No. 1 Penn State wrestling set to take on No. 3 Nebraska. See our bout-by-bout predictions

The postseason is almost here for Penn State’s wrestling team.

The Nittany Lions host Nebraska on Sunday for their final Big Ten dual of the year. With a win, Penn State will cap off a perfect conference record again and earn the team dual title.

The match will showcase nine matchups with ranked wrestlers squaring off, seven bouts alone with top-15 wrestlers toeing the line.

Here’s a look at how we think it could play out Sunday afternoon:

125 pounds: No. 6 Braeden Davis (15-1) vs. No. 12 Caleb Smith (17-5)

Nate Cobler: Davis suffered his first loss of the season last Friday against Iowa’s Drake Ayala, he responded by beating Rutgers’ Dean Peterson. Should he stay on that winning way, it could be a look at how things could go down in the postseason. When it comes to postseason wrestling, a wrestler has to have a short-term memory, especially after a loss. If they don’t, it very easy for them to lose another and be eliminated. Smith comes into this one on a win against Michigan’s Michael DeAugustino, who Davis beat earlier this year too. Prediction: Davis by decision.

Jon Sauber: Davis finally dropped his first bout of the season against Iowa after some close calls before that. He’s been the best 125-pounder at Penn State in a while, but the standard is now higher after he started the season so well. A win against Smith would do him well as the Nittany Lions get ready to head into the postseason, with only this dual and the dual against Edinboro remaining. Smith is not an easy matchup, with wins over Michigan’s Michael DeAugustino and Purdue’s Matt Ramos, but he’s 3-3 in his last six bouts, with the DeAugustino win standing out as the high point in that stretch. Prediction: Davis by decision.

133 pounds: No. 11 Aaron Nagao (9-4) vs. No. 17 Jacob Van Dee (16-6)

Cobler: The saying goes “no rest for the weary,” and Nagao is certainly in that as he’ll have his fourth straight — fifth overall — ranked matchup with Van Dee. Ranked matchups haven’t been friendly to Nagao either, as he sports a 1-3 record with his most recent loss coming to Rutgers’ Dylan Shawver in sudden victory. Van Dee, who went to Cathedral Prep in Erie, is riding high as he took down Michigan’s Dylan Ragusin — who beat Nagao — last week in a match that helped the Cornhuskers rout the Wolverines. Prediction: Van Dee by decision.

Sauber: Nagao has struggled a bit of late but still has an opportunity to peak at the right time, much as he did last year when he was at Minnesota. Van Dee has been good but has also been inconsistent for the Cornhuskers this season. Nagao is still the better wrestler here and the work he can do on top should lead to him getting back on track after losing to Rutgers’ Dylan Shawver in his last matchup. Prediction: Nagao by decision.

141 pounds: No. 1 Beau Bartlett (16-0) vs. No. 7 Brocky Hardy (14-5)

Cobler: These two have a history. Hardy topped Bartlett last year in the Big Ten semifinals, 7-3. Hardy went on to lose to Iowa’s Real Woods in the finals as Bartlett rebounded to finish third. But Bartlett is on a different level this year and it has been confirmed with victories over Woods, who was No. 1 at that time, and Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez, who was No. 3 at the time. Hardy has lost to Woods (8-2, Jan. 12) and Mendez (11-3, Dec. 1) this year. Prediction: Bartlett by decision.

Sauber: Bartlett has been on a roll this season and has taken care of business in all of his difficult tests. He’s already defeated Iowa’s Real Woods, Michigan’s Sergio Lemley and Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez and handed his teammate Tyler Kasak his only loss of the season. Bartlett tends to be in closer matches and doesn’t really push the pace — and Hardy has defeated him before at Big Tens last year — but this seems like the Nittany Lion’s year. Prediction: Bartlett by decision.

