matchup has been, in recent years, the bellwether for AFC South leadership.
The Colts are 3-point favorites, according to Draft Kings, and the over/under is 42.5 points. The Titans are 1-2 against the spread, and 2 of their 3 games have hit the over. The Colts are 1-2 against the spread, and all their games have gone under.
Colts vs Titans primer:What you should know heading into Week 4
Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Titans cover the spread (Colts by 3)
Let’s be honest: Indy has flat-out looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their offense is 32nd in expected points added (EPA) per drive. Nothing I saw last week suggested that this is a team close to figuring things out.
The Titans, meanwhile, went up and down the field against the Raiders, scoring on four of their first five possessions. They’re a flawed team, but they’re going to be competent and feisty most weeks. I pretty much always give Mike Vrabel the benefit of the doubt when he’s an underdog, and I’m sticking to that here.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Colts 26-20
This is a big early-season AFC South game. Both teams are coming off impressive home victories after terrible road losses. Both teams have also dealt with a lot of injury issues. Each team wants to run the ball with their star backs. So it will come down to who can do it? My pick is Jonathan Taylor gets it going more so than Derrick Henry. Colts win it.
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Colts 24-20
Derrick Henry got on track for the Titans last week to earn them their first win. Jonathan Taylor has been contained for a couple games but the Colts were able to get a big win without him going off in Week 2. The Titans are crumbling a bit up front in their offense and are inconsistent with their wide receivers, a break for the Colts' new-look defense. This is meant to be a Taylor-dominated game and he will let Indy ride him to victory.
David Hill, The New York Times: Titans cover the spread
The Titans and Colts aren’t just A.F.C. South division rivals, the teams also feature two of the best running backs in the N.F.L. Derrick Henry was the league rushing champ in 2019 and 2020, then missed the back half of Tennessee’s 2021 season, when Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor claimed the title.
After the confounding choice not to feed Taylor in a shutout loss to the Jaguars in Week 2, the Colts returned to what works, handing him 21 carries in a shocking win over Kansas City. In that game, the rookie tight end Jelani Woods emerged for two touchdown catches. Henry had to be not only the Titans’ best rusher but, catching five passes for 58 yards last week, also the team’s second-best receiver.
Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Colts 28-23
Both teams are coming off narrow victories over AFC West opponents, but the Colts over Chiefs was more impressive than Titans over Raiders. Indianapolis keeps it rolling at home.
Frank Schwab, Yahoo: Colts cover the spread
I believed before the season that the Colts were the better team than the Titans. I still believe that, though by now that has more to do with the Titans' struggles. Tennessee did get an important win over the Raiders last week, but I still don't think they'll be very good this season. The Colts better win this one.
Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Colts 24-23
After failing to beat the two traditional bottom-feeders from the AFC South, the Colts do the unimaginable and beat the Chiefs in the final 24 seconds. Like the Colts, the Titans needed three games to finally manage a victory, though they nearly blew a 24-10 lead to the Raiders.
Dallas Robinson, Pro Football Network: Titans 24-21
The Colts haven’t been able to get what should be a high-powered, Jonathan Taylor-led rushing attack going, and the Titans – who also want to make their bones in the ground game – could have trouble against Indy.
The Colts rank first in the league in efficiency against the run, so while a Derrick Henry-centered game plan is Tennessee’s preference, they may have to lean on Ryan Tannehill.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: NFL Week 4 picks: Colts vs Titans in AFC South matchup