Nicola Sturgeon's target of SNP Holyrood majority on a 'knife-edge'

Nicola Sturgeon's target of winning an SNP majority in Thursday's Holyrood election is on a "knife edge", Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader, has said, as he and Ruth Davidson urged Unionists not to split their votes.

Writing for The Telegraph, Mr Ross said piece that the SNP majority was a "very real threat" that Ms Sturgeon would use to push for another referendum, including a possible "wildcat" vote if the Prime Minister refuses her the legal powers. (Read the full article below.)

He warned this prospect would be "devastating" as Scotland struggles to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and urged Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters to tactically vote for his party to prevent this happening.

Mr Ross said the prospect of the Unionist vote splitting between the three pro-UK parties was "serious" and "could be enough to open the door to pro-referendum parties".

His message was echoed by Ms Davidson, who said the election would come down to “razor-thin margins” and just a few votes for the Tories on the regional list ballot paper could make the difference.

Their fears appeared to be borne out by two of three recent opinion polls published, which showed Ms Sturgeon is on course for a majority of four or five seats.

A YouGov survey for The Times said the SNP would win 68 out of 129 seats, while the Scottish Conservatives would comfortably hold on to second place with 26 MSPs, down five from 2016.

Labour would win only 17 seats, down seven, the Liberal Democrats four, down one, and Alex Salmond’s Alba Party one. This would mean almost two-thirds of the MSPs elected would support leaving the UK.

The SNP is expected to win the vast majority of Holyrood's constituency seats, which use the same first-past-the-post system used in Westminster elections.

The Tories and Labour are mainly relying on regional list votes on a second ballot paper, which allocate seats to parties using a complicated form of proportional representation.

But an Opinium survey for Sky News found that barely a quarter (28 per cent) of Scots want another referendum in the next two years, in line with Ms Sturgeon's preferred timetable.

Only 42 per cent supported another separation vote taking place within the five years of the next parliament, a drop of seven points since last month. This compared with 50 per cent who said it should be staged later or not at all.

Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, and former Prime Minister Gordon Brown will on Wednesday hold an eve-of-poll rally in Glasgow.

Ms Sturgeon plans to embark on a dash across Scotland in the final 24 hours of campaigning, visiting key marginal constituencies to argue that voters should back the SNP to "secure strong, experienced leadership to keep Scotland safe at this critical time."

But she also pledged that "when the Covid crisis is over" to stage a referendum on breaking up the UK. She wants to stage the vote by the end of 2023, when the country is still recovering from the pandemic.

Mr Ross said: "Poll after poll shows the result of this election is balanced on a knife-edge. An SNP majority is a very real threat – and we know it would use it to push for another referendum.

"It's been very clear that it will hold an illegal, wildcat referendum, no matter what the UK Government says."

In a direct appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically for the Tories on the list, he said: "Let’s seize the chance to stop the SNP from wrecking Scotland’s recovery."

Ms Sturgeon said: "By giving both votes to the SNP tomorrow people will get experienced leadership, a serious programme for government, and when the Covid crisis is over, the right to decide whether Scotland should be an independent country.”

Keep the pro-UK vote united and use your peach ballot wisely, says Douglas Ross

Poll after poll shows the result of this election is balanced on a knife-edge. An SNP majority is a very real threat – and we know it would use it to push for another referendum.

It's been very clear that it will hold an illegal, wildcat referendum, no matter what the UK Government says. I don’t need to tell you just how devastating another divisive referendum would be, especially right now, in the middle of a health and economic crisis.

That’s why it’s so important that you use your peach party list vote for the Scottish Conservatives on Thursday. That is the biggest tactical vote you can cast in this election. Your vote on the peach ballot will decide if the SNP win that majority or not.

It will decide if we fully focus on Scotland’s recovery, or if the SNP drag all the focus onto indyref2.

In 2016, the Scottish Conservatives won most of our seats on that regional list. Those seats helped us to stop an SNP majority and stopped it holding another referendum these last five years.

In this election, poll after poll shows that only the Scottish Conservatives can stop an SNP majority again.

Eight polls this week show the Scottish Conservatives in clear second place, on the cusp of preventing Nicola Sturgeon from winning the majority she craves.

On Thursday, if pro-UK voters come together and unite using their peach ballots, all the evidence shows that we can stop the SNP again, just like we did last time and just like the polls show.

No matter how you vote on the constituency, and I hope it is for my party, I am appealing to everyone to unite and use their peach list votes for the Scottish Conservatives. A vote for any other party risks helping the SNP and the nationalists.

Labour no longer has the strength to challenge. Since March, there have been close to 30 polls. Not one shows Labour stopping an SNP majority.

Scotland’s leading polling expert, Prof John Curtice, said this week that one in seven Labour voters were going to lend their peach party list vote to the Scottish Conservatives. He is predicting Labour will fall to just 20 seats – and another recent poll confirmed the same.

Other smaller parties, no matter their stated goals or their good intentions, do not have any chance at stopping the SNP either. Smaller parties won’t win enough votes to gain seats. However, they could split the pro-UK vote enough to let in the SNP or another nationalist party.

In the end, a vote for a smaller party would only help Nicola Sturgeon. It would benefit the separatists.

The risk of splitting the pro-UK vote is serious. If it splits even a little, even by just a few votes, it could be enough to open the door to pro-referendum parties. That would be unthinkable when we are all seeking the same thing: to stop the SNP and stop another referendum.

So I am asking that you please keep the pro-UK vote united by using your peach ballot for the Scottish Conservatives. If we are divided, Nicola Sturgeon will seize the chance to divide us even more.

But as every supporter of the Union knows, if we are united, we are stronger. Together, we can get the country 100 per cent focussed on rebuilding our economy and protecting jobs.

On Thursday, let’s seize the chance to stop the SNP from wrecking Scotland’s recovery. Use your peach party list vote for the Scottish Conservatives and let’s get on with rebuilding Scotland.

Douglas Ross in the Scottish Conservative leader