NHC increases odds for system expected to develop on Sunday
ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center forecast an increased chance that a tropical depression or storm could form in the Atlantic and potentially threaten Florida in the next five days.
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, forecasters predict a large non-tropical low pressure system will develop on Sunday over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic near Puerto Rico.
Chances for formation were increased to 70% on Saturday for it to form in the next five days and 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours. The system is expected to become a large low pressure area on Sunday over the southwestern Atlantic and then track westward during the early and middle part of next week.
“The system is initially expected to be very broad and disorganized,” forecasters said. “However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic.”
Forecasters said there is an “increasing risk” of coastal flooding, gale-force winds and heavy rainfall along much of the southeastern U.S. coast.
The system is forecast to bring heavy rains to the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Saturday.
If it grows in strength, it could become Tropical Storm Nicole.
The NHC is also continuing to issue advisories on Tropical Depression Lisa now in the Gulf of Mexico while also monitoring a weak nontropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda with a 20% chance to form in the next couple of days into a named system in the Atlantic.
As of 2 p.m., Lisa has dissipated. It is located about 235 miles west-northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph moving north at 5 mph. The NHC is no longer issuing advisories for this system.
“A gradual turn toward the north at a slower forward speed is expected by Saturday morning. Lisa or its remnants are then forecast to stall and move very little through the remainder of the weekend,” forecasters said. “Lisa is forecast to begin weakening by Saturday morning and will likely become a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday night.”
The week has seen the formation of the season’s sixth and seventh hurricanes with Hurricane Lisa striking Belize on Thursday morning and Hurricane Martin, which became extratropical in the north Atlantic by Thursday afternoon.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. The season’s 14 named systems through Martin have now met the NOAA forecast for 2022.
The NOAA has predicted to be an above average season with 14 to 21 named tropical storms. This follows 2020′s record 30 named systems and 2021′s 21 named storms.
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