NFL Week 8 picks: Ravens-Steelers and 3 big upsets. Could Tua-led Dolphins be one? | Opinion

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 8 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

UPSET OF THE WEEK

RAMS (5-2) at DOLPHINS (3-3)

Line: LAR by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: MIA 23-20.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” screams a soaring Upset Bird. “Tua! Tua! Tuaaaawwwwk!” It is time. Tua time. Time for the most-anticipated first start by any Miami Dolphins rookie since Dan Marino on October 9, 1983. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa takes the football from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was openly disappointed to give it up after leading two wins in a row and three in the past four games. The Fins’ recent success and Fitzpatrick saying he was “heartbroken” by the decision only increases the pressure on Tagovailoa to be good right away and justify the timing of coach Brian Flores’ QB switch. Having a snorting bull named Aaron Donald across the line of scrimmage won’t make Tagovailoa’s baptism any easier. So why the upset call? Typically I’m not huge on the weight of intangibles, but the limited-capacity home crowd and the Dolphins themselves will be stoked, firing on adrenaline. Miami is coming off a bye week and L.A. off a short week after playing Monday night — another strong edge. Although these teams rarely play each other, I would also note Fins have won 10 of past 11 over Rams including five in a row in the 3-0-5. More tangible to right now, the Rams and Dolphins rank No. 2 and 3 respectively in scoring defense. Miami averages slightly more points on offense. There is little in the evidence to state the Rams are appreciably better than the Dolphins, or at least that Miami isn’t right there. The wild card? Tua. A rookie’s maiden start. And WR DeVante Parker being iffy (groin) is a concern. For this upset to come true Tagovailoa must make quick, sound decisions, the line must give him that extra second in the pocket, and the defense must rise up and insist itself upon a low-scoring game. I see it all happening. “Crows have better sight than humans, with the ability of binocular vision, and I too see it happening,“ notes U-Bird. “Tua Tagovailaaaawwwwk!”

GAME OF THE WEEK

STEELERS (6-0) at RAVENS (5-1)

Line: BAL by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL 27-24.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

Game of the Week calls have seldom been easier. Pittsburgh is NFL’s last unbeaten team, it’s a battle for first place in the AFC North, and also the first division duel since 2013 in which both teams have one or fewer loss this deep into a season. Two excellent teams — the favorites (along with Kansas City) to rep the AFC in the Super Bowl. And what a rivalry! Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh on Sunday will become first NFL head coaches in Super Bowl era to face each other 25 times in the regular season, with Harbaugh having the better of it the past two games and three of past four. One more superlative: Ravens have scored at least 20 points in 29 consecutive games and on Sunday can tie Denver (2012-14) for the all-time record. Baltimore is coming off a bye here, which is big, but still give Pitt a big upset shot. Ravens will find it very tough to run as Steelers try to force Lamar Jackson to win it with his arm. That extra half point on the bet line is begging a Pittsburgh cover in what sure looks like a field goal’s difference.

THE REST OF WEEK 8:

Patriots (2-4, +3 1/2) over @Bills (5-2), 27-20: New England has won seven in a row over Buffalo and nine of past 10 — owning this series all of this fifth of a century. Now the Bills are up and the Tom Brady-less Pats are down. So why am I thinking long and hard on this one? Neither team has impressed the past three weeks, and Bill Belichick is but one good Cam Newton game from continuing his mastery of the Bills against a really bad defense. Watch it happen, and then delight to imagine Cam’s postgame sartorial display. UPSET!

Titans (5-1, -6) over @Bengals (1-5-1), 31-20: Sometimes a single matchup disparity grabs the wheel and steers a pick. Here is one: NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry vs. an awful Gals run defense. And this: Cincy relies way too much on rookie QB Joe Burrow, and now RB Joe Mixon is iffy to play. Burrow has endured 28 sacks and fumbled eight times behind a bad O-line.

@Browns (5-2, -2 1/2) over Raiders (3-3), 30-27: I don’t trust Cleveland as 5-2 good as it angles for its first playoff ticket since 2002. Also don’t trust Vegas, which can’t sustain quality play for 60 minutes and has lost three of past four. Browns have lost Odell Beckham Jr. for year, and an upset would not surprise. Still like Earthtones, but with all the confidence of a nerd on a first date.

Colts (4-2, -2 1/2) @Lions (3-3), 28-21: This one feels like a tossup. Detroit has won three of past four but needed late luck and a miracle to beat lowly Atlanta by one point last week. And Indy of course is led by the seldom trustworthy Philip Rivers. Tipping this one to Indy: Colts are coming off a bye, are healthier than they’ve been all year and hope to have defensive linchpin Darius Leonard back from injury, which is big.

@Packers (5-1, -7) over Vikings (1-5), 34-28: NFC Northies met in season opener, Pack winning 43-34, and another pointfest seems imminent. Gee Bees have won three straight in series and make it four here; the gulf in Aaron Rodgers vs. Kirk Cousins is that great. See this closer than the bet line, though, with Purples coming off a bye and expecting to have RB Dalvin Cook back from injury.

