NHC tracking Hurricane Lee, Tropical Storm Margot, 2 other systems. Where will Lee go?
The peak of hurricane season was Sunday, Sept. 10, and the tropics remain active.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking Hurricane Lee, Tropical Storm Margot and two other disturbances in the eastern Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Margot is very close to hurricane strength, with 70-mph winds, and is expected to become a hurricane in the central Atlantic later today.
Hurricane Lee remains the one residents along the U.S. east coast and Bermuda are keeping a eye on. Lee is a major hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.
Highlights from 11 a.m. advisory
Hurricane Lee is a large, Category 3 hurricane.
Hazardous surf and rip currents are expected at beaches across most of the U.S. east coast this week.
It's too soon to know what other impacts Lee might have along the Northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late this week and into the weekend. However, wind and rainfall hazards will likely extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size.
A major factor affecting Lee's future strength is the combination of how slow it's moving and cooler waters. The hurricane's large wind field and slow path is churning up cooler Atlantic waters already affected by Hurricanes Franklin and Idalia.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast this week as Lee grows in size, according to the Hurricane Center.
As Lee tracks northward in the coming days, impacts are expected in eastern New England and Canada, AccuWeather forecaster said..
Lee holds the title of the strongest hurricane to churn in the Atlantic during the 2023 season. Winds hit 165 mph Friday morning. Just 24 hours earlier, Lee was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds before it underwent rapid intensification.
Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical system's sustained winds increase by 35 mph or more in 24 hours. Lee more than doubled down that criteria, which is extremely rare, according to AccuWeather.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 11 a.m.:
Forecast path: Where is Hurricane Lee going?
The major hurricane will take a curved path around a large area of high pressure sitting over the central Atlantic, which guided the powerful storm north of the northern islands of the Caribbean Sunday.
Expect Lee to move northeast of the Bahamas, west of Bermuda and east of the southeastern United States into the first half of this week, said AccuWeather forecasters.
How could Hurricane Lee impact Florida?
Most spaghetti models keep Hurricane Lee well east of Florida as it takes a northward bend.
AccuWeather forecasters have given an all-clear from the standpoint of a direct hit from Florida to North Carolina.
That's good news for Florida and the U.S. east coast, although it is too soon yet to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee will have along the coast. That's especially true since the hurricane is not only expected to strengthen but slow down this week.
"Seas and surf will build to dangerous levels along the central and northern coast of Florida and expand northward through the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
The building surf will lead to frequent and strong rip currents, pounding waves, beach erosion and even coastal flooding at times of high tide.
Beach and surf conditions are forecast to become dangerous through this week, according to the National Weather Service Melbourne.
"A high risk of rip currents will persist at our Atlantic beaches, and increasing swells from distant Hurricane Lee will result in larger breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet by Wednesday evening through at least Friday or Saturday. At times of high tide, some beach erosion could begin to occur.
"Small craft operation will become hazardous in the open Atlantic waters and near inlets as seas build by the middle of this week," NWS forecasters said.
From midweek on, the exact track of Lee will determine the scope of direct and indirect impacts in the eastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada, according to AccuWeather.
How to escape rip current: Graphics show how rip currents endanger swimmers
Hurricane Lee: Forecast path and how strong is it?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 365 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands; 1,058 miles east of West Palm Beach
Maximum wind speed: 120 mph
Direction: northwest at 8 mph
At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Lee was located 365 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. If you're tracking the storm, it's near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 63.5 West.
Lee is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass near, but to the west, of Bermuda in a few days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph, with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.
The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 948 mb.
Hurricane Lee maximum sustained winds increase to 120 mph
Prediction and timing of winds:
12 hours: 125 mph
24 hours: 130 mph
36 hours: 125 mph
48 hours: 115 mph
60 hours: 110 mph
72 hours: 105 mph
96 hours: 90 mph
120 hours: 80 mph
A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical Storm Margot expected to become hurricane later today
Location: 1,245 miles northwest of Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph
Movement: north at 10 mph
At 11 a.m., , the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located 1,245 miles northwest of Cabo Verde Islands or near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 40.0 West.
Margot is moving toward the north near 10 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next several days.
Satellite estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds of Margot have increased to near 70 mph, with higher gusts. Margot is forecast to become a hurricane late today and could strengthen further over the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Margot
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Tropical wave: A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: medium, 60 percent.
Invest 97L: A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity well to the west of its center.
Development of this system is unlikely before it merges with a tropical wave to its east during the next couple of days.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC tracking Hurricane Lee. Forecast path, impact on Florida, US
