No. 11 Ole Miss football vs. No. 8 Kentucky: Score prediction for Rebels' SEC opener
OXFORD − The fulcrum point of the Ole Miss football season is here.
The No. 11 Rebels (4-0, 0-0 SEC) host No. 8 Kentucky (4-0, 1-0) in their SEC opener on Saturday (11 a.m., ESPN). The outlook for the rest of Ole Miss' season hinges on this game. A Rebels loss has the team playing on its heels heading into SEC West play and in need of multiple tough road wins to keep hope of a New Year's Six bowl berth alive. A Rebels win puts Ole Miss at 5-0 before playing three-straight unranked opponents and creates a realistic path to an 8-0 or 9-0 start.
Fittingly, this game can swing either way. Here's the Clarion Ledger's scouting report and score prediction for Ole Miss football vs. Kentucky:
THE BIG WHY:Why Ole Miss football coach Lane Kiffin chose Jaxson Dart as his starting QB
LOOKING BACK:How Ole Miss athletics has changed in the 60 years since James Meredith's enrollment
Ole Miss football offense vs. Kentucky defense
Ole Miss' rushing attack is explosive. The Rebels have the No. 4 rushing offense in the FBS, averaging more than 280 yards per game. No Power Five team has more carries that have gone 20 or more yards than Ole Miss' 13 and only one Power Five team has rushed for more first downs than the Rebels' 60.
Kentucky has allowed the fewest rushing first downs of any Power 5 defense. The Wildcats are strong at limiting explosive plays (they've only allowed one 30-yard rush this season) but also don't make many explosive plays themselves (only one Power 5 team has fewer tackles-for-loss).
It's hard to imagine any defense completely taking away Ole Miss' rushing attack. But Kentucky's unit is solid, and arguably might be better at preventing the pass; the Wildcats rank in the top 15 in the FBS in fewest passing yards allowed per game, fewest passing yards allowed per attempt and passer efficiency rating against.
When it comes to completeness, Kentucky has a slight advantage here. But it might as well be a toss-up.
Ole Miss football defense vs. Kentucky offense
Kentucky quarterback Will Levis is one of the best, most well-rounded passers in college football. He's one of seven quarterbacks who ranks in the top 20 nationally in yards per game, yards per attempt, passer efficiency rating and touchdowns thrown. But he's playing behind an offensive line that has surrendered more sacks than any Power 5 team and alongside a rushing attack that averages the second-fewest yards per carry in the Power Five.
Preseason All-SEC running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. is making his season debut and that should help the Wildcats struggling run game. But the Rebels' strengths align with Kentucky's weaknesses. Ole Miss ranks top 25 nationally in sacks, tackles for loss and yards allowed per play and are one of 13 teams that have allowed fewer than 50 points this season.
No one should underestimate Levis' talents or how different Kentucky's offense will look with Rodriguez. But the offensive line play is enough of a concern to give the Rebels' downhill defense the edge.
Score prediction
Ole Miss 24, Kentucky 21: It's hard to imagine this game being a blowout in either direction. The defenses are too good and the offenses are too risk-averse. By virtue of having the home field advantage and a more consistent path to the end zone, Ole Miss squeaks one out to climb into the top 10 next week.
Contact Nick Suss at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicksuss.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss football vs. Kentucky: Our scouting report, score prediction
