NFL Week 8 picks: Our picks for Miami Dolphins vs. Patriots, Game of Week, 2 big upsets and the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 8 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

PATRIOTS (2-5) at DOLPHINS (5-2)

Line: MIA by 9 1/2.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 31-17.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

Byes take Week 8 off so we get the full 16 games here, baby! This is one of the better ones as two old AFC East rivals meet again with roles reversed. After many years with Miami the dog on Bill Belichick’s leash, the Dolphins now lead the division while Bill looks everywhere for his misplaced mojo. Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 in his young career vs. Bill’s Pats, though the Week 2 win in Foxboro was a less than dominant 24-17. Sunday’s rematch finds Miami the NFL’s biggest betting favorite of the week, but with injury questions lingering. WR Tyreek Hill (hip) was questionable into Thursday but practiced and said he planned to play. RB Raheem Mostert (ankle) seems on track to ready as well and CB Xavien Howard looks like he’ll be back. Miami is out to get past that loss in Philly and if there was any chance they’d take the Pats lightly (there wasn’t), that evaporated when New England stunned the Bills last week -- an attention-getter. Mistake-prone Pats have an upset shot if Mac Jones has a clean sheet, but I like Fins here. Miami is on a 15-3 run at home (3-0 this season), with the defense appreciably better in the 3-0-5. And this offense is good enough to withstand the absence of Hill -- although that on top of losing De’Von Achane is a blow.

GAME OF THE WEEK

BENGALS (3-3) at 49ERS (5-2)

Line: SF by 3.

Cote’s pick: SF, 24-20.

TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.

These teams met in a Super Bowl 35 years ago.. Now back to the present. Cincy off a bye and San Fran played last Monday, so big rest edge to Bengals. Niners QB Brock Purdy is in concussion protocol and questionable to play, with WR Deebo Samuel already out and OT Trent Williams iffy. And a big dropoff from Purdy to Sam Darnold, by the way. Even with the injury doubts weighing against them, give me the 49ers here. This is a really strong home-field advantage, with Christian McCaffrey and a great defense to carry the day. SF fell to Vikes Monday, and good teams seldom stay down.

UPSET OF WEEK

FALCONS (4-3) at TITANS (2-4)

Line: ATL by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: TEN, 17-16.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Tennessaaawwwk!” One of nine home dogs this week. QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) may be out for Titans, and we hear rookie Will Levis may get the call over Malik Willis. Little matter. Titans, coming off a bye, will pound the ball with a rested Derrick Henry and go right at Falcons’ solid run-D. Henry will be bigger factor in what should be a very low-scoring game. Tenners have lost five of past seven at home but pivot on that trend in a ground-borne defensive scrum. “’Ground-borne.’ Not nearly as common as ‘airborne,’” notes U-Bird. “Derrick Henraaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 8:

Thursday night: @Bills (-8 1/2) over Buccaneers, 27-17: Find that full prediction capsule separately here.

@Cowboys (4-2, -6) over Rams (3-4), 24-20: Dallas is coming off a bye and on a 10-game home win streak. That’s a good starting point for this pick. Rams losing RB Kyren Williams to injury is big, but Matthew Stafford has major weapons left in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Thinking ‘Boys rid that home streak but lean L.A. with the generous points. Never sure if Good Dak or Bad Dak will show up.

Vikings (3-4, -1 1/2) over @Packers (2-4), 23-17: Near-even game finds Minny coming off a huge Monday night upset of San Fran but unlikely to let down in a division game at Lambeau. Temps in 30s could be edge for Pack, but Kirk Cousins is still doing big numbers even sans Justin Jefferson while Jordan Love has slid into a funk after a fast start to season. Going with the hotter team led by the hotter hand. That’s Kirk’s.

@Colts (3-4, even) over Saints (3-4), 23-21: Our pick-’em game swung even after Indy was getting one point. Saints with added rest after playing last Thursday, while Indy coming off that wild 39-38 loss to Cleveland with eight lead changes. How will the Nags respond? Well, I say. Colts 3-0 when winning on turnovers and 0-4 when negative, so a clean(ish) game from Gardner Minshew is the big key. Jonathan Taylor and a healthy Zack Moss will help there.

Jets (3-3, -3) over @Giants (2-5), 19-17: Don’t overthink this New York, New York duel. The Jets, coming off bye, have saddled up their defense to rally to life with two straight wins including a stunning upset of Philly -- to be competitive mostly despite Zach Wilson. The Giants offense is 32nd in scoring. (That’s dead-last.) But G-Men’s D has come around a bit, and if Saquon Barkley plays as he says he will, I give Biggies an XXL-size upset shot.

