NFL Week 7 picks: Points high, temps low, our winner for Dolphins at Eagles, upsets and the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 7 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

GAME OF THE WEEK

DOLPHINS (5-1) at EAGLES (5-1)

Line: PHI by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: PHI, 27-24.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

“Sunday Night Football” presents a very plausible Super Bowl preview, a game that will shape Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts’ MVP candidacies, and a likely shootout led by wide receiver duos Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The over/under of 52 is the week’s highest in the league. Eagles got good news Thursday when Smith (hamstring), LT Lane Johnson (ankle) and CB Darius Slay (knee) all returned to limited practice and could play Sunday night. Dolphins are hoping CB Xavien Howard (groin) can go as well because his would be a damaging absence against the explosive Birds. This is a first this season — me picking against the Dolphins. A few reasons: 1). Philly lost a huge, stunning upset to the Jets last week, and teams this good tend to bounce back big from such a result. 2). Eagles are on a 4-1 run on SNF and are a strong home team at a tough place to play. And 3). The weather. That’s right. Temps could dip into the 40s by kickoff, and it will be windy with a chance of rain. The Eagles obviously are more used to such conditions and cold than the Fins. The worse the weather the less likely an airborne pointfest, and that too would be an edge for Philadelphia, with a better defense than Miami’s, especially against the run. The Dolphins are a very good team, but it is also fair to note four of their wins have come against really bad offenses (Pats, Broncos, Giants, Panthers). They faced two good offenses, losing to the Bills and beating the Chargers by two points. At Philly, with temps in the 40s, is Miami’s biggest test yet. A win would hardly feel like an upset or a surprise ... but I wouldn’t bet on it.

UPSET OF WEEK

COMMANDERS (3-3) at GIANTS (1-5)

Line: WAS by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: NYG, 21-20.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” trumpets the Upset Bird. “Saquon Baawwkley!” New York showed admirable fight (and defense) in a narrow loss to Buffalo last week, and another heavy dose Saquon Baawwkly I mean Barkley gives G-Men a big upset shot here. He’s facing a Comms run D allowing 4.6 yards per opponent carry. Daniel Jones (neck) is iffy for Biggies but Tyrod Taylor is an OK backup. And this: Giants on a 6-2-1 run vs. this division rival. “Brian Daboll looked like the next big thing in coaching a year ago; now he looks like a guy on your bowling team,” notes U-Bird in a rather snarky aside. “New Yaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 7:

Thursday night: @Saints (-1) over Jaguars, 19-16: Find that full prediction capsule separately here.

Raiders (3-3, -3) over @Bears (1-5), 17-13: Chitown QB Justin Fields (thumb) is doubtful to play Sunday -- “Unlikely,” said his coach. Vegas counterpart Jimmy Garoppolo (back) has been ruled out, it was reported Thursday,. Neither team has a strong backup, an offsetting weakness. The dual-threat Fields is bigger absence and reason enough to like the road favorite here. Raiders struggle to score but few defenses yield more points than Chicago, which has lost 10 straight games at Soldier Field.

Browns (3-2, -3) over @Colts (3-3), 23-16: Cleveland shocking unbeaten San Fran last week is both a reason to starting believing in this team and a reason to be nervous here, because Browns face a letdown. Anthony Richardson’s season-ending surgery means Gardner Minshew from here for Indy. Deshaun Watson (shoulder) could miss a third start in a row but P.J. Walker needs only be careful and let that excellent Cleveland defense do the rest.

Bills (4-2, -8 1/2) over @Patriots (1-5), 27-13: I keep thinking the Pats cannot be this bad (can they?), and that blind faith in whatever is left of Bill Belichick’s mojo keeps costing me. Josh Allen (shoulder) is questionable but should play, and feast on an injury-wracked NE defense. Buffalo had wake-up call with that unimpressive win against Giants, and now Mac Jones faces a Bills defense that has allowed only one TD (total!) during past four games.

@Buccaneers (3-2, -2 1/2) over Falcons (3-3), 20-17: Tampa is on a 13-1 run against Atlanta as a betting favorite. Atlanta has lost six away games in a row and 11 of its past 12 roadies. I’m no slave to trends, but some you ought not ignore. Bucs have a top-10 scoring defense that is especially stout against the run, which is what Birds prefer to do behind Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. NFC South lead to the winner.