149 pounds: No. 9 Tyler Kasak (12-2) vs. No. 1 Ridge Lovett (20-0)

Cobler: Kasak bounced back from his first loss of the season to someone from an opposing team (he lost to Bartlett earlier in the season). Kasak topped Rutgers’ Michael Cetta, 7-5, but all of his scoring came in the first period. It seemed like something happened to Kasak as he took a tough hit during a mat return from Cetta in the second period, which Kasak appeared to do just enough to win in the third period. Lovett is back on the mat this year after redshirting last year. He enters this matchup with a dominating 11-4 victory over Michigan’s Austin Gomez last Friday. His experience is too much for the young Kasak. Prediction: Lovett by major decision.

Sauber: Penn State should be favored in almost every bout but this isn’t one of them. Lovett has been dominant this season and Kasak is coming off a tough loss in the Rutgers dual. Kasak is young and talented but Lovett is the best in the country at 149 pounds and doesn’t look like he’s going to be caught off guard by the Penn State freshman. Prediction: Lovett by major decision.

157 pounds: No. 1 Levi Haines (13-0) vs. No. 7 Peyton Robb (16-4)

Cobler: Like Bartlett-Hardy, these two have a history as well, but this time it favors the Penn State wrestler. Haines and Robb faced off twice last year with the Nittany Lion coming out on top both times. Haines topped Robb, 3-1, in sudden victory to claim his first Big Ten crown. Then, Haines beat Robb, 5-3, in the NCAA semifinals. Robb nearly didn’t wrestle this year after battling with necrotizing fasciitis, which is a bacterial infection, in his one leg right after the NCAA championships finished. Prediction: Haines by decision.

Sauber: Haines is building off his freshman campaign that saw him finish second at NCAAs by going undefeated through 13 bouts this season. He’s had a couple close matches but has won comfortably for the most part. You can make an argument that Robb is his toughest competition yet — I would — and will be an excellent test just a couple weeks before the 2023 Big Ten Wrestling Championships. Still, Haines has the advantage. Prediction: Haines by decision.

165 pounds: No. 6 Mitchell Mesenbrink (17-0) vs. No. 15 Antrell Taylor (16-4)

Cobler: Mesenbrink is an animal with a nonstop motor that I wouldn’t want to wrestle. His consistent pressure terrorizes opponents, and it was prevalent in his match with Michigan’s Cameron Amine, who nearly was stalled out of the bout. I look for him and Wisconsin’s Dean Hamiti to square off for the Big Ten title in a month, which will be an exciting match. Taylor has had a roller coaster season. He’ll go on a winning streak, and then lose, go on another winning streak a lose ... do you see a pattern here? Currently, Taylor is on a two-match winning streak, which won’t continue after Sunday. Prediction: Mesenbrink by major decision.

Sauber: No wrestler in the program has raised his stock more this season than Mesenbrink. Frankly, he’s probably ranked too low at No. 6 and has a chance to put up serious bonus points for Penn State in the postseason. He’s wildly aggressive and most of his opponents don’t have the gas tank to stay with him for an entire match. Taylor’s win over Cameron Amine of Michigan is the high point of his season, but Mesenbrink should be able to handle this one pretty easily. Prediction: Mesenbrink by major decision.

174 pounds: No. 1 Carter Starocci (10-0) vs. No. 33 Bubba Wilson (11-9)

Cobler: Starocci missed what could be his last Bryce Jordan Center dual because he was sick. Should he make a return on Sunday, he won’t have any troubles here. Wilson, who is a junior, has been a .500 wrestler his entire career. Should the NCAA championships get started today, Wilson would just get in as the No. 33 seed. Prediction: Starocci by technical fall.

Sauber: It remains to be seen if Starocci is winding down his Penn State career or if he’s simply working toward another NCAA title. The Nittany Lion is well on his way to his fourth career title and could have a chance to win a fifth if he takes home the crown this year and returns for his COVID year. He’s lost twice in his career and this won’t be the third. Prediction: Starocci by fall.

