NFL Week 5 picks: Dolphins-Giants, 49ers-Cowboys Game of the Week, two upsets and all of the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 5 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

GIANTS (1-3) at DOLPHINS (3-1)

Line: MIA by 12.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 38-16.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

Rarity: The New York Giants are an infrequent opponent making only their fourth trip to Miami since 1996. Rarity, too: The Miami Dolphins as the NFL week’s biggest betting favorite at 12 points. That is because The Fins are a really strong home team on a 13-2 run at Hard Rock. And because Tua Tagovailoa et. al should feast on a lousy NYG defense allowing the third-most points in the league. And because the Giants have scored 12 points or fewer in their past four losses, with Daniel Jones operating behind a truly horrible offensive line. Also, Giants are coming in off a short week after playing Monday, while the Dolphins (aside from OT Terron Armstead) are getting healthier and should have Jaelan Phillips back to sail through NYG blockers and torment Jones. Miami’s defense has been a disappointment, but I just do not see this opponent with sufficient weapons to capitalize, or even to cover. I might like Giants-plus-12 if I were sure they wouldd have RB Saquon Barkley and LT Andrew Thomas playing, but that was an iffy quiniela into Thursday. Both teams are coming off bad losses, New York’s turd of an effort vs. Seattle and Miami getting throttled in Buffalo. One team has the incentive that can only come when embarrassment meets desperation. But the other team is home, and much, much better.

GAME OF THE WEEK

COWBOYS (3-1) at 49ERS (4-0)

Line: SF by 4.

Cote’s pick: SF, 27-24.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

Game of the Week committee made fast work of this week’s vote before repairing to the Quill ‘n Swill Pub for an afternoon of boozy torpor. San Fran and Dallas last met in an NFC Championship Game in 1994 but could again this season based on early form. It’s the rare matchup that rises to the grandeur of prime time. Niners ousted Boys from last season’s playoffs, 19-12, but the score won’t go that low this time. Dallas has outscored opponents 108-13 in its three wins, while Brock Purdy has yet to lose (9-0) in a regular-season start for Frans. You know Christian McCaffrey will get his fantasy-pleasing numbers for SF. Can Tony Pollard do the same for Dallas? Niners arrive healthier for this heavyweight bout, with Dallas hoping defensive star Micah Parsons and O-linemen Zack Martin and Tyron Smith all will be ready despite injuries that have them questionable. The 49ers have won 10 home games in a row and should stay on that roll. Hunch Cowboys keep it within a field goal, though.

UPSET OF WEEK

TITANS (2-2) at COLTS (2-2)

Line: TEN by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: IND, 23-20.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” bawls the Upset Bird. “Indianapolaaawwwk!” Two erratic teams that earn nobody’s confidence from week to week makes for one risky pick no matter who you like. I’ll chance Indy to end its four-game home losing streak vs. Tennessee because star RB Jonathan Taylor is back from his ankle injury, no longer sulking for a trade and poised to give the Colts a huge lift — psychological as well as on-the-field literal. Taylor vs. Derrick Henry portends a throwback ground duel that could have points at a premium. “Hope after all this buildup on the significance of Taylor’s return that he isn’t eased back in with an anticlimactic four carries for 13 yards,” notes U-Bird with a cynical smirk. “Jonathaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 5:

Thursday night: @Commanders (-5 1/2) over Bears, 27-23: Find that full prediction capsule separately here.

Bills (3-1, -5 1/2) over Jaguars (2-2), 30-17, in London: Good morning, NFL-for-breakfast fans, as Tottenham Hotspur Stadium fills for the other kind of football. Jags getting LT Cam Robinson back from PED suspension to help bolster a sputtering offense, but Bills counter with season debut of pocket-crashing Von Miller. Edge: Miller. Josh Allen and Buffs firing on all pistons with 123 points scored across three wins in a row.

@Falcons (2-2, -1 1/2) over Texans (2-2), 23-20: Houston has been a pleasant surprise behind impressive rookie C.J. Stroud and a defense that has allowed only two TDs across past 10 quarters. But Atlanta is a different team at home, where it has won four in a row. Key: Better protection for struggling Desmond Ridder, who has been sacked 11 time in past two games.

@Lions (3-1, -10) over Panthers (0-4), 31-13: Detroit is rested after playing last Thursday and has the firepower (even with Amon-Ra St. Brown iffy) to get out of reach for what struggling Carolina rookie Bruce Young is putting up. Panthers surprised Motown 37-23 late last season, and Lions comfortably get their payback here.