@Ravens (4-2, -3) over Lions (5-1), 24-20: Teams that play in London can choose to take their bye the following week and most have, but Baltimore chose not to after beating Tennessee last week. Smart or risky? We’ll see in our Game of the Week first alternate between AFC and NFC North leaders. This is the best Lions team in ages as Detroit tries to get to 6-1 for the first time since 1956, yes 1956, when gas was 23 cents a gallon. But Ravens’ defense is elite. Motown has an injury-wracked running back room, and Jared Goff faces the NFL’s No. 2-ranked unit against the pass.

Steelers (3-2, +3) over @Rams (3-3), 23-21: Upset! Steelers and Mike Tomlin are riding a 6-0 streak following a bye week, and the league’s 30th-ranked scoring offense gets a huge and hugely needed boost with the expected return of WR Diontae Johnson from a Week 1 hamstring injury. TE Pat Freiermuth also will be back. Steelers are on a 5-1 run vs. Rams and a 6-1 roll outright in last seven games as an underdog. Rams. L.A. will be without top RB Kyren Williams and has dropped four of past seven games as a home favorite.

@Seahawks (3-2, -8) over Cardinals (1-5), 31-13: Seattle has won past three meetings, including a pair by 10 points each last year, and this should be more of the same. Seahawks boast a top-five run defense to limit was Cardbirds do best. Also, Zona is on a 1-10 skid in division games and has lost six straight on the road dating to last season.

Packers (2-3, -1) @Broncos (1-5), 24-20: Gee Bees RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) has played only two games all season and is iffy again but they are hopeful of having him back, after a bye last week, to face Denver’s league-worst run defense. Jordan Love has one TD pass and five interceptions in past two games but a remedy might be a Broncos defense allowing 33 points per game. Still an XL-sized upset shot to home-dog Stallions, especially if Jones is out again.

@Chiefs (5-1, -5 1/2) over Chargers (2-3), 27-24: Ninth. That’s where Chiefs rank in scoring offense and where Patrick Mahomes ranks in passer rating. Yet K.C. is in the mix to repeat as Super Bowl champs because the defense is really good. Chiefs also enjoy rest edge here after playing last Thursday while Chargers played Monday night. KC is on a 15-3 run in this division series, and LAC is beset by defensive injuries and on a 1-7 skid as an underdog. Still, lean Chargers against the betting number. Bolts have had all one-score finals, four of them decided by 2, 3, 4 and 3 points.

49ers (5-1, -7) over @Vikings (2-4), 23-17: Tough to make this Monday night pick on a Thursday (as we must) because three key 49ers -- RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel and LT Trent Williams — all are questionable with injuries and day to day. There’s a chance each may play, bu the chance they won’t makes the bet-line feel fat.. In any case 49ers will be amped for a bounceback win after losing their first last week on a late missed field goal, and this San Fran defense is good enough to carry the night. Niners are on a 13-1 run vs. NFC teams. Vikings are 0-3 at home and Kirk Cousins infamously is 2-10 in his past dozen Monday night starts.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].

OFF THIS WEEK

Bengals (3-3; next @49ers): Cincy and Joe Burrow finally seem in sync but face tough test at a Niners squad that fell from unbeaten ranks on missed short game-winning field goal.

Cowboys (4-2; next vs. Rams): Dallas rebounded and won a big one Monday night at Chargers and next travel across L.A. to face a better-than-expected Rams team.

Jets (3-3; next @Giants): NYJ found new life in beating Philly -- NFL’s biggest upset this season. Giants gave Buffalo a fight but figure as home dogs in a New York, New York matchup.

Panthers (0-6; next vs. Texans): Carolina led Miami 14-0 early and didn;’t stand a chance in 42-21 loss. Houston is in rebuild-mode but has been more competitive than expected.

Texans (3-3; next @Panthers): Surprisingly decent Houston faces a likely tough road est vs. a Carolina team hungry to get off the schneid as league’s last winless team.

Titans (2-4; next vs. Falcons): QB Ryan Tannehill suffered a high ankle sprain in London loss to Baltimore and almost certainly will still be out when Titans host Atlanta.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Awful. No sugar-coating our Week 6 results. I would blame the picks coming out in print on Friday the 13th, but there is no excuse available to us. There were a bunch of outright upsets and I didn’t foresee any of them. I had the Jets-with-points over Philadelphia, but that was about it for our week’s highlights. We’ve had four solid weeks and two bad ones so far this season -- not good enough. We are now under the Mendoza line (.600) overall and one game below even against the spread. Unacceptable. Time to bear down, dig in, and bounce back strong! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Saints (-1) over Jaguars, 19-16. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 6: 7-8, .467 overall; 4-11, .267 vs. spread.

Season: 55-38, .591 overall; 45-46-2, .495 vs. spread.