How No. 9 Kentucky and Louisville match up — with a game prediction

How the No. 9 Kentucky Wildcats (8-2) and the Louisville Cardinals (5-6) match up at each position for Thursday’s men’s college basketball game at the KFC Yum Center — with a game prediction:

Small forward

▪ Kentucky freshman Justin Edwards (9.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 45.1% FGs, 25% treys, 71.4% FTs) was productive (eight points, six rebounds) in UK’s 87-83 win over then-No. 9 North Carolina in the CBS Sports Classic last Saturday. However, struggles defending on the perimeter caused the 6-foot-8, 203-pound Philadelphia product to play only 13 minutes vs. the Tar Heels. Since hitting 3 of 4 3-point shots in UK’s 118-82 win over Marshall on Nov. 24, Edwards has subsequently gone 0-of-7 on treys.

▪ Louisville’s Mike James (12.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 42.2% FGs, 34.3% treys, 80.9% FTs) had 19 points and six rebounds in the Cardinals’ 85-63 strafing of Pepperdine on Sunday. The 6-5, 200-pound redshirt sophomore from Orlando, Fla., has scored in double figures in five straight games and has averaged 13.4 points and 6.4 rebounds in that stretch. In U of L’s 86-63 loss to UK last season at Rupp Arena, James had eight points and two rebounds in 30 minutes.

Advantage: Louisville.

Power forward

▪ Kentucky’s Aaron Bradshaw (10.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.3 blocks, 63.2% FGs, 66.7% treys, 54.4% FTs) had a put-back with 4:59 left in the game that gave UK the lead for good in the victory over North Carolina. Bradshaw finished with 12 points, three rebounds and two steals vs. the Tar Heels in spite of playing only 21 minutes due to foul trouble. Since launching his season three games ago after returning from a foot injury, the 7-1, 226-pound freshman from Roselle, New Jersey, has made 12 of 19 field-goal tries.

▪ Louisville’s Tre White (12.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 39.7% FGs, 25.8% treys, 71.9% FTs, 19 assists vs. 23 turnovers) had 10 points, six rebounds, three assists and two steals in the win over Pepperdine. After going four straight games shooting less than 50 percent, White made 5 of 7 shots vs. the Waves. The 6-7, 205-pound sophomore, a transfer from USC, has scored in double figures in 10 of 11 games this season.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Center

▪ Kentucky super-senior Tre Mitchell (12.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 37 assists vs. 13 turnovers; 54% FGs, 34.4% treys, 66.7% FTs) had eight points, five rebounds and two assists vs. UNC. After starting the season 7-of-17 on 3-point attempts, the 6-9, 231-pound transfer from West Virginia has made only 4 of 15 treys in UK’s past four games. The Pittsburgh product has had at least four rebounds in every game this season.

▪ Noted “big man doctor” Kenny Payne may be having another success with Louisville’s Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (9.2 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 49.2% FGs). In U of L’s past two games, a demoralizing 75-63 loss to Arkansas State and the win over Pepperdine, the 6-10, 240-pound junior has gone for back-to-back double-doubles with 20 points and 11 rebounds and 20 points and 12 boards, respectively. After scoring in double figures once in Louisville’s first seven games, Huntley-Hatfield has done so in three of the past four contests. The Clarksville, Tennessee, product had 10 points, four rebounds and four turnovers in U of L’s loss to UK last season. A transfer from Tennessee, Huntley-Hatfield has averaged 7.3 points and four rebounds in four career games vs. Kentucky.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Shooting guard

▪ Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves (team-high 17.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 49.2% FGs, 42.6% treys, 82.1% FTs) had nine points, four rebounds, an assist, a steal and a blocked shot vs. North Carolina. The 6-6, 195-pound super-senior from Chicago made only 2 of 9 shots vs. the Tar Heels. That snapped a stretch of six straight games in which the Illinois State transfer had made more than 50 percent of his shots. In last season’s victory over Louisville, Reeves had five points in 17 minutes of playing time.

