NHC tracking area of 'disturbed weather' off Florida with low chance for development
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a system off the southeastern coast of Florida that has a low chance for development.
The system appeared on NHC's tropical outlook map Sunday northeast of the Bahamas.
Over the last 50 years, there have been 19 storms that have formed before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The season officially begins June 1.
“Out of season” tropical cyclones primarily occur in May or December, according to NOAA.
History bears that out. Fourteen of those 19 "out of season" or "offseason" storms over the past 50 years formed in May. Another three were born in April.
But storms can form at any time, as Hurricane Alex proved on Jan. 12, 2016, when it became the third hurricane ever recorded in January in the Atlantic, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
Florida may not catch a break: AccuWeather issues 2023 hurricane season forecast, predicting 11-15 named storms
2 major hurricanes predicted in 2023: CSU predicting 13 named storms, 2 major hurricanes this season
Even if nothing does develop from the system in the western Atlantic, AccuWeather forecasters said residents in the southeastern U.S. can expect an extended period of stormy weather the last week of May and moving into the Memorial Day weekend.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. May 21:
What's out there and where is it?
A large area of disturbed weather extends a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas.
Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable later today and development of this system is not expected as it moves generally north-northeast over the southwestern Atlantic at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days.
How likely is it to strengthen?
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from any tropical systems.
"Regardless of whether disturbances in the pattern are linked to the tropics or not, impacts along the southern Atlantic coast could be particularly disruptive for outdoor activities in the days prior to and during the extended Memorial Day weekend," Johnson-Levine said.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared since conditions can and do change rapidly.
NHC also watching 2 tropical waves in Atlantic
Tropical wave 1: This wave is located right off the coast of Africa, west of Sierra Leone, southeast of Cabo Verde. It's moving west at about 11 mph.
Tropical wave 2: This wave is located southwest of Cabo Verde. It's also moving west at about 11 mph.
Here is a list of hurricanes, tropical storms, subtropical storms that formed before June 1
"While hurricane season doesn't officially begin until June 1, a tropical system in May is far from rare," AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Johnson-Levine said.
Here is a list of storms over the past 50 years that formed before the official start of hurricane season on June 1. The National Hurricane Center started naming subtropical storms in 2002. Prior to that time, they were assigned numbers. Before 1968, subtropical storms weren't even classified, but were sometimes called "Unnamed storm."
2021, Tropical Storm Ana, May 22-23
2020, Tropical Storm Arthur, May 16-19; Tropical Storm Bertha, May 27-28
2019, Subtropical Storm Andrea, May 20-21
2018, Tropical Storm Alberto, May 25-31,
2017, Tropical Storm Arlene, April 19-21
2016, Hurricane Alex, Jan. 12-15; Tropical Storm Bonnie, May 27-June 4
2015, Tropical Storm Ana, May 8-11,
2012, Tropical Storm Alberto, May 19-22; Tropical Storm Beryl, May 26-30
2008, Tropical Storm Arthur, May 31-June 1
2007, Subtropical Storm Andrea, May 9-11
2003, Tropical Storm Ana, April 20-24
1992, Subtropical storm April 21-24
1981, Tropical Storm Arlene, May 6-9
1978, Subtropical storm Jan. 18-23
1976, Subtropical Storm One, May 21-25
1972, Subtropical Storm Alfa, May 23-29
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropics watch: NHC tracking system off southeast coast of Florida
