No Easy Out for Trump Foes
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From the Stirewalt on Politics on The Dispatch
With the guy who was once his most formidable challenger for the Republican nomination just an absolute wreck and a general election rematch with Joe Biden seeming to be a jump ball, Donald Trump has resumed his place as the nightmare fuel for most Democrats and some Republicans.
Watching him pirouette through legal proceedings, defying court orders, and offering a running commentary on the cases against him must evoke bitter memories in the minds of his detractors. There are those feelings of frustration from when he dodged any consequences in the probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 election, ducked his impeachment for trying to extort political favors from the president of Ukraine, and weaved around a second impeachment for sending an angry mob to the Capitol to disrupt the certification of his 2020 opponent’s win.
Trump’s pursuers have so often believed they were this close to finally nabbing the culprit, and every time found themselves with the laughter of his supporters ringing in their ears. What confidence could they have that the criminal charges Trump now faces would be any different?
But what if Trump could be removed from consideration? That’s the idea behind cases now before courts in Colorado and Minnesota that seek to disqualify the former president from state ballots because of his encouragement of and maybe even tacit assistance to the January 6 attackers. These cases, like similar ones under consideration by officials in other states, including swing state Michigan, are made to tee up a Supreme Court showdown. The idea is that justices could rule Trump ineligible for the presidency under the Reconstruction Era’s 14th Amendment, passed to keep Confederates out of office.
We’ve talked before about the dubious merits of the idea, but watching the cases progress makes my initial concerns far stronger.
If it ultimately fails, as I suspect it will, the disqualification effort isn’t just wasted time and effort, it is explicit evidence in support of Trump’s claim that his enemies are trying to prevent voters from having their say.
And if it somehow succeeds, does anyone imagine that Trump and his backers in Republican-controlled states would quietly acquiesce? The chances for Electoral College chaos seem significant, especially with a new House speaker who once spearheaded an effort to try to block the 2020 certification.
For Trump’s foes, the only way out is through. The ballot box is the place for their fight, not the courtroom.
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STATSHOT
Biden Job Performance
Average approval: 41.2%
Average disapproval: 54.8%
Net score: –13.6 points
Change from one week ago: ↑ 1.6 points
Change from one month ago: ↓ 0.6 points
[Average includes: Quinnipiac: 39% approve-58% disapprove; NewsNation: 44% approve-56% disapprove; USA Today/Suffolk: 40% approve-56% disapprove; Emerson: 42% approve-50% disapprove; Grinnell/Selzer: 41% approve-54% disapprove]
Polling Roulette
[Gallup surveys of U.S. adults, 2001-2023]
TIME OUT: THE FIRST BEACH BUMS
Phys: “In a twist in the ancient human story, emerging evidence suggests that we may have worn shoes as early as the Middle Stone Age (75,000—150,000 years ago). This could mean that our species had complex cognitive and practical abilities much earlier than was previously thought. … In South Africa, it was believed that before 2,000 years ago, people weren’t wearing shoes. But trace fossils from three paleosurfaces (surfaces of considerable antiquity) found on South Africa’s Cape Coast change that narrative. … New evidence reveals that humans of the time wore some form of footwear to walk across the beach. … Dr. Berhnhard Zipfel, who is also a podiatrist, believes that the type of shoes worn were plakkies, or what we know as flip flops. … The researchers cobbled together primitive footwear. Wearing these, they walked up and down the very same beaches these hominins trod. … ‘There were amazing correlations,’ said Zipfel.”
DEMS LOOK TO DEFY ODDS IN RED-STATE GOVERNOR RACES
Politico: “Kentucky and Mississippi are both electing governors on Tuesday. In Kentucky, Andy Beshear, the incumbent, is facing Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. And in Mississippi, Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is trying to hold off a challenge from [Brandon Presley], a state public service commissioner. … Beshear has been aided by the fact that he has outraised and outspent Cameron throughout the race. Cameron, however, is keeping the race close. … Operatives on both sides of the aisle believe that the race has tightened since the summer. … Reeves’ path to victory is clear: Remind Mississippi voters how much they hate Biden, while pumping up wins in the state. … Democrats, meanwhile, say Presley is the best-positioned candidate they have had in decades. … There has also been increasing chatter that Presley could hold Reeves to under 50 percent, which would prompt a Nov. 28 runoff.”