184 pounds: No. 6 Bernie Truax (10-2) vs. No. 3 Lenny Pinto (17-3)

Cobler: Truax has rebounded nicely since being pinned by Ohio State’s Ryder Rogotzke on Feb. 2. He’s won his last two matches without giving up a single point. Pinto is another Pennsylvania kid on Nebraska’s roster, joining Van Dee and Jagger Condomitti. Pinto, who went to Stroudsburg High School and claimed a PIAA title in 2020, was a NCAA qualifier last year. This year, he’s one of the favorites to win the 184-pound title behind Northern Iowa’s Parker Keckeisen and Oklahoma State’s Dustin Plott, who he beat in the Cliff Keen Invitational quarterfinals and lost to in the same tournament’s consolation finals. Prediction: Pinto by decision.

Sauber: This has a chance to be the best bout of the match. Truax has only lost twice this year, getting caught by Ryder Rogotzke of Ohio State and losing by decision to Oregon State’s Trey Munoz back in early January. He hasn’t been tested much this season and this match should be a good litmus test for him as he inches closer toward his first postseason as a Nittany Lion. Pinto has a legitimate chance to win the title at 184 pounds, and if Truax earns the upset he could find himself sneaking closer to that conversation. That being said, I don’t see it happening. Prediction: Pinto by decision.

197 pounds: No. 1 Aaron Brooks (12-0) vs. No. 13 Silas Allred (19-4)

Cobler: Allred played spoiler to former Penn State wrestler Max Dean last year, beating Dean twice. The first came in the Big Ten finals, where Allred was dominant in a 6-3 victory. He then kicked Dean to the consolation bracket with a 7-2 defeat in the round of 16. Brooks is better than Dean, and his domination of his new weight class — nearly 92% bonus point ratio — is reminiscent of how Bo Nickal did the same thing several years ago, but over three weight classes. Prediction: Brooks by decision.

Sauber: Brooks is too dominant to pick against at this point. Allred is good, but he’s not on the level he’d need to be in order to upset the Nittany Lion. I’ll take Brooks here by a landslide and I don’t envision a scenario where picking against him feels like the right decision the rest of the season. Prediction: Brooks by major decision.

285 pounds: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet (10-0) vs. Harley Andrews (10-9)/Nash Hutmacher (4-2)

Cobler: It seems like we can copy and paste what we’ve said about Kerkvliet’s other previous matchups in our bout-by-bout previews this season. It doesn’t matter who the other wrestler is that comes out and toes the line with the No. 1 wrestler, he’s going to come away with a win. Outside of Mesenbrink and Starocci, this match is the only other one of the dual for Penn State that is guaranteed bonus points. Prediction: Kerkvliet by major decision.

Sauber: Kerkvliet is primed to finish the regular season undefeated and neither Cornhusker is going to get in his way. He didn’t wrestle against Rutgers and not going against Nebraska is the only thing that would stop him from getting a win. If Kerkvliet goes, he’s going to dominate. Prediction: Kerkvliet by technical fall.

Final score

Cobler: This is a pretty talented Nebraska team. The Cornhuskers have a good shot of a top-three finish at the NCAA Championships in Kansas City on March 21-23. Nebraska will tie Lehigh for the most bout victories against Penn State this season in a dual at three, but still doesn’t have enough to dethrone the champs. Prediction: Penn State 25-10.

Sauber: Nebraska is really good, but this team isn’t good enough to win against Penn State. Frankly, nobody is this year. The Nittany Lions have been rolling all season and this is the time of year when they usually start to hit their stride. They’re primed for yet another win to keep the undefeated season going. Prediction: Penn State 31-7.

No. 3 Nebraska (11-1, 6-1 Big Ten) at No. 1 Penn State (10-0, 7-0)

When: 4 p.m Sunday

Where: Rec Hall

Radio: Big Foot Legends, 104.3 FM

TV: Big Ten Network

Online: Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com

X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest