No signs of offensive on Kyiv, but missile threat and provocations remain Ukraine's Defence Intelligence

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine believes that Kyiv will soon be more threatened by Russian missile attacks and provocations than by a repeated Russian offensive from Belarus' territory.

Source: Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, in an interview with Delfi [a news outlet in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – ed.]

Details: Ukrainian military intelligence officers see no signs that Russian troops will try to move on Kyiv through Belarus once again: "There are no such indicators and there is no powerful offensive group there."

Skibitskyi noted that the 2nd Mechanised Division of the 1st Tank Army of Russia, which had been practising at training grounds in Belarus, is now being redeployed and will enter the Kupiansk front (Kharkiv Oblast) from the territory of Russia.

According to him, "this suggests that there will be a rotation."

Quote: "However, we have strengthened our defence on the Kyiv front. The Russians will not have time to create a powerful strike group in two months.

There are two serious issues. The first is missile strikes: Belarus has Iskanders [short-range ballistic missile system] on its territory. The second is the [Russian] Air Force, in particular, Tu-22 aircraft, which are also capable of launching Kh-22 cruise missiles.

In addition, we do not rule out any provocations. However, this is not the kind of threat that suggests a new offensive on Kyiv is being prepared."

Background: Vadym Skibitskyi is certain that active hostilities would continue on Donetsk and Luhansk fronts in February and March, and that the further course of the war could be determined in the spring and early summer of 2023.

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