NHC tracking system off Southeast, 3 tropical waves
It may not develop into a tropical depression or storm, but a system off the Southeast coast of the U.S. is expected to bring dangerous conditions as we go into the Memorial Day weekend.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a non-tropical area of low pressure that is forecast to bring gusty winds, and dangerous surf and rip currents to portions of the Southeast late this week and into the holiday weekend. It's currently expected to move north and inland over the Carolinas this weekend.
Farther east, the Hurricane Center also is tracking three tropical waves that are all moving west across the Atlantic.
The Hurricane Center also is tracking three tropical waves in the Atlantic. Two are in the eastern Atlantic and a third is in the central Atlantic.
Florida may not catch a break: AccuWeather issues 2023 hurricane season forecast, predicting 11-15 named storms
WMO officially retires Ian name: There will never be another hurricane named Ian
Could a tropical system develop off US before official start of hurricane season?
A system of "disturbed weather" in the Atlantic stretches from North Florida to North Carolina. Although chances are low the system could develop into a tropical depression or storm, stormy conditions are expected into the Memorial Day weekend.
Drenching rain, severe thunderstorms and dangerous surf are forecast across the Southeast, according to AccuWeather.
If the system moves onshore quickly as expected, chances for tropical development drop.
"It sometimes takes two to three days for a complex of thunderstorms to develop into a tropical system," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. If the center stays offshore for more than a couple of days, then there will be a better chance of it evolving into a tropical depression or storm.
The first named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be Arlene.
What's out there and where are they?
Non-tropical area of low pressure: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern United States coast within the next day or two. The system appears unlikely to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone as it moves generally north and inland over the Carolinas this weekend.
Tropical wave 1: A far eastern tropical wave is located south of Cabo Verde. It's moving slowly to the west at 5 mph.
Tropical wave 2: Another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is located west southwest of Cabo Verde. It's moving west at 11 mph.
Tropical wave 3: The third tropical wave is located east of Grenada. It's moving west at 11 mph.
What are the chances for tropical development?
The non-tropical area of low pressure:
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
What's the forecast for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, tropical Atlantic?
Gulf of Mexico: Moderate to fresh winds over the Northeast Gulf waters will prevail through Saturday morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build to moderate through Saturday.
Caribbean Sea: Light to gentle winds are forecast for the central and western Caribbean today. A light increase in winds and seas are expected across the northwestern Caribbean through the end of the week.
Atlantic: The system of low pressure is forecast to strengthen and drift over the western Atlantic before moving north through Saturday night. Strong Northeast winds and Northeast swells are expected offshore Florida beginning tonight, spreading south to near Daytona Beach Friday through Saturday before the low moves north out of the area. Northeast gales are expected offshore northern Florida Friday night.
Who is likely to be impacted?
The system of low pressure off North Florida is expected to bring rain and thunderstorms to portions of Florida today through Friday.
Large swells are expected across Northeast Florida beginning tonight, spreading south to near Daytona Beach Friday and Saturday.
Cars, jellyfish and rip currents: How to stay safe on the beach for Memorial Day weekend
Florida beach hazards: Dealing with sandspurs, tar, jellyfish and other hazards of Florida beaches
Northeast gales are expected offshore northern Florida beginning Friday evening. Seas could build to near 15 feet Friday night. Winds and seas are forecast to diminish late Saturday into Sunday as the low moves north.
The worst conditions are expected along a swath from Georgia to the Carolinas. Sporadic power outages and urban flooding are possible, and some of the thunderstorms may pack strong wind gusts and even spin up a waterspout near the coastal waters, according to AccuWeather.
"Saturday may be the worst day of the three days of the holiday weekend along the Carolina and Georgia coasts," AccuWeather On-Air Meteorologist Kristina Shalhoup said.
Cars, jellyfish and rip currents: How to stay safe on the beach for Memorial Day weekend
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared since conditions can and do change rapidly.
Super Typhoon Mawar hits Guam as Category 4 storm
Super Typhoon Mawar hit Guam with 140-mph winds. More than 2 feet of rain fell on some sections of the island, according to the National Weather Service in Guam.
The worst of the storm hit the island Wednesday afternoon, knocking out power to most residents and businesses, and continued with strong winds into the night. Authorities warned residents to remain indoors as tornado-strength winds continued and flash-flooding was predicted.
Super Typhoon Mawar: Guam residents emerge to see 'major mess'
Forecasters had worried the storm would hit shore directly over the island, but it appeared to have made a gradual shift northward as it approached. The island is about 30 miles long and 12 miles at its widest point.
Guam is a U.S. territory in the Pacific Ocean home to about 170,000 Americans, about 6,000 miles west of Los Angeles.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
If you can't see any local weather warnings here, you'll need to open this story in a web browser.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look at our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Tropics watch: System off SE forecast to bring dangerous conditions