Abortion on the ballot in Ohio: UVA Center for Politics: “This November’s Issue 1 would enshrine robust abortion rights protections into the state Constitution. … There are at least a couple of things that the anti-abortion rights side have working in their favor … First of all, the anti-abortion rights side has the ‘no’ side on the ballot, whereas in August they were the ‘yes’ side. There sometimes can be a so-called status quo bias that helps the no side in a ballot issue. … [But] based on the August vote, and the success that the pro-abortion rights side has had in some other ballot issues since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision last year, it may be that this election is not particularly close. ”
Virginia elections test abortion messaging ahead of 2024: Wall Street Journal: “Virginia’s odd-year elections traditionally offer signals about the electorate’s mood heading into national contests. … In a campaign that mirrors the political playbook across Virginia this year, [Democrat Russet Perry] is pledging to prevent a rollback of abortion access, while [Republican Juan Pablo Segura] emphasizes education, crime and cost-of-living concerns. … ‘Whoever wins this seat probably is in the majority,’ said J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. … If Republicans flip the Senate and hold the House, the GOP will have a trifecta with Youngkin in the governor’s office. … Backed by a GOP-led legislature, Youngkin could pass his proposed 15-week abortion limit with exceptions for rape, incest and to protect the mother’s life. … Several Democratic voters backing Perry said preserving abortion access was a priority.”
A SURGING HALEY PULLS EVEN WITH DESANTIS IN IOWA
Des Moines Register: “Support for Nikki Haley has swelled in Iowa: The former United Nations ambassador has pulled even with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in what has become a heated battle for second place in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. But former President Donald Trump still dominates the race. He’s ahead by 27 percentage points. … DeSantis and Haley are now tied for second place with 16%. That’s a drop of 3 percentage points for DeSantis, who was the first choice of 19% of caucusgoers in August. And it’s a 10-point jump for Haley, who was at 6%. … Trump now leads DeSantis with independents 33% to 12%. And Haley has also overtaken the Florida governor with independents: 22% list her as their first choice for president — up from 10% in August. … Of those who name DeSantis as their first choice for president, 27% name Haley as their second choice. But 41% say their second choice is Trump.”
Haley a clear second in home state, but Trump dominates: CNN: “Fifty-three percent of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina call Trump their first choice for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, with 22% picking Haley and 11% backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, whose campaign is currently focused on Iowa more than his home state, follows at 6%. … Trump’s support in South Carolina, though broad, falls slightly shy of his even wider leads over the field in recent CNN polls nationally and in Nevada. … Trump’s base of support in South Carolina is far more solid than his rivals’ pool of core supporters. An 82% majority of his current backers say that they’ll definitely support him.”
Scott snubs DeSantis with Trump endorsement: Sarasota Herald-Tribune: “Florida U.S. Sen. Rick Scott endorsed former President Donald Trump Thursday over his home state governor, adding to the growing opposition Gov. Ron DeSantis is encountering on his home turf. … Scott typically has shied away from endorsing in primaries… Last week prominent Jewish Republican state Rep. Randy Fine flipped his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump… Fine’s move undercut DeSantis’ aggressive efforts to promote himself as a staunch ally of Israel. … Scott’s endorsement comes as the Florida GOP is preparing for a big gathering on Saturday near Orlando that will feature both Trump and DeSantis.”
As campaign stumbles, Ramaswamy drops $12 million ad buy: Politico: “Vivek Ramaswamy is planning to spend a massive sum of money on an ad campaign designed to reverse his decline in the polls. The 38-year-old biotech entrepreneur will drop an eight-figure buy across broadcast, cable, radio, digital and direct mail in two key early voting states. All told, the expenditure will be to the tune of as much as $8 million in Iowa and $4 million in New Hampshire, beginning Saturday. … ‘If people thought he was aggressive with events leading up to this, stay tuned for post Nov. 8,’ [said senior advisor Tricia McLaughlin]. … Ramaswsmy is currently running fifth in both early states with roughly 4 percent of the vote.”
