NFL Wild-Card Playoffs: 6 games, 2 upsets. Will Dolphins-Chiefs be one as Super Bowl tourney begins?

GREG COTE’S NFL WILD-CARD ROUND PLAYOFF PICKS

Bill Belichick is “parting ways” with New England and Nick Saban is retiring from Alabama -- the iconic, generational coaching champions of the NFL and college football leaving us in a two-day stunner. From seeming eternal to past tense, just like that. America’s sport pauses, pays respects, gathers itself, then paints faces and fills stadiums again for the start of the NFL playoffs. Because life goes on, but not even life goes on as relentlessly as football goes on. Twelve of the 14 teams in the Super Bowl tournament launch Super Wild-Card Weekend, with conference champs Baltimore and San Francisco off to wonder who they’ll face first. One of the 14 teams will soon raise the Bill Beli -- I mean Vince Lombardi Trophy.

AFC

DOLPHINS (11-6) at CHIEFS (11-6)

Line: KC by 4 1/2.

Cote’s pick: KC, 27-20.

TV: 8 p.m. Saturday, Peacock.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champs, but also have seen a once-dominant offense turn to middle-of-the-pack. The Miami Dolphins became an “It team” with the league’s most dynamic offense, but then faded late and blew the AFC East crown. So help me out here because I’m not sure: Is this an exciting matchup? Or a duel of disappointment? The NFL doesn’t seem sure, either. They put this in prime-time Saturday ... but they also put it on Peacock and made it the first playoff game in history behind a streaming-service paywall. That’s an insult, to not be on the network TV ... unless it’s a compliment because the league thinks Chiefs-Dolphins will convince the most fans to subscribe to watch. OK on to the game itself! K.C. beat Miami 21-14 in November in Germany, and what’s mostly changed since then is that the Dolphins defense has lost several starters to injuries. On the bright side, Fins hope offensive main-cogs Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert will be back from injury. King-cog Tyreek Hill of course makes his first return to Kansas City since being traded two years ago, but motivation is a two-sided coin. Chiefs will want to negate Hill as much as he wants to do an end-zone back flip. It will be the microcosm of the game as Miami has the edge on offense and K.C. on defense. Chiefs’ D blitzed Tua Tagovailoa a lot in Germany; let’s see if they dare do that again. I lean champ Chiefs here because they’ve been in three of past four Super Bowls and are versed in this time of season in a way the Dolphins are not. Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 in the playoffs. Also, because it will be cold enough to freeze the spit before it hits the grounds -- a projected 2 degrees at kickoff. Small sample alert, but Tua is 0-4 when the kickoff temp is south of 10. Miami for any upset shot will have to establish a running game and get in Mahomes’ pocket with its best edge rushers out injured. That’s a lot to ask. Especially against the champions. On the road. With temperatures diving sub-zero.

BROWNS (11-6) at TEXANS (10-7)

Line: CLE by 2.

Cote’s pick: HOU, 23-20.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Saturday, NBC.

Upset! This was supposed to be Deshaun Watson returning to face his former team in Houston in the early Saturday game that kicks off the postseason, but you won’t find many Cleveland fans complaining that it’s Joe Flacco taking snaps instead. He is 4-1 as a prize-find fill in, including a 36-22 Browns win at the Texans fueled by 368 passing yards on Christmas Eve. So why am I picking Houston to flip that and win just three weeks later? Mainly because NFL Rookie of the Year-in waiting C.J. Stroud missed that earlier meeting with a concussion but is back now to show why his team won the AFC South one year are going 3-13-1. (Hint: He is the reason.) The Texans’ defense will show better than it did in the first meeting, Flacco will throw a couple of picks, and Stroud will remind us all why Houston was smart to move on from Watson and draft him.

STEELERS (10-7) at BILLS (11-6)

Line: BUF by 10.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 27-13.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

Buffalo’s biggest concern in Sunday’s early game should be overconfidence and looking past Pittsburgh, with Bills still high from AFC East title win in Miami and at risk of already gearing mentally for next week. Teams did not meet in regular season, adding element of unpredictability. But Buffs are peaking at just the right time (5-0 run) while Steelers lucked to sneak in as the lowest AFC seed only because gagging Jacksonville lost last week. These two cities are but a three-hour drive from each other but further apart in talent, especially on offense. But the one-and-done stakes and an insane home crowd should draw the A-game from Buffalo. Both teams are stout on defense and Pitt’s scoring has spiked since Mason Rudolph took over at QB, but Buffalo with the ball still is more potent. Steelers significantly also will be without top defender T.J. Watt. Pitt’s best upset shot is to force Josh Allen turnovers; then again, he had three vs. Miami and the Bills still won. Steelers are solid on the road (9-3 run away), but Buffs are even better in western New York -- with 13 wins in past 15 home playoff games.

