Is Nico Iamaleava a sure thing for Tennessee football? Here's how many 5-star QBs pan out

Tennessee football got a commitment from Nico Iamaleava in hopes of signing its first five-star quarterback in 20 years.

In 2002, the Vols signed five-star quarterback James Banks, who didn’t pan out and transferred to Carson-Newman. In 2000, they signed five-star quarterback Casey Clausen, who finished behind only Peyton Manning in career passing yards.

Five-star quarterbacks are usually all-or-nothing performers for the school that signs them.

Recent history shows they either become a Heisman Trophy candidate or transfer to another school after making minimal impact. For every Bryce Young and Trevor Lawrence, there’s a Blake Barnett and Hunter Johnson.

That makes Iamaleava’s future with the Vols both exciting and uncertain.

How many five-star quarterbacks reached potential?

In the 10 signing classes from 2011-20, there were 22 five-star quarterbacks.

Nine of them became star players at the school that signed them – Young (Alabama), Lawrence (Clemson), Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama), Jameis Winston (Florida State), Braxton Miller (Ohio State), Josh Rosen (UCLA), Christian Hackenberg (Penn State), Bo Nix (Auburn) and Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma).

Three more excelled after transferring to another Power Five school, including Kyler Murray (Texas A&M to Oklahoma), Justin Fields (Georgia to Ohio State) and Shea Patterson (Ole Miss to Michigan).

That’s 12 quarterbacks who at least made an all-conference team at the Power Five level. They included three Heisman Trophy winners and two runners-up.

It indicates that there’s about a 50% chance of a five-star quarterback reaching his potential. Time will tell if Iamaleava is in that group, but UT’s high-octane offense and coach Josh Heupel’s good track record with quarterbacks gives him a good shot.

Most five-star quarterbacks transfer to another school

But there are two sides to the coin when it comes to judging five-star quarterbacks.

Thirteen of the 22 transferred to another school. Nix and Rattler at least played well before going elsewhere. Murray and Fields thrived only at their second school.

Patterson and Jacob Eason (Georgia to Washington) played well after transferring.

Gunner Kiel (Notre Dame to Cincinnati) and Jeff Driskel (Florida to Louisiana Tech) had to drop to the Group of Five level to make an impact.

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And the rest didn’t make a sizable impact at their first school or second, including Barnett (Alabama to Arizona State to South Florida), Johnson (Clemson to Northwestern), Kyle Allen (Texas A&M to Houston), J.T. Daniels (Southern Cal to Georgia) and Max Browne (Southern Cal to Pittsburgh).

But those quarterbacks switched schools before the transfer portal made it easy, meaning Iamaleava will arrive at UT when five-star quarterbacks are expected to play sooner than later.

The chances of Iamaleava playing his entire career at UT probably will depend on a potential competition with four-star quarterback Tayven Jackson, who debuts in UT spring practice this week as a 2022 early enrollee.

Will Iamaleava and Arch Manning hit or miss?

There are few exceptions to the all-or-nothing history of five-star quarterbacks. They usually excel at the school that signed them or they leave.

Davis Mills, a five-star signee in 2017, had a solid career at Stanford. He started his final two seasons and earned All-Pac-12 honorable mention.

D.J. Uiagalelei, five-star signee in 2020, started as a sophomore at Clemson last season. He passed for 2,246 yards and nine TDs, but it’s too early to call him a hit or miss.

Likewise, it could take multiple years to determine whether Iamaleava plays up to his five-star stature. There are five quarterbacks in his 2023 class with a five-star rating.

Arch Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, is considering Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and others. Malachi Nelson is committed to USC. Dante Moore is considering LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame and Penn State. Jaden Rashada is looking at Oklahoma, Penn State, UCLA, Washington, Arkansas and Auburn.

Recent history indicates two of them could be in the Heisman Trophy race in future seasons and three of them will transfer to another school.

How 5-star quarterbacks fared over 10 years (2011-20)

2011 signing class

Jeff Driskel, Florida: Transferred to Louisiana Tech; C-USA Newcomer of Year.

Braxton Miller, Ohio State: Two-time Big Ten Player of Year; fifth in Heisman Trophy voting.

2012

Jameis Winston, Florida State: Heisman winner, national champion, No. 1 NFL draft pick.

Gunner Kiel, Notre Dame: Transferred to Cincinnati; two-year starter.

2013

Max Browne, USC: Transferred to Pitt; injury ended career after five starts.

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: Big Ten Freshman of Year, school’s all-time passer.

2014

Kyle Allen, Texas A&M: Started one season; transferred to Houston; mostly backup.

2015

Josh Rosen, UCLA: Pac-12 Freshman of Year, All-Pac-12, first-round pick.

Blake Barnett, Alabama: Transferred to Arizona State, then South Florida.

Kyler Murray, Texas A&M: Transferred to Oklahoma; Heisman winner, No. 1 pick.

2016

Shea Patterson, Ole Miss: Transferred to Michigan; All-Big Ten.

Jacob Eason, Georgia: Transferred to Washington; started one year at each school.

2017

Davis Mills, Stanford: Solid college career, third-round pick.

Hunter Johnson, Clemson: Backup; transferred to Northwestern, then back to Clemson.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama: Heisman runner-up, national champion, first-round pick.

2018

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson: Heisman runner-up, national champion, No. 1 pick.

Justin Fields, Georgia: Transferred to Ohio State; All-American, first-round pick.

J.T. Daniels, USC: Injury plagued part-time starter; transferred to Georgia.

2019

Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma: All-Big 12 in 2020; transferred to South Carolina.

Bo Nix, Auburn: Three-year starter, SEC Freshman of Year; transferred to Oregon.

2020

Bryce Young, Alabama: Heisman Trophy winner, national champion.

D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson: Passed for 2,246 yards as 2021 starter.

Reach Adam Sparks at adam.sparks@knoxnews.com and on Twitter @AdamSparks.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Is quarterback Nico Iamaleava a sure thing for Tennessee football?