Nikki Haley says she’s not going anywhere. These Republicans don’t buy it.

Nikki Haley has declared she’s “not going anywhere” in the 2024 Republican presidential primary – and she’s campaigning with the ferocity of a candidate girding for a longer fight than many in the political world had expected just a few weeks ago.

The former South Carolina governor has intensified her attacks on Donald Trump since losing the New Hampshire primary, calling him “unhinged” and “toxic” while leaning harder into her argument that his cognitive decline will prohibit him from winning another general election. She’s collecting millions of dollars at fundraisers across the country and even beginning to look beyond her home state primary, holding a campaign event in southern California on Wednesday, unveiling leadership teams in Massachusetts, Utah and Washington and placing staff in Texas.

Even the political gambling markets forecast Haley carrying on.

But with the Palmetto State contest still two and a half weeks away, a cadre of Republicans aren’t betting that Haley will persist, especially if she finds herself on the cusp of being clobbered in South Carolina on Feb. 24.

“A lot of people are somewhat skeptical she’ll run all the way through,” said Mark Sanford, the former South Carolina governor who helped propel an underdog Haley to the governorship 14 years ago. “Most folks I talk to think it’d hurt her if she got trounced in her home state.”

Mick Mulvaney, the former South Carolina congressman and Trump chief of staff, agreed that a substantial loss at home could blotch Haley’s indelible reputation as the 2024 Republican runner-up if she chooses to run again four years from now.

“If she loses by 20-plus that shows dramatic weakness and the voters who know her best might be looking for someone else in 2028,” Mulvaney conveyed in a text message exchange.

Trump’s lead in South Carolina over Haley was measured at 26 points last week, according to a Monmouth University-Washington Post survey. Nationally, his head-to-head advantage over her in the GOP primary is a staggering 51 points, according to CNN. In Tuesday’s Nevada primary, in which Trump did not appear on the ballot, Haley came in behind “none of these candidates” by more than 30 points.

It’s unsurprising that Trump’s most ardent allies have called on Haley to exit the race. But some of them are particularly perplexed that she’d soldier on given the sheer size of the deficit she’s facing, virtually everywhere.

“She needs to figure out her endgame. She is on the verge of being embarrassed in her home state. There isn’t a state on the upcoming primary calendar that she can win,” said Marc Lotter, a communications aide to Trump’s 2020 campaign. “Dropping out is the only way for Nikki Haley to avoid another L on her record and maintain any glimmer of hope for a future in Republican politics.”

Asked how the Haley campaign is quantifying a defeat in South Carolina, spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas reiterated the core of the campaign’s message.

“The reality is 70% of Americans don’t want to see a Biden-Trump rematch,” Perez-Cubas said. “We need a new generational leader who can work eight years to get our country back on track.

Why she could get out

At just 52, a losing campaign almost certainly wouldn’t be her last.

If there was one surprise of this sleepy presidential primary season, it’s that Haley was the undervalued stock compared to the much-hyped candidacy of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. She overperformed on most metrics, proving herself to be a sterling debater, a crisp messenger and an aggressive fundraiser.

The most compelling rationale for exiting the race sooner is to avoid the continuation of categorical defeat, especially at the hands of the voters who know her best.

“It’s a balance driven by what’s her long-term goal,” said Scott Reed, a veteran Republican operative who directed Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign, “I don’t think she’s near in danger of damaging herself yet – but these next [few] weeks is like a lifetime. It’s not [a decision] you just make. It has to build in you. You feel the media, you read it.”

Haley could choose to sunset her campaign like Marco Rubio did four years ago, immediately after he lost his home state of Florida to Trump by 19 points. But even Rubio had won three prior contests before his mid-March exit.

Despite Haley’s pledge to go on to Super Tuesday – featuring 16 contests on March 5 – Sen. Ted Cruz, who ended his 2016 bid against Trump in early May of that year, predicted that Haley would “drop out 18 hours after South Carolina.”

“After that, you cannot go on,” Cruz told Fox News’ Laura Ingraham, referencing prospects of a double-digit defeat.

Having raised $16 million in January, a dearth of resources isn’t what will stop Haley, at least in the near-term. But the dollars she’s banking in New York, California and Texas don’t expire, leading some to think she’s padding a war chest for a future federal run.

Sanford said one dialed-in Republican he spoke to predicted she would pull the plug following a high-dollar fundraiser in Houston scheduled for next week, in which platinum sponsors fork over $33,000 per couple.

“There’s always the tension between the billionaire club that wants you to keep going and your political capital,” Sanford said.

The case(s) to stay in

Yet there are Haley skeptics who see advantages to remaining in the race through at least March.

First, there is the wildcard of Trump’s court cases.

Tuesday’s federal appeals court ruling that a former president does not hold immunity from being prosecuted means Trump’s trial on charges he attempted to overturn the 2020 election could still proceed as early as this spring.

The New York-based trial featuring hush money payments to adult star Stormy Daniels is set to begin March 25.

Haley recently mentioned both on CNN – “Those court cases have just started. He’s got two in March and they go on for the rest of the year.” – and she could be calculating that a conviction of the former president might prompt ample second-guessing among Republicans about formally crowning a felon as their nominee.

Outside of what many see as the “Hail Mary” scenario, there’s also the long-term investment strategy.

As an official candidate, Haley can continue to schmooze with well-heeled donors across the country, log a legion of Fox News TV hits to increase her national visibility and even stop by Saturday Night Live to punch into mainstream culture. The woman who once vowed never to run against Trump would instead secure her place in history as the last female standing with the chutzpah to challenge the most dominant force in her party.

Kyle Sweetser, a centrist Republican from Mobile, Alabama, who voted for Trump in 2020 said he wants Haley to stay in the race regardless of the towering odds against ultimate success.

“If she sticks to it, if she has the courage to – I think it’ll make her more popular in the end,” Sweetser said. “And I think that’s the kind of person we need in the GOP, with the courage to tell people what they need to hear, instead of what they want to hear. … It’s going to help them learn what they’re going to have to fight against. Trump, to me, is going to get beat badly. I don’t even feel Democrats are trying yet.”

The most effective way for Haley to quiet doubters is to defeat Trump at the ballot box somewhere.

John DeWorken, a Greenville councilman and one of the hosts of a Feb. 19 fundraiser there, expects a late polling surge in South Carolina will provide Haley enough encouragement to continue.

“I don’t see her getting out at all. She’s going to do well in South Carolina,” he said.

‘I can’t deal’: Haley voters signal they won’t vote for Trump against Biden