How No. 12 Kentucky and No. 8 Miami match up — with a game prediction

How the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (5-1) and the No. 8 Miami Hurricanes (5-0) match up at each position for Tuesday’s ACC/SEC Challenge game in Rupp Arena — with a game prediction:

Small forward

▪ Among Kentucky’s lavishly hyped freshmen, Justin Edwards (10 points a game, 4.3 rebounds, 46.8 field-goal percentage, 33.3 percent three-pointers) has had the most challenging transition into college hoops. After going 0-of-6 from the floor in UK’s 89-84 come-from-ahead loss to then-No. 1 Kansas in the Champions Classic, the 6-foot-8, 203-pound Edwards has begun to show signs of life. In the three games since the loss to KU, Edwards, a Philadelphia product, has combined to make 11 of 20 shots.

▪ Miami’s Wooga Poplar (18 ppg, 6 rpg) has been scorching the nets from behind the 3-point arc to begin the 2023-24 season. The 6-5, 197-pound junior is shooting almost 60 percent (59.4) on treys, having made 19 of 32. Also a Philadelphia product, Poplar had 15 points, six rebounds, two assists and hit 3 of 5 three-point tries in the Hurricanes’ 91-83 win over Kansas State in the Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship on Nov. 19. In last season’s NCAA Tournament round of eight, Poplar had 16 points and hit 6 of 7 shots in Miami’s 88-81 win over Texas. Things did not go as well in the Final Four, as eventual national champion Connecticut held Poplar scoreless on 0-of-7 shooting in Miami’s 72-59 loss to the Huskies.

Advantage: Miami.

Power forward

▪ Kentucky’s Adou Thiero (8 ppg, team-high 7.4 rpg, 48.3% FGs, 16.7% treys) has had at least five rebounds in every game in which he has played this season. In UK’s prior marquee matchup of 2023-24, the 6-8, 222-pound sophomore from Leetsdale, Pennsylvania, came up huge, going for 16 points and 13 rebounds in the Wildcats’ loss to No. 1 Kansas. One thing Thiero has yet to get dialed in is his perimeter jump shot — he is 1-of-6 this season on three-point shots.

▪ A transfer from Florida State, Matthew Cleveland (16.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 62.7% FGs, 50% treys) was the high-profile addition that Jim Larranaga made to the Miami roster for 2023-24. The 6-7, 208-pound junior from Atlanta had a double-double, 16 points, 10 boards, in his first game with the Hurricanes, a 101-60 pasting of New Jersey Institute of Technology. Cleveland had 18 points and six rebounds in Miami’s 79-68 win over Georgia in the Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship.

Advantage: Miami.

Center

▪ Since falling into Kentucky’s lap as a graduate transfer from West Virginia, super-senior Tre Mitchell (15 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 56.5% FGs, 38.1% treys) has been a godsend for John Calipari’s Wildcats. In addition to Mitchell’s ability to function as a “stretch five” due to his outside shooting prowess, the 6-9, 231-pound Pittsburgh product has proven an adept passer — Mitchell has 21 assists vs. only three turnovers through UK’s first six games. Mitchell also leads Kentucky with eight blocked shots.

▪ A dominant rebounder who does not necessarily look the part, Miami’s Norchad Omier (15.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 52% FGs) is one of the most unique players in men’s college basketball. Listed (generously, in the case of his height) at 6-7, 240 pounds, Omier has averaged a points/rebounds double-double in all three of his prior college seasons — the first two of which were spent at Arkansas State. A native of Bluefields, Nicaragua, Omier was the 2021-22 Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year after averaging 17.9 ppg and 12.2 rpg. Last season, for Miami’s Final Four team, Omier averaged 13.1 ppg and 10 rpg.

Advantage: Even.

Shooting guard

▪ Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves (team-high 19 ppg, 5 rpg, 49.4% FGs, 44.7% treys) has scored at least 20 points in four of UK’s past five games. After adding some muscle via offseason work with the weights, the 6-6, 195-pound super-senior from Chicago has been much more of a factor as a rebounder this season than he was last year. Reeves has had at least four rebounds in Kentucky’s five most recent games. In 2022-23, he reached the four-rebound level in only six games all season.