NFC

PACKERS (9-8) at COWBOYS (12-5)

Line: DAL by 7.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 31-23.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

Sunday’s middle game suggests a shootout high on watchability. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should be in the league MVP conversation, while top target CeeDee Lamb has had a season as dynamic as Tyreek Hill’s. And the Packers’ Jordan Love has begun to make Green Bay fans say “Aaron who?” and solidify his future after a 3-6 start, with an 18-1 TD/pick ratio across the past eight games. Love and Aaron Jones are cookin’. Also worth noting: ‘Boys are 1-9 in past 10 games against Gee Bees (though clubs did not meet this season) and 4-12 in past 16 playoff games. Strong edge to Dallas on both sides of the ball, though -- underlined by the Cowboys league-best 16-game home winning streak. Cowboys also are on a 10-0 run as a betting favorite, and by an average winning margin of 20.6 points. Subplot: Dallas coach Mike McCarthy was fired by Green Bay in 2018 after 13 seasons, and bitterness over that lingers, adding one more log to the Cowboys’ fire.

RAMS (10-7) at LIONS (12-5)

Line: DET by 3.

Cote’s pick: LAR, 28-27

TV: 8 p.m. Sunday, NBC.

Upset! Rams’ Matthew Stafford spent most of his career (2009-2020) in Detroit. Lions’ Jared Goff spent first part of his (2016-20) in L.A. The two starting QBs -- both first-round draft picks -- facing their longtime former teams is about a good as playoff subplots get. This, too: Detroit is aiming to end a nine-game postseason losing streak and win its first playoff game in 32 years! (Only Miami has a longer current drought, dating to 2000.) So the Motown crowd will be amped and hoping to party like it’s 1991 as teams meet for the first time this season. I get why Lions are minimal home faves, but L.A. has been en fuego in shaking off a 3-6 start and playing its best ball when it matters most. Stafford has big weapons in Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams. Goff’s offense is as potent or more so -- except sensational 10-touchdown rookie TE Sam LaPorta (knee) was questionable to play and seeming doubtful into Thursday. That would be a significant loss for Goff. The Rams have been decent on the road this season (5-4), but are only 2-11 in past 13 as road ‘dogs. Still, I’m riding with hot Rams and Stafford.

EAGLES (11-6) at BUCCANEERS (9-8)

Line: PHI by 3.

Cote’s pick: PHI, 24-19.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.

May seem odd or even an insult for Philly to be favored by this little against arguably the worst team in the playoffs, but this happens when you start 10-1 and then stagger ‘n lurch to the finish line. Birds seemed in charge of division title most of the season until a late slide. (Sound familiar, Dolfans?) Injuries muddy up this pick, starting with QBs Jalen Hurts (dislocated finger on throwing hand) and Baker Mayfield (ankle, ribs) both expected to play but likely be hampered. Hurts might also be missing top target A.J. Brown. Philly in its 1-5 skid has stumbled on both sides of the all, but more so on defense. Eagles’ 25.2 points allowed per game is most of any playoff team, and Mayfield must be salivating to face a team that this season allowed 43 (!) TD passes. But Philadelphia handled the Bucs 25-11 in Week 3 in Tampa, where team was only 4-4 at home, and should again. I don’t think Birds are a threat to return to Super Bowl but should survive Bucs. Mostly I think: This was the best matchup to end the first round in prime-time Monday?

[Note: Betting lines via ESPN Bet sportsbook as of afternoon Thursday.

FIRST-ROUND BYES

RAVENS (13-4) -- Baltimore rested starters last Saturday in loss to Pittsburgh. Ravens’ Divisional Round opponent next week will be lowest-seeded AFC survivor -- the winner of Browns-Texans game, the Dolphins or the Steelers. Baltimore split season series with Cleveland, was swept by the Steelers, and routed Dolphins 56-19 in Week 17.

49ERS (12-5) -- San Francisco rested starters last Sunday in loss to L.A. Rams. The Niners’ Divisional Round opponent next week will be lowest-seeded NFC survivor -- the winner of Eagles-Buccaneers game, the Rams or the Packers. San Fran split two games with Rams this season, beat the Bucs, beat the Eagles and did not play Packers.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Well slap me left, right and sideways. One week after preening with a sparkling 12-4 mark against the spread that hoisted us up over .500 ATS for the year, a season-worst 4-12 mark knocked us back to the wrong side of the evil betting line. Other than picking Rams-with-points to cover vs. San Fran there wasn’t much to smile about. So we end the 2023 regular season at .629 straight-up (barely OK) and .495 vs. the line -- disappointing mostly for the lousy finish. Only thing left to do now is ace the 13-game postseason. Y’all ready? Buckle up ‘n let’s go!

Week 18: 10-6, 625 overall; 4-12, .250 vs. spread.

Season: 171-101, .629 overall; 130-133-9, .495 vs. spread.