NJ legal weed: 4 predictions for 2024, from better prices to home grow
If the history of legal weed in New Jersey is a book, we're about to hit the climax.
The first chapter was the birth of the medical marijuana program, handed over to a governor who didn't want it. The second chapter was the push for an eventual legalization of recreational marijuana and, in the third chapter, the creation of an actual cannabis market in the Garden State.
Now, New Jersey is sitting at the start of its next chapter: The transition of the cannabis industry from an upstart, fledgling market into a booming one.
As New Jersey enters its second full year of legal weed, it sits at the precipice of significant change. New dispensaries opened at a rate of more than one per week, as customers spent nearly $600 million on legal weed in the first nine months alone.
And experts believe the market hasn't even hit its groove yet.
With that in mind, here are four predictions for the New Jersey cannabis landscape in the coming year.
1. New Jersey will soon be home to more than 100 dispensaries.
This isn’t even a bold prediction.
New Jersey will close out its first full year of adult use cannabis sales with 90 dispensaries, all but 10 of which are licensed to sell to any adult over 21 years old, and the New Jersey Cannabis Regulatory Commission has already issued operating permits to two more dispensaries expected to open in January.
It's been a year of remarkable growth, at least when it comes to actual brick-and-mortar dispensary locations. There were only 23 medical marijuana dispensaries open when recreational sales began in April 2022, and only 25 dispensaries of any kind one year ago.
Don’t be surprised if, by this time next year, the number of dispensaries in New Jersey has doubled. More than 150 businesses already have annual licenses from the CRC, with nearly 800 more holding conditional licenses, which require further approvals.
And yet, there’s still room to grow.
There are more than 500 licensed dispensaries in Massachusetts, which began recreational sales in 2018. Even Maryland, where the first legal weed sales began just six months ago, has 96 dispensaries.
The reality is that the New Jersey cannabis industry is still reeling from strict regulation during former Gov. Chris Christie’s administration that significantly slowed down growth, as well as a lawsuit by losing medical marijuana applicants that held up approval for two years (only six medical marijuana dispensaries were open when Gov. Phil Murphy took office in January 2018).
Many states begin recreational sales after years of a robust medical marijuana market. New Jersey never had that kind of runway: Amid political and industry pressures, New Jersey regulators dove headfirst into recreational marijuana while the medical marijuana market was still in its adolescence.
The result? There may be a whole lot of places to buy legal weed, but there aren’t that many places growing it or processing it.
At least, not yet.
NJ legal weed: Find your nearest dispensary for recreational, medical marijuana
2. New cannabis cultivators and manufacturers open a new chapter for NJ legal weed
If you’ve been to more than one New Jersey dispensary, you know the drill: While each store might look a little different, they’re largely selling the same products – and often at the same (or a similar) price.
It’s not hard to figure out why: Until this year, only 11 companies had licenses to cultivate and manufacture adult-use cannabis in New Jersey.
So here’s the prediction: By this time next year, New Jersey cannabis consumers will see double the number of cannabis products on the market (and that’s not including branding partnerships, like TerrAscend growing and manufacturing Cookies-branded products).
There’s reason for my optimism.
The market is finally starting to see new products, like Fernway’s vape cartridges and Bango Distribution’s Elyon cannabis flower. HillviewMed’s medicinal products hit shelves this year and the company has already received a license to manufacture recreational products.
Some of the new companies are independent, New Jersey-based businesses, like Brute’s Roots – which opened its Egg Harbor dispensary, began growing its own cannabis in Winslow and won approval to sell its homegrown cannabis for both medical marijuana patients and adult-use customers in the span of 12 months.
Now, Brute’s Roots’ “Goodfather” strain is available at its Egg Harbor dispensary and a handful of others across the state.
Even more are on the way. In the last few months, the CRC has issued another 11 operating permits to cultivators and manufacturers, on top of the nearly 150 annual licenses already issued to new businesses.
Why should the average cannabis consumer care about this?
New cultivators and manufacturers mean new products – and those without an attached dispensary could enter into partnerships with specific dispensaries, bringing much-needed competition into the cannabis market.
And the easiest way to inspire competition is with price.
3. NJ legal weed prices will fall to a respectable – but maybe not “cheap” – level
The cannabis market follows the same basic rules as any other, notably the age-old concept of supply and demand.