▪ With the departure of 2022-23 ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong to the NBA draft, Miami’s Bensley Joseph (11.6 ppg, 3 rpg, 21 assists vs. 10 turnovers, team-high 12 steals) has moved from valued reserve a season ago into the starting lineup. The 6-2, 196-pound junior is the defensive stopper for the Hurricanes. In his new role, Joseph has shot the ball well, too. The Arlington, Massachusetts, product has made 55.6 percent of his 3-point shots (10-of-18) this season. The big stage that is Rupp Arena should not faze Joseph, who hit both his 3-point attempts and scored eight points against UConn in last season’s Final Four.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Point guard

▪ Kentucky freshman D.J. Wagner (14.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 22 assists vs. nine turnovers, 41% FGs, 26.9% treys) has heated up offensively over the past two games. In wins over Saint Joseph’s (96-88 in overtime) and Marshall (118-82), the 6-4, 192-pound freshman from Camden, New Jersey, has averaged 25 points and has made 17 of 31 shots combined. After going 1-of-9 on 3-point shots in UK’s first three games, Wagner has made 6 of 17 treys in the Wildcats’ three most-recent contests.

▪ In the Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship, Miami’s Nijel Pack (16 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 20 assists vs. 12 turnovers, 39.3% treys) lit up his former team, Kansas State, with a 28-point performance that included 7-of-12 3-point shooting. The 6-foot, 185-pound senior, an Indianapolis product, is expected to play more “on the ball” this season with Isaiah Wong having departed for the pros. In last season’s NCAA Tournament round of 16, Pack went for 26 points and hit 7 of 10 treys as the Hurricanes ousted No. 1 seed Houston 89-75.

Advantage: Miami.

Bench

▪ Kentucky uses two of its best players as reserves. Freshman guard Rob Dillingham (16 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 31 assists vs. nine turnovers, nine steals, 54.7% FGs, 14-of-28 treys) has averaged 16.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and seven assists over UK’s past three games. ... Freshman guard Reed Sheppard (10.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 21 assists vs. eight turnovers) has made 22 of 33 shots overall, and 14 of 21 3-pointers. The North Laurel High School product is tied for seventh in the country in steals with 19. ... Due to injuries and an eligibility issue, freshman forward Jordan Burks (1.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg), a 6-9, 202-pound product of Decatur, Alabama, has been UK’s sole front-court reserve this season. ... That could change, however, if Aaron Bradshaw, the highly touted 7-1, 226-pound freshman, makes his college debut Tuesday night. A Camden, New Jersey, product Bradshaw has been recovering after undergoing foot surgery in June.

▪ Miami has not gotten prolific bench production in 2023-24. Sophomore forward AJ Casey, a 6-9, 221-pound Chicago product, is averaging 3.2 ppg and 1.8 rpg. ... Christian Watson, a 6-7, 211-pound sophomore wing, is contributing 2.8 ppg. ... If the Hurricanes want to go big, Michael Nwoko, a 6-10, 245-pound freshman from Toronto, could get the call. Nwoko is averaging 2.2 ppg and making 57.1% of his shots.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Intangibles and history

▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Miami 3-1 but the teams have not met since the Hurricanes bested the Wildcats 73-67 at Rupp Arena on Dec. 6, 2008.

▪ UK head man John Calipari has never faced Miami as Wildcats coach.

▪ Hurricanes coach Jim Larranaga is 1-0 against Kentucky as a head man. When coaching Bowling Green, Larranaga recorded a 56-54 win over Eddie Sutton’s Wildcats in the semifinals of the 1988-89 UKIT.

▪ Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Kentucky is 6-17 against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 and is 40-35 versus teams from college basketball’s six major conferences (the football Power Five and the Big East) plus Gonzaga.

▪ UK is 652-81 overall in games played at Rupp Arena. In the John Calipari coaching era, the Cats are 225-21 at Rupp.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Miami 95, Kentucky 93.

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