NH primary turnout prediction: Republican votes will eclipse 2016 record

Hadley Barndollar
·2 min read
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A flurry of political mailers target undeclared voters, who are able to decide on primary day which ballot they take.
A flurry of political mailers target undeclared voters, who are able to decide on primary day which ballot they take.
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Secretary of State Dave Scanlan is predicting Republican voter participation will outnumber that of Democrats by more than 230,000 in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday.

In a news release Friday, Scanlan forecasted voter turnout will be 322,000 Republicans and 88,000 Democrats.

Republicans have a more competitive primary as Nikki Haley, endorsed by Gov. Chris Sununu and polling well with independents, tries to edge out former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden won’t appear on the Democratic ballot due to the ongoing dustup between the state and the Democratic National Committee. While local Democrats have launched a write-in campaign for Biden, Scanlan’s turnout prediction reflects that many Democratic voters may sit this one out — and undeclared voters are more likely to select a Republican ballot.

In the 2020 New Hampshire primary, Republicans cast 158,791 votes, while Democrats set a state record with 300,368 votes. In 2016, it was Republicans setting a record with 287,652 votes, and Democrats with 254,780.

As of Friday, Jan. 19, New Hampshire had 267,768 registered Republicans, 261,254 registered Democrats, and 344,335 undeclared voters. Voters had a window between September and October to change their party affiliation to “undeclared,” meaning they can pick which ballot they want on primary day.

In that timeframe, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters changed their party affiliation to “undeclared,” a possible indication that they plan to participate in the Republican primary. An additional 408 Democrats switched to be registered as Republicans.

Numbers from the Secretary of State’s Office on Friday also showed Republicans are dominating requests for absentee ballots: 16,767 Republicans and 9,395 Democrats, for a total of 26,162 absentee ballot requests.

This story was originally published by the New Hampshire Bulletin

This article originally appeared on Portsmouth Herald: NH primary turnout prediction: Republican votes to break 2016 record