▪ Louisville’s Skyy Clark (15.4 ppg, 3 rpg, 27 assists vs. 34 turnovers; 38.3% FGs, 27.3% treys, 80.7% FTs) is mired in a shooting slump. Over U of L’s prior four games, the 6-3, 205-pound sophomore has made only 16 of 54 from the floor. A transfer from Illinois, Clark as a high school prospect initially signed with Kentucky in the Wildcats 2022 signing class, but subsequently chose to part ways with the Cats program before playing for UK.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Point guard

▪ Kentucky’s D.J. Wagner (12.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 37 assists vs. 13 turnovers; 41.3% FGs, 29.4% treys, 73.1% FTs) was named SEC Freshman of the Week after tallying 14 points, six rebounds and five assists in UK’s win over North Carolina. Over UK’s prior two contests, the 6-4, 192-pound product of Camden, New Jersey, has 12 assists vs. four turnovers. When the Wildcats face Louisville, Wagner will go against the team that his grandfather, Milt Wagner, helped lead to the 1986 NCAA title.

▪ Louisville’s Ty-Laur Johnson (8.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 38 assists vs. 24 turnovers; 38.4% FGs, 24% treys 79.5% FTs) has been a positive contributor in the first stage of his freshman season. A 6-foot, 160-pound product of Brooklyn, New York, Johnson had five points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals and blocked a shot in the victory over Pepperdine. Johnson had 14 points and six assists in U of L’s 81-80 loss to Texas last month.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Bench

▪ With the insertion of Aaron Bradshaw into the Kentucky starting lineup, Adou Thiero (7.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 10 blocked shots, 53.2% FGs, 25% treys, 73.9% FTs) moved to a reserve role vs. North Carolina. The 6-8, 222-pound sophomore made that work, producing seven points, four blocked shots and two assists vs. the Tar Heels. ... Freshmen guards Rob Dillingham (14.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 45 assists vs. 17 turnovers, 46.1% FGs, 46.5% treys, 72% FTs) and Reed Sheppard (12.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 36 assists vs. 15 turnovers; 29 steals, nine blocked shots; 59.2% FGs, 57.1% treys, 93.3% FTs) both played big roles in the win over UNC. Dillingham, a 6-2, 176-pound product of Hickory, North Carolina, had a team-high 17 points vs. the Tar Heels, including a pair of crucial baskets late. Sheppard, a 6-3, 187-pound North Laurel High School product, had 11 points, six rebounds, two assists, two steals and a block. ... After recovering from a foot injury, Ugonna Onyenso, the 7-foot, 247-pound sophomore, made his season debut vs. North Carolina and scored a point and blocked three shots in nine minutes.

▪ Louisville freshman Curtis Williams (4.1 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 38/3% FGs, 37.5% treys, no free throw attempts) had a breakout game in the victory over Pepperdine, hitting 6 of 8 shots, 4 of 5 treys and scoring a career-high 16 points. For the 6-5, 205-pound product of Detroit, it was the first double-figures-scoring game of his college career. ... Former Male High School star Kaleb Glenn (1 ppg, 2.2 rpg) has struggled to make shots. The 6-6, 205-pound freshman is 5-of-15 on field-goal tries, 0-of-2 on 3-pointers and 1-of-7 on foul shots. ... U of L depth would get a major boost if 6-8, 190-pound senior forward JJ Traynor (10.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 51.6% FGs, 36.8% treys) and 7-foot-1, 215-pound freshman center Dennis Evans (1.6 ppg, 0.9 rpg, five blocks) were to return from shoulder injuries. In U of L’s loss at UK last season, Traynor, a Bardstown High School product, had five points and three rebounds.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Intangibles and history

▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Louisville 38-17.

▪ As UK head man, John Calipari is 12-3 vs. the Cardinals, but is only 3-3 vs. U of L in the KFC Yum Center.

▪ Louisville coach Kenny Payne is 0-1 vs. UK.

▪ This will be Kentucky’s first true road game of the 2023-24 season. In the 14 prior seasons of the John Calipari coaching era, UK is 5-9 in its first contest on an opponent’s home court and has lost the last three such games.

▪ The above factor could be mitigated by the composition of Thursday night’s crowd. Louisville’s largest announced attendance for a home game this season in the 22,090-seat KFC Yum Center was 11,538 for a 73-68 win over intra-city foe Bellarmine on Nov. 29. For its seven regular-season home contests, U of L’s announced average attendance is 10,662. With so much seating capacity going unused, it seems possible, maybe likely, that UK backers will make up the majority of fans in attendance at Thursday night’s Louisville home game.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Kentucky 83, Louisville 70.

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