@Chiefs (6-1, -19 1/2) over Jets (0-7), 31-13: Point spreads this big are common on college Saturdays but rarer than tie games on NFL Sundays. No surprise here, though with KC the reigning Super Bowl champ and NYJ maybe hurtling toward 0-16. (Short of blackmail, how is Adam Gase still working?) Expect a solid dose of new Chiefs RB Le’Veon Bell vs. the team that just cut him. Jets’ offense remains moribund but D showed signs of life in 18-10 loss to Bills last week. Yes, Chiefs might win by 40. But I’m not turning down a 19 1/2-point head start in NFL. Not even here.

@Broncos (2-4, +3) over Chargers (2-4), 19-17: Home field advantages have diminished in this season of limited crowds; still, Denver has won six of past seven Mile High meetings in this division series and has beaten Chargers 14 of past 18 overall. I get the point spread, but give me a healthy Drew Lock and Denver’s defense at home in this matchup. Upset!

Saints (4-2, -4) over @Bears (5-2), 30-17: Big variable here is availability of each team’s top WR, with Chitown’s Allen Robinson in midst of concussion protocol and N’Awlins’ Michael Thomas iffy with hamstring injury. Clearly, Bears’ struggling offense needs Robinson more, as Nick Foles has not been any sort of savior. Bears off a short week after playing Monday and have lost five straight to Saints including past two at The Soldier. Can you see Foles outscoring Drew Brees? Me, neither.

@Seahawks (5-1, -3) over 49ers (4-3), 28-24: Quality NFC West duel finds Seattle coming off first loss and San Fran with tailwind of consecutive wins. Seahawks (hard to fathom) have lost four straight division games but are on an 11-2 run vs. Niners, though teams have split each of past two seasons. SEA’s top RB Chris Carson is very iffy with a foot sprain, but, with or without him, look for Russell Wilson to find a way.

@Eagles (2-4-1, -9) over Cowboys (2-5), 31-10: Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome to this epic battle the two powerhouses of the mighty NFC East! Good luck, Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth, trying to package this prime-time stinker as anything but a meeting of two of King Sport’s major disappointments. Philly QB Carson Wentz is doing best he can with a slew of offensive injuries. For Boys, fill-in QB Andy Dalton (concussion) might sit out. Oy. Rookie Ben DiNucci in his first pro start and terrible defense is not a winning combo for Dallas. Or even a staying close combo.

Buccaneers (5-2, -10 1/2) over @Giants (1-6), 34-13: Well, we get a lousy game Monday night. But at least we get to hear the MNF announcers sing the praises, all night long, of the phoenix rise of 43-year-old Tom Brady. (Over/under on G.O.A.T. references: 5 1/2). Another toy for the talking heads to chew on: Bucs signing Antonio Brown, although he won’t play Monday night. NYG has won eight of past nine at home over Bucs, but throw away any Tampa Bay trends pre-Brady. Tommy Gun is on a 15-1 TDs/picks run in past five games, backed by a solid defense. Giants have been competitive the past month or so, making NYG-plus-double-digits tempting. But Brady vs. a regressing Daniel Jones is a colossal mismatch.

Byes:

Cardinals (5-2) — Kyler Murray, solid defense and three straight wins including last week’s rally past Seahawks have ‘Zona in thick of playoff chase in NFL’s best division. On deck after bye: Cardbirds host Tua and Dolphins.

Jaguars (1-6) — As QB Gardner Minshew nurses thumb injury, credit Jax with consistency, at least. In its six straight L’s the Jags have given up 33, 31, 33, 30, 34 and 39 points. Next: Visit by Houston and a salivating Deshaun Watson.

Texans (1-6) — Congrats, Houston! You presently are a finalist, along with Cowboys, Vikings, Eagles and Falcons, for Most Disappointing Team of Year. On deck: A likely road win at an even-worse Jacksonville.

Washington (2-5) — The No-Names are still in the hunt for NFC East division title, which underlines exactly how putrid the World’s Saddest Division truly is. Next: Another epic division battle vs. Giants.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

The downside of publishing your picks for all the world to see is there will be weeks like this. Our 9-5 mark overall last week was fine, but that 5-9 against the spread made us want to change our name and wear a disguise. Or steal newspapers off front lawns like Sally Field in Absence of Malice. Our worst performance of the year ATS. Yes, we had some tough luck. A half-point loss, some blown leads. But, no excuses, we also had three picks we’d like back, like, what was I thinking!? On the brighter side, we nailed Steelers‘ mini-upset at Titans and had a pair of ‘dogs-with-points in covers by Panthers and Jets. Time to shed 5-9 like a snake does dead skin and slither onward and upward! By the way, I believe the preceding is my first career metaphor likening myself to a snake, for those scoring at home. [Note: Thursday night pick was @Panthers (-2 1/2) over Falcons, 27-20. Find the full preview and pick here].

Week 7: 9-5, .643 overall; 5-9, 357 vs. spread.

Season: 65-39-1, .625 overall; 51-52-2, .495 vs. spread.

Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.

Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.