How No. 17 Kentucky and No. 13 Alabama match up — with a game prediction

How the No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (18-8, 8-5 SEC) and the No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide (19-7, 11-2 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s men’s SEC basketball game at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center — with a game prediction:

Small forward

▪ Kentucky’s Justin Edwards (8.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg; 45.9% FGs, 31.1% treys, 75.7% FTs) hit 3 of 4 3-pointers and had nine points in UK’s crushing 75-74 loss at LSU on Wednesday night. However, the 6-foot-8, 203-pound freshman from Philadelphia had no rebounds in 19 minutes of game action. Edwards seems to have found some offensive rhythm: Over UK’s prior five games, Edwards is averaging 10 ppg and has hit 17 of 31 shots.

▪ Alabama’s Rylan Griffen (11.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.8 apg, 46.8% FGs, 39.7% treys, 82.8% FTs) is one of (at least) three guards in the Crimson Tide starting lineup. Even though the 6-6, 190-pound sophomore from Dallas, Texas, did not shoot well, he contributed 10 points, six rebounds and two assists to the Crimson Tide’s 98-93 overtime victory over visiting Florida on Wednesday night. Griffen hit only 2 of 11 shots vs. the Gators, 2 of 8 3-pointers. Nevertheless, he has scored in double figures in seven of the past eight games. Griffen had six points and three rebounds in 12 minutes in Alabama’s 78-52 crushing of Kentucky last season in Tuscaloosa.

Advantage: Alabama.

Power forward

▪ Kentucky’s Adou Thiero (7.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg; 48% FGs, 31.3% treys, 80.4% FTs) had eight points, nine rebounds, two assists, four blocks and two steals in the loss at LSU. Over UK’s prior seven games, the 6-8, 222-pound sophomore from Leetsdale, Pennsylvania, is averaging 8.7 ppg and 5.6 rpg. Thiero played 18 minutes in last season’s UK loss at Alabama without scoring, but did have five rebounds, an assist, a steal and a block.

▪ Alabama’s Jarin Stevenson (5.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 42.3% FGs, 31% treys, 74.2% FTs) got the start in place of an injured Latrell Wrightsell (head injury) vs. Florida. The 6-11, 210-pound freshman from Chapel Hill, North Carolina, missed all four of his field-goal attempts vs. the Gators, three of which were 3-point tries, and went scoreless. Stevenson did have four rebounds and a steal to show for 17 minutes of action vs. UF. Stevenson comes to Lexington in a shooting slump, having made 2 of 17 shots overall and 2 of 13 treys in Alabama’s past four games.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Center

▪ Kentucky sophomore Ugonna Onyenso (4.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, team-high 50 blocks; 57.8% FGs, 59.3% FTs) had a rough go at LSU. The 7-foot, 247-pound sophomore from Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria, had two points and three turnovers in 32 minutes. Onyenso did have seven rebounds but blocked only one shot. Against an Alabama offense that often plays “five out,” it will be interesting to see what role UK can find for its primary defensive rim protector.

▪ Alabama’s Grant Nelson (12.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.7 blocks, 48.6% FGs, 27.3% treys, 84.6% FTs) starred in the win over Florida, going for 22 points, eight rebounds and six blocks. The 6-11, 230-pound senior from Devils Lake, North Dakota, has been on a run of high-level offensive efficiency. Over Alabama’s previous three games, the North Dakota State transfer has made 16 of 23 shots.

Advantage: Alabama.

Shooting guard

▪ Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves (19.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 40 assists/32 turnovers; 49.5% FGs, 44.4% treys, 87.4% FTs) became the 62nd player in school history to go over 1,000 career points in the loss at LSU. Needing 24 points to reach 1,000 at UK, Reeves scored 25. A 6-6, 195-pound super-senior, Reeves is now a 1,000-point scorer at two different schools, having scored 1,195 points in his three seasons (2019-2022) at Illinois State. The Chicago product has scored at least 14 points in every one of UK’s 13 SEC games to date, and has had 20 or more points in eight of the 13.

