Auburn Tigers men's basketball vs. Ole Miss: Scouting report, score prediction

AUBURN — Kermit Davis' fourth season as Ole Miss basketball coach was anticipated with cautious optimism: He fielded more new talent than ever, earning the Rebels a No. 9 preseason placement in the SEC. If they over-achieved and cracked into the upper half of the league, competing for an NCAA Tournament spot seemed plausible.

But after a 67-51 loss to Texas A&M on Tuesday, Davis was left claiming: "That's one of the softest teams, just coaching, that I've ever put on the floor since I've been at Ole Miss."

The team has dealt with injuries to its experienced players, exposing the young talent early to the rigors of a college basketball season. For No. 4 Auburn (15-1, 4-0 SEC), a trip to Ole Miss (9-6, 1-2) on Saturday (7:30 p.m., SEC Network) feels like a potential trap game, but certainly not a marquee matchup.

Here's the scout and prediction.

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Ole Missing two leaders: Jarkel Joiner and Robert Allen

Senior guard Jarkel Joiner is out six weeks with a back injury, Ole Miss announced Tuesday. He's the team's leading scorer (13.6 points), and he was averaging 3 1/2 more minutes per game than any of his teammates. He scored 20 in a highlight win over Memphis. Ole Miss already lost senior forward Robert Allen to a torn ACL in December. He was averaging 6.5 points and 5.8 rebounds.

In the first game without Joiner, whose 36 assists compared to just 12 turnovers, Ole Miss had 27 turnovers against Tennessee. It improved to its usual discipline with just 12 and 13 in the last two games — Ole Miss ranks No. 76 nationally in turnover margin — but with its depth tested, the bench was out-scored 22-9 by Texas A&M.

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Who steps up to carry scoring load for Ole Miss?

Ole Miss has two young guards emerging as the new leading scorers. Sophomore Matthew Murrell averages 9.6 points, including 19.7 in the first three games of league play without Joiner. Last Saturday against rival Mississippi State, he had arguably the best individual performance of the season by an SEC player: 31 points on 10-of-11 shooting, with four rebounds, two assists and two steals tacked on.

Then there's freshman Daeshun Ruffin. Jabari Smith is Auburn's highest-rated signee in program history; Ruffin holds that title for Ole Miss. The McDonald's All-American is averaging 11.7 points and 3.6 assists.

"They've got guys," Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said. "It just puts a little bit more on those other guys. It'll be like us not having (Allen Flanigan)."

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Auburn should annihilate inside

Duke transfer Jaemyn Brakefield was the other big-name newcomer to Ole Miss' roster. The 6-foot-8 forward added to a front-court featuring 7-foot senior Nysier Brooks. They combine for 18.3 points per game, and but Brooks averages 8.3 rebounds, but defending inside has been a struggle for the Rebels.

In the last two games, they have been out-scored a combined 88-54 in the paint. Texas A&M scored 18 layups and dunks; Mississippi State racked up 16 layups.

"They'll run some 1-3-1; they'll run some 2-3," Pearl said. "They'll change defenses in the middle of possessions."

Despite Brooks, Ole Miss is also last place in the SEC in rebounding margin (0.7 per game). It worked Tennessee to overtime in part by keeping the interior scoring gap to 26-22. Auburn is hoping to avoid more foul trouble for center Walker Kessler. If he and Smith get more minutes together, Auburn should gash Ole Miss inside.

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Prediction

Auburn 86, Ole Miss 72: Auburn is moving into best-in-the-country territory. The Tigers will get every opponent's best. Someone, eventually, will pull off an upset. It won't be Ole Miss.

This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Auburn Tigers men's basketball vs. Ole Miss: Score prediction