@Steelers (4-2, +2 1/2) over Jaguars (5-2), 23-19: Upset! Game of the Week-first alternate. Pitt cannot hang with Trevor Lawrence if the scoring gets high, but Steelers have the defense to see that it doesn’t. Lawrence will play with a knee brace in what could be wet conditions, which I see as an edge for homies. Mike Tomlin’s guys on an 8-2 run dating to last seasson and have won five of past seven vs. Jax.

Eagles (6-1, -7) over @Commanders (3-4), 31-13: Philly escaped with 34-31 OT win over Washers just a month ago, but Commanders are 1-4 since a 2-0 start and have lost five of past six at home to division rival Eagles. Jalen Hurts-to-A.J. Brown is an en fuego combo, while Comms have lost 21 of past 28 as a home dog. Birds’ major pass rush will maraud through Washington’s O-lIne and mega-bother Sam Howell, whose 40 sacks-taken lead the league.

Texans (3-3, -3) over @Panthers (0-6), 27-18: First pro career meeting between both top-two QB draft picks Bryce Young of winless Carolina and C.J. Stroud of Houston, with both teams off a bye week. Stroud has been better so far by a mile, and that should continue here. Young gets no help from a bad O-line and a bad defense, and won’t find much vs. Houston’s stout pass-D. Still, Cats a tempting home dog to get off schneid with first win. Hope I don’t regret not saddling up that hunch.

@Seahawks (4-2, -4) over Browns (4-2), 20-17: One of only two Week 8 matchups (Jags-Steelers) with two winning records. P.J. Walker starts again at QB for Cleveland as all that $$$ the Browns gave Deshaun Watson looks dumber and dumber from a football/injury prism, issues of morality aside. Geno Smith gets DK Metcalf back healthy, and ‘Hawks defense has toughened lately. Still hunch an Earthtones cover.

Chiefs (6-1, -7) over @Broncos (2-5), 24-16: Taylor Swift will play the first quarter at QB for Kansas City. Just kidding. Only the first series. Naw, I’m joshin’! But Denver has lost 16 times in a row to the Chiefs, so if there was a game to give Travis Kelce’s gal a few snaps, this might be it. Broncos held KC to a 19-8 win earlier this month, though, and this could be close(ish) again as two tough defenses butt heads.

Ravens (5-2, -9 1/2) @Cardinals (1-6), 37-10: Baltimore put a major whuppin’ on Detroit last week and only a massive mental letdown by Ravens will prevent something similar here. Crows ride in on Lamar Jackson, who last week finally displayed the dual-threat punch his fantasy teams have been waiting for. Arizona rides a 1-10-1 skid as a home dog. This is the NFL, where anything but predictability is possible. But I see no shot for Cardbirds here.

@Chargers (2-4, -8 1/2) over Bears (2-5), 28-24: Oddly the second straight Sunday night stage for a hardly deserving Chargers team against a bad opponent likely without QB Justin Fields again due to a thumb injury. That means a second career start for Tyson Bagent, who nobody outside of Ma Bagent had heard of a month ago. Justin Herbert continues to play through a finger injury and has a nice head of hair. Two bad defenses should run the points up and give Bears some big chances to cover a big line.

@Lions (5-2, -8) over Raiders (3-4), 30-20: Detroit as a rare Monday night host will wear alternate blue helmets worn by the club in 1946-69, the era in which the Lions last won an NFL championship (pre-Super Bowl). Both teams are coming off blowout losses; I’ll take only one for the big rebound. Vegas expects to have Jimmy Garoppolo back, but he’ll have a tough time outscoring Jared Goff and that prime time-fueled Motown attack. Raiders (minus-10 in turnovers) invent ways to lose.

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Not quite midseason yet, but we have begun to see this as an NFL year that one survives more than conquers in terms of trying to make sense of it by predicting results. Brutal! Head barely above water at 7-6 overall last week with a scrambling 6-7 against the spread. Our .585 mark overall for the season is lousy -- but as good or better than six of nine on the ESPN Experts Panel. Had some good stuff last week. Nailed out Upset of the Week with Giants beating Washington (“Aawwk!”), had another outright upset with Steelers over Rams, and had Vikes with points over 49ers. Long road left. Let’s rally! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Bills (-8 1/2) over Buccaneers, 27-17. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.]

Week 7: 7-6, .538 overall; 6-7, .462 vs. spread.

Season: 62-44, .585 overall; 51-53-2, .491 vs. spread.