Barely registering in the polls, Burgum sticks around: New York Times: “Doug Burgum has largely self-financed his campaign, lending it more than $12 million — a further $3 million has come in from donations, according to the campaign’s most recent filing. He can afford to be quixotic. As of the end of September, his campaign had spent $12.9 million — more than the campaigns of Nikki Haley, Chris Christie and Mr. Pence combined. About a third of that was spent on television advertising time. … The super PAC backing him, called Best of America, had taken in more than $11 million as of the end of June from about two dozen wealthy supporters. … A major hurdle lies ahead: While Mr. Burgum’s campaign has the requisite number of donors, it has not yet met the Republican National Committee’s polling threshold for the third G.O.P. debate.”
Youngkin meda donor feeling frisky about presidential run: Forbes: “Thomas Peterffy, the billionaire founder of Interactive Brokers, has made no secret of his desire for Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin to become president. He has given $3 million to Youngkin’s political action committee since April and publicly urged Youngkin to enter the race. … [He] says Youngkin may reconsider if Republicans take control of Virginia’s senate in next week’s state election. ‘His hope is that … the Senate will flip Republican, and that would give him a platform on which we could say, “Look, I turned an all-blue state red, and I can do that nationwide. So please vote for me,”’ says Peterffy. … Peterffy says that he and ‘several tens’ of other Republican billionaires and mega-donors have been urging Youngkin to run.”
BIDEN ALLIES LAUNCH NEW HAMPSHIRE WRITE-IN CAMPAIGN
Politico: “Top New Hampshire Democrats [have] launched a write-in campaign for President Joe Biden, days after the president passed on putting his name on the primary ballot there. … The effort is designed to prevent Biden from suffering an embarrassment in what’s traditionally been the first primary state. … The write-in campaign is being spearheaded by veteran Democratic operatives and politicians including Jim Demers and Kathy Sullivan. … It’s backed by a who’s who of other top New Hampshire Democrats — including every Democratic state senator, both Democrats running for governor and former Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter. … The Biden campaign and the state Democratic Party are not involved in the campaign.”
As he starts a tour of Midwest battlegrounds: Reuters: “The [Minnesota] trip, the first stop in what the White House is billing as a two-week ‘barnstorming’ tour, will also see 13 top administration officials visit rural places in 15 states, including election battlegrounds like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona. … A Biden campaign official noted that Democrats improved their margins in rural areas in 2022 compared to 2020, winning over former supporters of former President Donald Trump. ‘We are treating these 2022 newly Democratic voters as key persuasion targets for 2024,’ [the official added]. … The White House and Biden’s campaign has planned an aggressive outreach to rural voters, who account for 30% of the electorate in highly contested North Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin, and around 22% in Pennsylvania. … Biden’s campaign is actively targeting Black farmers with a new television ad…”
RFK JR. RAKES IN CASH FROM TRUMP BACKERS
Politico: “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is collecting checks from past Donald Trump donors at a much higher rate than former Joe Biden contributors, a sign the independent presidential hopeful may pull more from the Republican electorate than Democratic voters. … Most of the $10 million Kennedy raised from large-dollar donors through Sept. 30 came from voters who did not make any federal donations during either the 2016 or 2020 election cycles. Of those who did, 2,100 donors — giving nearly $2 million — previously made contributions on the Republican donation service WinRed since 2020. … The data shows more than 500 of Kennedy’s biggest donors gave to Trump’s 2020 campaign, more than three times the number of donors who gave to Biden in that race. … The campaign finance data also suggests Kennedy may be sparking something new in the electorate: More than 60 percent of his large-dollar donors have no donation history…”
Poll: Kennedy tops 20 percent as he picks off Trump voters: The Hill: “Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears to pull more support from former President Trump than President Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup. … A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Biden narrowly ahead of Trump by 1 point — 47 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error — in a head-to-head matchup. But with Kennedy in a three-way race, Biden is ahead with 39 percent to Trump’s 36 percent and Kennedy’s 22 percent. … Pollsters found independents are almost evenly split among the three candidates, with 36 percent supporting Kennedy, 31 percent backing Trump and 30 percent with Biden.”
BRIEFLY
Schiff faces residency questions as California primary heats up—CNN
Tammy Murphy, wife of New Jersey governor, preps primary challenge to Menendez—New Jersey Globe
Blumenauer to retire, opening safe blue seat in Portland—Oregon Capital Chronicle
Rep. Ken Buck won’t seek reelection as GOP retirements grow—Colorado Public Radio
WITHIN EARSHOT: LIKE, SERIOUSLY
“Xi Jinping is loving this. So is Putin. How dumb can we be, man?”— Alaskan Sen. Dan Sullivan excoriates fellow Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville for his blockade of high-ranking military promotions.
