nib holdings limited (ASX:NHF) shares fell 7.6% to AU$4.84 in the week since its latest half-year results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at AU$1.2b, although statutory earnings per share came in 16% below what analysts expected, at AU$0.13 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for nib holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering nib holdings, is for revenues of AU$2.47b in 2020, which would reflect a measurable 3.0% reduction in nib holdings's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 13% to AU$0.25 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$2.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.26 in 2020. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The average analyst price target fell 6.5% to AU$5.38, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic nib holdings analyst has a price target of AU$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$4.90. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way to assess these estimates is by comparing them to past performance, and seeing whether analysts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the market. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 3.0% a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.3% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the market suggest that market revenues are forecast to decline -0.2% next year. The forecasts do look bullish for nib holdings, since they're expecting it to grow faster than the market.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern with the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for nib holdings. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations. Our data also indicates that nib holdings's revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Analysts also downgraded their price target, suggesting that the latest news has led analysts to become more pessimistic about the intrinsic value of the business.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have forecasts for nib holdings going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of nib holdings's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.