In May 2022, adult-use cannabis cost an average of $455.54 per ounce ($16.27 per gram), according to CRC data. Today, the average ounce costs $366 ($12.49 per gram), a 20% price drop over 18 months.
While it’s still among the most expensive legal weed in the country, I don’t think that will last much longer.
Prediction time: By 2025, legal weed prices will drop to a far more affordable level. I think the average price for an eighth-ounce will sit eerily similar to what’s currently the low point — set by Brute’s Roots, which sells its Goodfather cannabis at a handful of dispensaries for $27 per eighth.
While it’s unreasonable to expect one product offering could change the entire market, the changes in pricing these last few months have been notable.
NJ dispensary: We scoured 117 menus for the cheapest marijuana. Here's what we found.
In November, the cheapest eighth-ounce at Curaleaf’s three New Jersey dispensaries cost $50 before taxes. One month later, it was just $34.
Despite the price drop, I wouldn’t expect New Jersey legal weed to truly hit “cheap” levels, like consumers have seen in states like Michigan and Oregon, where an oversupply of cannabis has led to precipitous price drops. Huge companies, like Curaleaf, have completely pulled out of entire states’ markets amid the changes.
For example, Ascend in Rochelle Park is currently charging $55 ($50 on sale) for an eighth-ounce of its house brand, Ozone – specifically, the “Banana Daddy” strain. But Ascend’s dispensary in Ann Arbor, Michigan, the same strain sells for just $15 per eighth-ounce.
I don’t think that level of change is happening in New Jersey anytime soon. But we’re already starting to see what happens when competition starts heating up.
4. New Jersey will finally pass a home grow law.
Here’s the boldest prediction of this entire list: In 2024, New Jersey will finally adopt a law allowing medical marijuana patients the right to grow cannabis at home.
I don’t think the Legislature will adopt a law allowing recreational customers to grow at home. Senate President Nick Scutari, D-Union, has long argued that allowing home grow would allow the black market to flourish and kneecap the state’s legal cannabis operators.
But it’s baffling that New Jersey has continued to stick it out as the only state that doesn’t allow its medical marijuana patients to grow cannabis at home. I think that’s where home grow finally happens, likely with a tight cap – such as six plants per household.
It would be a huge victory for medical marijuana patient advocates who have long sought home grow as a way to help patients unable to visit a dispensary often and who face significant financial burdens, with health insurance providers declining coverage for cannabis products.
More: NJ legal weed: Home grow is a no-go, but advocates push to change that
A patient can purchase a clone or a pack of cannabis seeds for the price of an eighth-ounce and grow as much medicine as they need, a far cheaper option than more than $1,000 per month, if a patient purchases their full allotment of flower from a dispensary.
So why do I think it’ll finally happen this year?
The state’s medical marijuana patient rolls are plummeting – the 91,000 on the rolls as of Dec. 15 are a 20% drop from a year ago and nearly 30% since recreational sales began. With new adult-use dispensaries opening virtually every week and minimal cannabis taxes, there’s little reason for someone to even register as a patient in the first place.
“Many patients face barriers to accessing treatment due to costs, like paying out of pocket for doctor’s visits and the cost of cannabis," CRC Executive Director Jeff Brown said in a statement earlier this month. "NJ-CRC is doing everything in our power to eliminate as many barriers as possible to ensure those who can benefit from cannabis treatment remain in the program.”
And if the Legislature is seriously considering drastic changes to the Cannabis Regulatory Commission, as NJ Advance Media has reported, legislators might need to find something to hang their hat on as proof that they’re not simply caving to pressure from billion-dollar cannabis corporations.
Gov. Phil Murphy, who had been noncommittal in the past, finally offered some support in a recent Ask the Governor call-in show on News 12 New Jersey.
“I’m very much open-minded to this. I would bet, if I were a betting man, that down the road that’s exactly where this would land,” Murphy said on Nov. 28. “Once the industry is up on its feet, and it is getting there … I think at some point that’s a consideration we’ll get back on the table.”
Mike Davis has spent the last decade covering New Jersey local news, marijuana legalization, transportation and a little bit of everything else. He's won a few awards that make his parents very proud. Contact him at mdavis@gannettnj.com or @byMikeDavis on Twitter.
This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: NJ dispensary boom continues and other 2024 legal weed predictions