@Patriots (1-3, -1) over Saints (2-2), 20-16: Bill Belichick is coming off the worst loss (38-3 to Dallas) of his storied coaching career. N’Awlins is coming off a bad home loss to Tampa, and Derek Carr will play through a sore shoulder if he plays at all. In a near pick-’em game, edge to the home team dialing up big defense that reflects Belichick’s uncommon desperation.

Ravens (3-1, -4) over @Steelers (2-2), 19-17: Kenny Pickett is working with a sore knee and will be missing injured TE Pat Freiermuth, and Pittsburgh will have trouble scoring. Baltimore has won three of past five trips to Pitt, and I’m liking Lamar Jackson to find a way again in this AFC North grudge match. Leaning Steelers plus-4, though.

Eagles (4-0, -4 1/2) over @Rams (2-2), 27-23: Will Rams WR Cooper Kupp make his long-awaited return from a hamstring injury? He is off IR and practiced (limited) Wednesday but had not been cleared to play as of Thursday. But would him playing be the difference? Doubt it. Philly is on a 6-1 run vs. Rams and great on the road (11-1 away streak), and the Eagles’ pass rush will immensely bother and hound Matthew Stafford. Still, lean LAR as a home dog getting 4 1/2.

Bengals (1-3, -3) over @Cardinals (1-3), 24-20: The NFL knows no greater disappointment at the season’s quarter mark than Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Now Joe might be missing WR Tee Higgins to a rib injury. Zona has won four of past five meetings and has an upset lane here if RB James Connor can exploit a bad Cincy run defense. Riding Bengals here, but barely, and nervously.

Jets (1-3, +2) over @Broncos (1-3), 21-17: Upset! NYJ knows it is not good enough to abide a letdown after nearly stunning Kansas City, right? Or to take any opponent lightly ... right? If it’s a yes and a yes, I like Planes’ defense to make it tough on Russell Wilson. And what better shot at a second straight good game from Zach Wilson than against the NFL’s 32nd-ranked scoring defense?

Chiefs (3-1, -4) over @Vikings (1-3), 34-24: Taylor Swift’s favorite team in the whole wide world is due a big bounceback performance from the ignominy of almost losing to he Jets last Sunday night. As much, Patrick Mahomes should see big numbers vs. Minny’s breatable secondary. Vikes have a chance to hang in a shootout but that would take a clean game from human turnover machine Kirk Cousins — never a safe bet.

Packers (2-2, -1) over @Raiders (1-3), 23-18: Monday night stage marks Vegas WR Davante Adams’ first game against his longtime former team. Problem is, Jimmy Garoppolo hadn’t cleared concussion protocol as of midday Thursday so Adams might have rookie Aidan O’Connell targeting him again. Green Bay is rested after playing last Thursday, is on a 14-2 streak vs. teams with a losing record, and should extend the Raiders’ 2-9 skid in prime time games.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].

OFF THIS WEEK

Browns (2-2; next vs. 49ers): Cleveland fell hard to rival Baltimore after QB Deshaun Watson was cleared to play but elected to sit out, rare cowardice from an NFL pro -- especially by a man with his notoriety given that contract.

Buccaneers (3-1; next vs. Lions): Tough test on deck, but Tampa unexpectedly leads NFC South as the resurrection and early comeback player-of-the-year cred continues for Baker Mayfield.

Chargers (2-2; next vs. Cowboys): Bolts handled Raiders with no problem, but let’s see how Justin Herbert and his defense handle Dallas next Monday night to be impressed, OK?

Seahawks (3-1; next @Bengals): Seattle crushed Giants Monday night and has been a pleasant surprise of early season as coach Pete Carroll, 72, continues sprinting up and down sidelines.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Ouch. Couple of big weeks in a row came crashing hard last week with a bad 9-7 straight-up and a worse 5-11 against the betting number. No excuses, just some dumb decisions -- including our thinking Dolphins would win in Buffalo, which only missed by a mile and a half. We did have Ravens with points at Cleveland, but bloody little else went right. It’s OK, though. Remember: Adversity never defines you as much as your response to it. Wait, that seems a mighty highfalutin quotation to apply to football picks. Still. Let’s bounce back! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Commanders (-5 1/2) over Bears, 27-23. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 4: 9-7, .563 overall; 5-11, 313 vs. spread.

Season: 39-25, .609 overall; 32-30-2, .516 vs. spread.