NH challengers have their own road maps to victory

Oct. 24—CONCORD — Thanks to fickle swing voters, New Hampshire has a 20-year history, with one exception, of sacking at least one incumbent for federal office during midterm elections.

With the next one looming in 15 days, U.S. Sens. Maggie Hassan, R-N.H., and Reps. Chris Pappas and Annie Kuster, D-N.H., and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu all hope angry and financially insecure voters don't decide to send a message by replacing them.

The reelection chances for this quartet are quite different but this is New Hampshire where politics is a blood sport.

Translation: In this highly-volatile environment, no one holding elective office can be 100% certain they will declare victory on election night.

"I'm running like I'm 15 points behind," Sununu said, though he's more than 15 points ahead of Democratic challenger Tom Sherman in the latest, independent polls.

Every four years, midterms bring out a smaller, often-better informed electorate and they have been a springboard for many who went on to make a big splash in the pool.

Consider these historical truths on what midterm elections have ushered in:

—Eight of the last 10 elected to U.S. House seats in N.H. first won in a midterm, the only exceptions Rep. Kuster in 2012 and former Congressman John E. Sununu in 1996;

—In the past 60 years, eight of 11 U.S. senators got their first victory in a midterm, Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (2004) and former Sens. Judd Gregg (1992) and the late Sen. Warren Rudman (1980) breaking that mold and;

—The last incumbent governor to lose in a midterm was 40 years ago when engineer John H. Sununu retired the late Democratic Gov. Hugh Gallen in 1982.

Former GOP Gov. Craig Benson lost in the presidential election of 2004, the first governor in 78 years that voters denied a second term.

Governor

"It would take the version of a political asteroid hitting Chris Sununu for him to lose," predicted Dante Scala, professor of politics at the University of New Hampshire.

Sununu's political future brightened when he decided last November to end his very strong flirtation with taking on Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., he said.

"Sherman needed a really good Democratic year and a dinged up incumbent that voters were ready to fire," Scala said.

"When Sununu decided he wasn't interested in going to Washington, the reaction from most voters was, 'Hey, he is one of us.'"

Winning a fourth two-year term is no layup, however.

Democrat John Lynch was the first in modern history to do it, surviving the conservative tea party election romp of 2010 that gave Republicans a 3-1 supermajority in the Legislature.

Former GOP campaign consultant Greg Moore managed Lynch's opponent, ex-Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen, who posed a serious threat but still lost by 8 points.

"In fairness to Tom Sherman, we had the wind at our back. He's running with a gale force in his face," Moore said.

But Steve Marchand of Portsmouth, a two-time Democratic candidate for governor, said New Hampshire is the most pro-choice swing state in the nation and Sununu's signature on an abortion ban after 24 weeks will be his Achilles Heel.

"Tom Sherman is a smart, hard-working candidate who in a relatively short time has put his candidacy in position to shock the pundits," Marchand said.

"Races for governor are intensely personal and while this governor polls well, after six years in office, every governor wears a lot of scars."

U.S. SenateOn primary night, Democrat leaders could not hide their excitement that Republicans had delivered the nominee they wanted and even invested in, retired Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc of Stratham.

How do they feel now that Bolduc, an underfunded candidate who has serially had to walk back or amend past statements, could be within striking distance of knocking off Hassan, a senator and former governor?

"I never thought I'd be saying this, but Hassan is not out of the woods yet," Scala said. "She can see the light but I don't think she is there yet."

Moore agreed it would take a dominant GOP win up and down the ballot for Bolduc to pull it off.

"There is a path to victory for Don Bolduc. He needs to grab that surfboard and ride it into office, that's what it will take," Moore said.

Marchand said the state GOP will regret they chose Bolduc as their standard bearer.

"Maggie is running a smart race and successfully has made this New Hampshire centric," Marchand said.

"They know her well and I really think Bolduc is just too far out of the mainstream to gain the voters' trust."

U.S. House, 1st DistrictNo matter who the opponent, Pappas could not feel safe. After all he's running in a district where voters dumped the incumbent in five out of six straight elections ending in 2016.

Now he faces Karoline Leavitt of Hampton, a young, aggressive first-time hopeful with White House communication skills.

"I think from day one Leavitt and her team had a theory on how to win and they have executed it to perfection. They knew in this climate there would be an audience for someone like her," Scala said.

"She's very conservative, very Trumpian and none of that these days is disqualifying."

Marchand said Pappas, with 20 years of political office experience, has won races in good and bad environments.

It's no coincidence Pappas won his second term in 2018, the only midterm since 2002 when all federal candidates survived, Marchand said.

"Chris has a high likeability, deep roots in the state and time and again he has outperformed Democrats in the past," Marchand said.

Moore predicted Leavitt would beat 2020 GOP nominee Matt Mowers, and said Pappas can't escape a political paradigm with undecided voters choosing the generic GOP candidate on inflation, economy and job growth.

"More than any other Democrat, he's boxed in between a laser-focused opponent and being on the wrong side when it comes to what voters are upset about," Moore said.

U.S. House, 2nd DistrictKuster has won five straight times, more than any other Democrat in modern history, and built a multi-million dollar war chest while her opponent, Pembroke businessman Bob Burns, has had to run on a shoestring.

National GOP elders have ignored this race, concluding they will take over the U.S. House without it.

"We keep underestimating Kuster, her favorability is never strong, yet all she does is win," Scala said.

"By any metric, she is in the best shape and it would take Bob Burns completing a 95-yard, Hail Mary pass to win this thing."

Marchand said Burns' support for further restrictions on legal abortions meant this little-known challenger was on defense.

"Chris Sununu will wake up after the election and regret he couldn't get his Republican candidate (George Hansel) over the finish line," Marchand said.

"Had that happened, we'd be looking at a much more competitive race right now."

Moore said Burns' hopes were tied to how much swing voters will overlook differences on issues or even choose the unknown.

"It would take a tsunami for Burns to win, but it's happened before. In 2010, all flavors of Republicans automatically won then quite a few of them got put out only two years later," Moore said.

"Is this a wave election? You can't rule it out."

klandrigan@unionleader.com