Nikki Haley’s Foreign Policy Savvy Props Up Her Long-Shot Presidential Bid

Laura Davison, Amanda Gordon and Christian Hall
·7 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Rising international tensions are giving new life to Republican Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign — but so far it hasn’t been enough to vault her past her onetime boss, Donald Trump.

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Haley’s resume makes her the sort of candidate that the GOP establishment has historically prized. The ex-Trump administration United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor is a predictable conservative with a warm, steady personal style worlds away from the former president’s erratic leadership.

Support for Haley, 51, had been growing since her strong showings in the first two Republican debates, pushing her into second place in New Hampshire and South Carolina and propelling her to within striking distance in Iowa, where Florida Governor Ron DeSantis – another Southern governor once seen as the most potent threat to Trump – has struggled to generate momentum. Polling also shows Haley leading President Joe Biden in head-to-head matchups.

In the nearly three weeks since the Hamas attacks in Israel, Haley has continued to pick up support, thanks to her experience with international issues, a rarity among the current GOP candidates. Haley said the crisis highlights why the US needs to have a strong presence on the world stage and financially support allies, including Israel and war-torn Ukraine.

“She has the best international experience of the candidates,” said Jill Gustin, a 70-year-old Republican who works in real estate in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. “We’re a global village, and the world’s a mess. We need somebody who has the education, the foresight and hopefully the intellect to deal with world issues.”

Haley’s foreign policy bona fides notwithstanding, Trump still leads the field by an average of 46.5 percentage points nationally and by more than 30 points in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Trump has divided the Republican Party by appealing to voters who prefer that the US take a smaller role in global affairs following the country’s decades-long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Haley has sought to show she is engaged with how tension abroad reverberates domestically.

On Thursday, Haley posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that she would more forcefully respond to antisemitism in the US, including on college campuses, threatening to pull schools’ federal funding if they fail to combat “antisemitism in all of its forms.”

“Nikki is emerging as the candidate with the toughness and character needed to keep Americans safe and put the dysfunction behind us,” Haley campaign spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said.

As UN ambassador, Haley was a strong advocate for Israel in a forum where it’s often isolated and denounced for its treatment of Palestinians. She helped spearhead US withdrawal from the UN Human Rights Council, calling the group “hypocritical and self-serving,” and was hawkish on Iran, declaring in 2017 that the “fight against Iranian aggression is the world’s fight.”

Haley, who is of Indian descent, draws support from voters who have struggled to find a home in the Republican party — moderates, women, people seeking a Trump alternative and those who say they have voted for Democrats in the recent past. Yet she could face an uphill climb with voters reluctant to support a woman of color, according to some GOP insiders.

There are Republicans who “don’t really love the idea of having more minorities, more women, in positions of power and authority,” GOP strategist Liz Mair said. “They sort of feel that the traditional position that older White guys have in American society is kind of waning and lapsing.”

Courting Donors

As she attempts to win over Trump voters, Haley is also trying to convince donors that she has the best chance to break the former president’s hold on the party and beat Biden next November.

Haley had her most successful fundraising quarter ever from July through September — raking in more than $11 million — and her campaign has more cash on hand for the primary — $9.1 million — than any candidate except Trump, who has $36 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Amassing a larger war chest could better position her to take on Trump and push other candidates out of the race.

“My primary motivation is we’ve got to get rid of Trump, we’ve got to get him out of the Republican party,” Dan Lufkin, a co-founder of investment bank Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, said in an interview.

Lufkin, 92, started donating to Haley-affiliated political groups in 2021. Since then, he and his wife, Adrienne, have given $83,900 to Haley’s political operation, including her campaign and several political action committees, according to federal records. Lufkin said he has been trying to rally other Republican donors around Haley.

“If you stay on the sidelines much longer you’ll be facing a ballot ticket of Biden and Trump,” Lufkin said. “I’m finding more response to Nikki now as a viable candidate.”

Some well-known donors, including Citadel’s Ken Griffin, Blackstone Group Inc.’s Steve Schwarzman and Miriam Adelson, have been sitting out the GOP presidential race so far. However, Griffin said at an investment conference in New York this week that Haley had “the experience to be in the Oval Office” and is “one to really watch.”

Read more: Billionaires Who Love DeSantis Demur as He Turns Florida Redder

Earlier this month, Haley appeared at a Park City, Utah, confab hosted by Senator Mitt Romney, the subject of a new biography that chronicles his disillusion with Trump’s GOP. There, Haley urged 250 longtime Romney backers to get in the race, arguing that they would regret not supporting a candidate that could win the general election, according to a person in attendance who asked to remain anonymous to discuss a private event.

“I have not been this excited about a candidate really in years,” said Simone Levinson, 57, an independent who served on commissions on spending and judicial nominations under New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and moved to Florida in 2020. “It’s because of her record, not her rhetoric, and the results she’s accomplished with her experience.”

Haley’s staunch support for Israel is important to Levinson, who is involved in several efforts to combat antisemitism. She’s hosted four events for Haley since 2021, and is planning another in November.

Greater Diversity

To close the double-digit polling gap with Trump, Haley also needs to woo voters wary of her positions on issues like abortion. Haley has been unwilling to promise an abortion ban she says doesn’t have a realistic chance of passing in Washington. Such views have alienated some hardline conservatives.

“There are a lot of people in this party that like Nikki Haley, but there are also a lot of people who absolutely despise her,” said Nick Babb, 27, of Laurens, South Carolina, a DeSantis supporter who participates in his local Young Republicans chapter.

At the same time, Haley, the only woman among the top GOP candidates, has leaned into her role as a mother and military spouse in stump speeches and debates. That stands in contrast with other women in politics who have shied away from discussing gender.

The 2024 Republican primary field is the most diverse ever with Haley, Tim Scott, a Black man, and Vivek Ramaswamy, also the child of immigrants from India. The share of voters supporting Republicans has also become more diverse, according to the Pew Research Center, which found 88% of GOP voters in 2016 were White, compared with 85% in 2022. Pew also found that Trump voters are significantly more likely to say that immigrants are beneficial to American society, jumping to 32% in 2020 from 19% in 2016.

“This is not your daddy’s Barry Goldwater Republican Party anymore,” said Katon Dawson, a Haley supporter and former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party. “It’s bigger. It’s more diverse.”

--With assistance from Stephanie Lai, Hadriana Lowenkron, Katherine Burton and Gregory Korte.

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