MAILBAG
“Throughout the entire speaker fiasco I did not see one news article blaming Trump for the many House candidates he supported who lost their respective House races in ‘22. Those losses created the slim majority which in turn gave great leverage to that small far right group of nut cases. The whole fiasco was Trump’s fault but nobody’s talking about it.”—Tom Macmanus, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
Good point, Mr. Macmannus! We’ve seen lots of discussion about the role Trump played generally in diminishing the size of the Republican majority and in pieces like last week’s installment of this note about how that has intensified the problems in governance for the party, but not enough about the specifics. For instance, in at least four competitive districts where MAGA candidates beat out moderate or conservative candidates (including some incumbents) in primaries, Democrats got wins. Republican nominees like J.R. Majewski in Ohio, John Gibbs in Michigan, Joe Kent in Washington, and Bo Hines in North Carolina either denied Republicans a chance at an easy pick-up or lost a seat that had already been safely in GOP hands. With the House so narrowly divided, four more Republicans would have made a great deal of difference.
You should email us! Write to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name—at least first and last—and hometown. Make sure to let me know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the inquisitive Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!
CUTLINE CONTEST: HANDS-ON LEADERSHIP
A tricky, tricky one this week. Lots to choose from in this tableau from new House Speaker Mike Johnson’s debut. But it’s harder because Johnson himself is not speaking, standing instead with pursed lips listening to an aside from Rep. Roger Williams of Texas. There were a lot of good jokes about what Johnson might be thinking, but without the third-person narrator’s voice that a cutline needs. Many of you also, very understandably, focused on Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, who squeezed herself in next to Johnson. But our winner managed to hit the triple bank shot of making a joke about Boebert and Johnson’s look of concern and put the quote in the mouth of Williams, the only one talking in the photo.
“You’ll be okay, buddy. I’ve told her to keep her hands on the podium, where we can see them.”—Wendy Shank, Charlotte, North Carolina
Winner, Watch Your Back Division:
“With friends like these …”—John Connelly, Salt Lake City, Utah
Winner, Wait. What? Division:
“Why are they all looking at me like that? What did I just get chosen for anyways?”—Mitch Reed, Ballston Lake, New York
Winner, Strategery Division:
“How did I win? Paper covers rock.”—Allen Mabry, Dallas, Texas
And a little housekeeping! We failed to announce the winner of the October Cutline Contest last week, but our neglect was no reflection of our appreciation for the wonderful one-word entry from contestant Frank Virnelli Jr., of West Hartford, Connecticut. He captioned a photo of Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio standing beneath a portrait of George Washington, right arm outstretched, palm turned up, thusly: “Next.” Please email us with your mailing address, Mr. Virnelli, so we can send you your prize: A print of Washington from another Gilbert Stuart painting of the president taken from the original shown in the picture you captioned. The bonus: It was a Christmas gift from the Nixon family to White House staffers in December 1969.
Send your proposed cutline for the picture that appears at the top of this newsletter to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM. We will pick the best entrants for each week and an appropriate reward for the best of this month—even beyond the glory and adulation that will surely follow. Be hilarious, don’t be too dirty, and never be cruel. Include your full name and hometown. Have fun!
COOKING UP A DEAL
CBS News: “Now’s your chance to own a luxury California home — complete with ‘meth lab and meth contamination’ — for sale at $1.55 million. The six-bedroom house in tony San Jose offers a ‘great location’ with easy access to the freeway. … It’s in a quiet neighborhood, part of a good school catchment area and has a backyard planted with orange, apple and lemon trees. … It also has a big patio that is just perfect for entertaining. Oh, and a place you can cook up deadly and addictive illegal drugs. ‘Great opportunity to own a large home on a large 6,000sqft lot,’ says the listing on property website Redfin before sheepishly noting: ‘Home has inactive Meth lab and meth contamination.’ … A listing on Zillow notes the property’s seller increased the price $125,000 on Oct. 21.”
Nate Moore contributed to this report.