▪ At the fourth stop of his college career, Alabama’s Aaron Estrada (13 ppg, 5 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.6 steals, 44.9% FGs, 33% treys, 88.6% FTs) is playing at a high level. The 6-3, 190-pound super-senior from Woodbury, New Jersey, had 20 points, eight rebounds, eight assists and four steals in the win over Florida. A former guard at St. Peter’s (2019-20), Oregon (2020-21) and Hofstra (2021-23), Estrada went scoreless in Alabama’s 79-75 win over Auburn on Jan. 24 but has averaged 14.3 ppg in the seven games since.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Point guard

▪ Since returning from an ankle injury four games ago, Kentucky’s D.J. Wagner (10.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 75 assists/36 turnovers; 41% FGs, 27.3% treys, 73.6% FTs) has struggled mightily with his shot. The 6-4, 192-pound freshman has made only 3 of 19 shots since his return. A Camden, New Jersey, product, Wagner has especially struggled with his 3-point jumper. He has missed his last 11 3-point attempts and has not made a trey in a game since going 2-of-3 in UK’s win over Georgia on Jan. 20.

▪ Alabama’s Mark Sears (20.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.7 steals; 50.8% FGs, 43.9% treys, 85.5% FTs) is a top candidate for SEC Player of the Year honors. The 6-1, 185-pound product of Muscle Shoals, Alabama, had 17 points in the win over Florida. That snapped a streak of eight straight games in which he had scored at least 21 points. In Bama’s rout of UK last season, Sears had 16 points, six rebounds, four assists and six steals. A transfer from Ohio University, Sears played against Kentucky at Rupp Arena while with the Bobcats, going for 10 points and five assists as Ohio U. fell to the Wildcats 77-59 on Nov. 19, 2021.

Advantage: Alabama.

Bench

▪ Kentucky freshman guard Rob Dillingham (15 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 95 assists/48 turnovers; 48.6% FGs, 44.5% treys, 73.1% FTs) scored 23 points in the loss at LSU, 21 of them in the second half. The 6-2, 176-pound product of Hickory, North Carolina, scored 21 of UK’s final 25 points in the game. ... Freshman guard Reed Sheppard (11.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 106 assists/47 turnovers, team-high 70 steals; 52.2% FGs, 50.9% treys, 81.1% FTs) had seven points on 3-of-7 shooting in the loss at LSU. The 6-3, 187-pound North Laurel High School product continues to have a remarkable season as a ballhawk. Sheppard had five steals at LSU and has pilfered the basketball from opponents 22 times in UK’s previous 5 games. ... Super-senior forward Tre Mitchell (12 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 68 assists/30 turnovers; 49.7% FGs, 33.3% treys, 73.1% FTs) missed his second straight game vs. LSU after suffering a shoulder injury in UK’s home win over Mississippi.

▪ Alabama brings a lot of front-court length off its bench. A 6-10, 198-pound freshman, Sam Walters (6.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg; 47.2% FGs, 45.2% treys, 83.3% FTs) had 14 points in the win over Florida and has scored a combined 25 points in Bama’s past two games. ... A 6-10, 230-pound senior, Nick Pringle (5.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 64.4% FGs, 48.9% FTs) blocked two shots in five minutes vs. Kentucky last season. ... A 6-10, 225-pound junior, Mohamed Wague (4 ppg, 2.8 rpg; 66% FGs, 50% treys, 73.5% FTs) has scored only two points combined in Alabama’s previous three games. ... A 6-7, 215-pound freshman, Mouhamed Dioubate (2.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 46.8% FGs, 11.1% treys, 43.2% FTs) had six rebounds in five minutes vs. Florida. .. Before his head injury, Latrell Wrightsell (9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.2 steals, 42.4% FGs, 44.5% treys, 100% FTs) had moved into the Crimson Tide starting lineup.

Advantage: Even.

Intangibles and history

▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Alabama 116-41. However, the Crimson Tide have won three of the past five meetings.

▪ As UK coach, John Calipari is 18-6 vs. Alabama.

▪ Alabama coach Nate Oats is 3-3 vs. Kentucky as Crimson Tide head man and is 3-4 vs. the Wildcats overall.

▪ Kentucky has lost three of its last four games at Rupp Arena and is 11-4 in home games this season.

▪ Alabama is 13-1 in games played in Tuscaloosa — and 6-6 in games played anywhere else in the world. The Crimson Tide are 4-4 in true road games.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Kentucky 87, Alabama 84.

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